Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA 1
|
Total |
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
|||||||||||||
0.48 |
1.60 |
2.11 |
2.61 |
3.50 |
5.27 |
7.93 |
13.41 |
22.94 |
32.69 |
33.11 |
7.79 |
7.72 |
|
.32 |
.82 |
1.12 |
1.60 |
2.51 |
3.90 |
6.13 |
9.99 |
17.06 |
21.41 |
15.18 |
5.04 |
5.43 |
|
.27 |
.95 |
1.57 |
2.01 |
2.59 |
3.64 |
5.47 |
9.15 |
14.38 |
17.08 |
10.35 |
4.63 |
4.93 |
|
.40 |
1.09 |
1.75 |
2.40 |
3.01 |
3.75 |
5.15 |
8.39 |
14.83 |
17.59 |
9.96 |
4.70 |
5.04 |
|
.52 |
1.25 |
2.02 |
2.79 |
3.48 |
4.36 |
5.69 |
9.36 |
16.11 |
19.01 |
11.05 |
5.27 |
5.62 |
|
.58 |
1.62 |
2.52 |
3.42 |
4.26 |
5.13 |
6.52 |
10.42 |
17.97 |
21.26 |
12.08 |
6.14 |
6.48 |
|
.60 |
1.50 |
2.39 |
3.35 |
4.12 |
5.13 |
6.39 |
10.08 |
17.15 |
20.18 |
11.52 |
5.98 |
6.26 |
|
.49 |
1.33 |
2.11 |
3.07 |
3.93 |
4.73 |
6.07 |
9.72 |
16.73 |
19.94 |
11.47 |
5.74 |
5.97 |
|
.45 |
1.19 |
1.88 |
2.83 |
3.69 |
4.60 |
5.97 |
9.56 |
16.86 |
20.23 |
11.01 |
5.64 |
5.84 |
|
.42 |
1.08 |
1.67 |
2.51 |
3.34 |
4.21 |
5.61 |
8.97 |
15.68 |
18.62 |
10.15 |
5.24 |
5.38 |
|
.38 |
1.03 |
1.42 |
2.06 |
2.77 |
3.68 |
4.98 |
8.15 |
14.57 |
17.43 |
9.72 |
4.77 |
4.83 |
|
.38 |
1.05 |
1.41 |
1.99 |
2.71 |
3.74 |
5.10 |
8.24 |
14.22 |
17.14 |
9.37 |
4.80 |
4.80 |
|
.40 |
1.13 |
1.45 |
1.91 |
2.73 |
3.76 |
5.09 |
8.13 |
13.95 |
17.00 |
10.01 |
4.83 |
4.78 |
|
.42 |
1.26 |
1.51 |
1.84 |
2.66 |
3.64 |
4.91 |
7.93 |
13.71 |
16.93 |
9.60 |
4.80 |
4.70 |
|
.42 |
1.25 |
1.50 |
1.81 |
2.63 |
3.60 |
4.85 |
7.87 |
13.56 |
17.60 |
9.64 |
4.86 |
4.70 |
|
.42 |
1.26 |
1.50 |
1.82 |
2.65 |
3.62 |
4.88 |
7.90 |
13.59 |
18.43 |
10.47 |
5.00 |
4.76 |
|
.42 |
1.26 |
1.50 |
1.82 |
2.64 |
3.61 |
4.87 |
7.88 |
13.56 |
19.14 |
10.90 |
5.13 |
4.79 |
|
.42 |
1.26 |
1.49 |
1.82 |
2.62 |
3.60 |
4.85 |
7.85 |
13.53 |
19.85 |
11.02 |
5.24 |
4.81 |
|
.42 |
1.26 |
1.49 |
1.81 |
2.61 |
3.60 |
4.86 |
7.87 |
13.65 |
20.61 |
11.12 |
5.37 |
4.86 |
|
.42 |
1.26 |
1.49 |
1.81 |
2.61 |
3.61 |
4.86 |
7.87 |
13.69 |
20.89 |
11.07 |
5.48 |
4.88 |
|
.42 |
1.27 |
1.50 |
1.81 |
2.62 |
3.63 |
4.88 |
7.91 |
13.71 |
20.97 |
10.87 |
5.58 |
4.89 |
|
.42 |
1.28 |
1.50 |
1.81 |
2.64 |
3.64 |
4.91 |
7.96 |
13.79 |
21.27 |
10.10 |
5.69 |
4.93 |
|
.42 |
1.28 |
1.51 |
1.81 |
2.65 |
3.65 |
4.94 |
8.00 |
13.84 |
21.60 |
11.41 |
5.82 |
4.96 |
|
.43 |
1.30 |
1.53 |
1.83 |
2.67 |
3.69 |
5.01 |
8.12 |
14.05 |
21.80 |
11.53 |
5.97 |
5.03 |
|
Female |
|||||||||||||
.22 |
.77 |
1.26 |
2.17 |
3.11 |
4.91 |
7.07 |
11.63 |
18.86 |
23.29 |
20.05 |
6.19 |
6.17 |
|
.19 |
.38 |
.66 |
1.18 |
2.08 |
3.19 |
4.89 |
7.50 |
11.96 |
13.10 |
8.80 |
3.35 |
3.85 |
|
.12 |
.48 |
.85 |
1.33 |
1.83 |
2.72 |
4.08 |
6.78 |
9.79 |
10.49 |
6.46 |
3.00 |
3.35 |
|
.22 |
.60 |
1.02 |
1.50 |
2.10 |
2.90 |
4.30 |
6.90 |
11.03 |
11.24 |
6.45 |
3.26 |
3.63 |
|
.28 |
.74 |
1.18 |
1.78 |
2.50 |
3.36 |
4.79 |
7.83 |
12.45 |
12.32 |
7.14 |
3.75 |
4.12 |
|
.38 |
1.02 |
1.56 |
2.18 |
3.05 |
4.05 |
5.51 |
8.89 |
13.94 |
14.31 |
8.06 |
4.48 |
4.82 |
|
.35 |
.97 |
1.56 |
2.21 |
3.09 |
4.01 |
5.55 |
8.69 |
13.58 |
13.71 |
7.90 |
4.48 |
4.75 |
|
.32 |
.87 |
1.45 |
2.19 |
3.06 |
4.03 |
5.47 |
8.86 |
13.89 |
14.02 |
7.36 |
4.54 |
4.76 |
|
.32 |
.81 |
1.38 |
2.21 |
3.16 |
4.18 |
5.61 |
9.26 |
14.70 |
14.94 |
8.19 |
4.75 |
4.94 |
|
.27 |
.75 |
1.29 |
2.12 |
3.11 |
4.19 |
5.61 |
9.13 |
14.17 |
14.29 |
7.70 |
4.69 |
4.82 |
|
.26 |
.71 |
1.19 |
1.95 |
2.87 |
3.99 |
5.29 |
8.55 |
13.25 |
13.64 |
7.31 |
4.47 |
4.53 |
|
.23 |
.77 |
1.24 |
1.98 |
2.96 |
4.10 |
5.54 |
8.74 |
13.45 |
13.71 |
7.22 |
4.64 |
4.64 |
|
.25 |
.85 |
1.32 |
1.90 |
2.94 |
4.12 |
5.50 |
8.32 |
13.27 |
13.86 |
7.69 |
4.66 |
4.60 |
|
.30 |
.95 |
1.38 |
1.89 |
2.87 |
3.93 |
5.15 |
7.93 |
12.65 |
13.51 |
6.70 |
4.55 |
4.43 |
|
.29 |
.93 |
1.35 |
1.85 |
2.82 |
3.86 |
5.05 |
7.81 |
12.41 |
13.92 |
7.20 |
4.57 |
4.39 |
|
.29 |
.93 |
1.35 |
1.85 |
2.83 |
3.86 |
5.05 |
7.79 |
12.36 |
14.46 |
7.74 |
4.67 |
4.41 |
|
.29 |
.93 |
1.33 |
1.84 |
2.79 |
3.82 |
5.00 |
7.70 |
12.21 |
14.83 |
7.94 |
4.72 |
4.39 |
|
.28 |
.92 |
1.31 |
1.82 |
2.75 |
3.78 |
4.95 |
7.63 |
12.12 |
15.23 |
7.97 |
4.78 |
4.38 |
|
.28 |
.92 |
1.30 |
1.81 |
2.73 |
3.77 |
4.93 |
7.60 |
12.12 |
15.62 |
7.99 |
4.86 |
4.38 |
|
.28 |
.92 |
1.31 |
1.81 |
2.74 |
3.79 |
4.95 |
7.63 |
12.19 |
15.85 |
7.99 |
4.96 |
4.41 |
|
.28 |
.92 |
1.30 |
1.80 |
2.74 |
3.78 |
4.94 |
7.61 |
12.14 |
15.84 |
7.80 |
5.02 |
4.40 |
|
.28 |
.92 |
1.31 |
1.80 |
2.75 |
3.79 |
4.96 |
7.64 |
12.17 |
16.04 |
7.30 |
5.10 |
4.42 |
|
.28 |
.92 |
1.31 |
1.80 |
2.75 |
3.77 |
4.96 |
7.64 |
12.16 |
16.14 |
8.18 |
5.18 |
4.42 |
|
.29 |
.92 |
1.31 |
1.81 |
2.77 |
3.79 |
5.00 |
7.70 |
12.26 |
16.13 |
8.21 |
5.27 |
4.45 |
|
Total |
|||||||||||||
.38 |
1.26 |
1.78 |
2.47 |
3.38 |
5.16 |
7.63 |
12.75 |
21.40 |
29.19 |
28.10 |
7.21 |
7.01 |
|
.26 |
.63 |
.92 |
1.44 |
2.36 |
3.65 |
5.66 |
9.03 |
15.04 |
18.15 |
12.65 |
4.36 |
4.70 |
|
.20 |
.74 |
1.25 |
1.72 |
2.28 |
3.27 |
4.89 |
8.17 |
12.47 |
14.34 |
8.77 |
3.93 |
4.20 |
|
.32 |
.86 |
1.41 |
2.00 |
2.62 |
3.38 |
4.78 |
7.74 |
13.18 |
14.86 |
8.43 |
4.06 |
4.39 |
|
.40 |
1.01 |
1.63 |
2.34 |
3.05 |
3.92 |
5.29 |
8.68 |
14.51 |
16.10 |
9.38 |
4.59 |
4.93 |
|
.48 |
1.34 |
2.08 |
2.87 |
3.73 |
4.65 |
6.07 |
9.73 |
16.20 |
18.19 |
10.34 |
5.39 |
5.71 |
|
.48 |
1.25 |
2.01 |
2.84 |
3.67 |
4.63 |
6.01 |
9.45 |
15.56 |
17.32 |
9.92 |
5.30 |
5.56 |
|
.41 |
1.11 |
1.81 |
2.68 |
3.54 |
4.42 |
5.80 |
9.33 |
15.46 |
17.30 |
9.66 |
5.20 |
5.41 |
|
.39 |
1.02 |
1.65 |
2.55 |
3.46 |
4.41 |
5.80 |
9.42 |
15.89 |
17.87 |
9.74 |
5.24 |
5.42 |
|
.35 |
.92 |
1.49 |
2.33 |
3.24 |
4.20 |
5.61 |
9.04 |
14.99 |
16.68 |
9.04 |
4.99 |
5.12 |
|
.33 |
.88 |
1.31 |
2.01 |
2.82 |
3.82 |
5.12 |
8.34 |
13.97 |
15.73 |
8.61 |
4.63 |
4.69 |
|
.31 |
.91 |
1.33 |
1.99 |
2.82 |
3.90 |
5.30 |
8.47 |
13.86 |
15.59 |
8.41 |
4.73 |
4.73 |
|
.33 |
.99 |
1.39 |
1.90 |
2.82 |
3.92 |
5.28 |
8.22 |
13.64 |
15.57 |
8.97 |
4.75 |
4.70 |
|
.36 |
1.11 |
1.45 |
1.86 |
2.76 |
3.77 |
5.02 |
7.93 |
13.22 |
15.36 |
8.27 |
4.68 |
4.58 |
|
.36 |
1.10 |
1.43 |
1.83 |
2.72 |
3.72 |
4.95 |
7.84 |
13.02 |
15.90 |
8.51 |
4.72 |
4.55 |
|
.36 |
1.10 |
1.43 |
1.84 |
2.73 |
3.73 |
4.96 |
7.85 |
13.00 |
16.59 |
9.20 |
4.84 |
4.60 |
|
.36 |
1.10 |
1.42 |
1.83 |
2.71 |
3.71 |
4.93 |
7.79 |
12.91 |
17.14 |
9.53 |
4.93 |
4.61 |
|
.35 |
1.10 |
1.41 |
1.82 |
2.68 |
3.68 |
4.90 |
7.74 |
12.85 |
17.70 |
9.61 |
5.02 |
4.61 |
|
.35 |
1.10 |
1.40 |
1.81 |
2.67 |
3.68 |
4.89 |
7.74 |
12.91 |
18.27 |
9.67 |
5.13 |
4.64 |
|
.35 |
1.10 |
1.40 |
1.81 |
2.67 |
3.69 |
4.91 |
7.76 |
12.96 |
18.52 |
9.64 |
5.23 |
4.67 |
|
.35 |
1.10 |
1.40 |
1.80 |
2.68 |
3.70 |
4.91 |
7.76 |
12.94 |
18.54 |
9.45 |
5.31 |
4.67 |
|
.35 |
1.11 |
1.41 |
1.81 |
2.69 |
3.71 |
4.93 |
7.80 |
12.99 |
18.78 |
8.79 |
5.41 |
4.69 |
|
.36 |
1.11 |
1.41 |
1.81 |
2.70 |
3.71 |
4.95 |
7.82 |
13.01 |
18.99 |
9.90 |
5.51 |
4.72 |
|
.36 |
1.12 |
1.43 |
1.82 |
2.72 |
3.74 |
5.01 |
7.91 |
13.15 |
19.07 |
9.96 |
5.63 |
4.76 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." |
· Age-specific and gross rates computed as the ratio of annual awards, to exposure of the disability insured population not receiving benefits.
· Total adjusted rate by sex computed as the ratio of total age-adjusted awards, to total exposure of the disability insured population not receiving benefits as of calendar year 1998 (standard population).
· Total adjusted rate for male and female combined computed as the ratio of total age-sex-adjusted awards, to total combined exposure of the disability insured population not receiving benefits as of calendar year 1998 (standard population).
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001