Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA 1
|
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
||||||||||||
1.1 |
12.9 |
17.2 |
16.6 |
18.5 |
25.4 |
38.9 |
64.0 |
94.1 |
109.6 |
10.2 |
408.5 |
|
.9 |
7.7 |
10.2 |
12.8 |
15.8 |
20.1 |
28.1 |
45.8 |
73.1 |
71.9 |
4.9 |
291.2 |
|
.4 |
7.9 |
15.5 |
18.2 |
20.7 |
22.6 |
27.4 |
40.0 |
61.2 |
63.6 |
3.6 |
281.1 |
|
.7 |
8.4 |
16.9 |
23.4 |
27.1 |
29.6 |
30.9 |
39.7 |
59.4 |
64.3 |
3.3 |
303.6 |
|
.9 |
9.6 |
19.1 |
27.4 |
32.2 |
35.3 |
36.1 |
45.3 |
65.4 |
68.4 |
3.8 |
343.4 |
|
.9 |
12.0 |
23.2 |
33.9 |
40.4 |
42.1 |
44.0 |
53.3 |
73.5 |
75.2 |
4.2 |
402.7 |
|
.8 |
10.8 |
21.4 |
33.5 |
39.8 |
43.1 |
45.0 |
54.3 |
71.5 |
70.3 |
3.9 |
394.4 |
|
.7 |
9.2 |
18.4 |
30.7 |
38.5 |
41.1 |
44.7 |
54.2 |
71.3 |
68.9 |
3.8 |
381.4 |
|
.6 |
8.1 |
16.3 |
27.7 |
36.7 |
41.3 |
46.0 |
54.8 |
73.3 |
69.9 |
3.7 |
378.5 |
|
.6 |
7.2 |
14.4 |
24.0 |
33.5 |
38.8 |
44.4 |
54.5 |
69.7 |
64.9 |
3.3 |
355.5 |
|
.6 |
6.9 |
12.2 |
19.1 |
27.9 |
34.7 |
39.8 |
52.7 |
68.6 |
61.3 |
3.1 |
326.8 |
|
.6 |
7.1 |
11.9 |
18.0 |
27.3 |
35.8 |
41.7 |
55.6 |
70.7 |
61.3 |
3.1 |
333.0 |
|
.7 |
7.8 |
11.9 |
16.9 |
27.2 |
36.2 |
42.8 |
57.2 |
71.3 |
62.3 |
3.2 |
337.5 |
|
.7 |
9.1 |
12.1 |
16.2 |
26.0 |
35.5 |
42.3 |
58.4 |
72.2 |
63.0 |
3.2 |
338.8 |
|
.7 |
9.3 |
11.8 |
16.0 |
25.2 |
35.5 |
43.1 |
59.5 |
75.5 |
67.9 |
3.2 |
347.7 |
|
.7 |
9.8 |
11.9 |
15.9 |
24.6 |
35.9 |
44.3 |
60.4 |
80.4 |
74.6 |
3.5 |
361.9 |
|
.7 |
10.0 |
12.1 |
15.6 |
23.8 |
35.8 |
45.1 |
61.8 |
83.6 |
81.7 |
5.0 |
375.2 |
|
.7 |
10.2 |
12.3 |
15.2 |
23.2 |
35.4 |
45.6 |
63.2 |
87.3 |
88.0 |
6.3 |
387.5 |
|
.7 |
10.3 |
12.6 |
14.8 |
23.0 |
34.9 |
46.2 |
65.2 |
92.2 |
93.9 |
7.8 |
401.8 |
|
.7 |
10.4 |
13.0 |
14.5 |
22.9 |
34.1 |
46.6 |
67.1 |
94.8 |
100.4 |
9.4 |
413.9 |
|
.8 |
10.4 |
13.4 |
14.5 |
22.7 |
33.2 |
47.0 |
69.1 |
96.2 |
107.4 |
11.6 |
426.2 |
|
.8 |
10.5 |
13.7 |
14.7 |
22.5 |
32.4 |
47.3 |
70.9 |
99.1 |
114.0 |
12.6 |
438.5 |
|
.8 |
10.6 |
13.9 |
15.0 |
22.0 |
31.8 |
47.3 |
72.4 |
102.3 |
121.4 |
13.9 |
451.6 |
|
.8 |
10.9 |
14.2 |
15.5 |
21.7 |
31.9 |
47.2 |
74.5 |
106.9 |
128.4 |
13.9 |
466.0 |
|
Female |
||||||||||||
.3 |
4.3 |
6.5 |
6.4 |
7.0 |
11.2 |
18.5 |
32.4 |
46.9 |
46.2 |
3.8 |
183.5 |
|
.4 |
2.9 |
4.5 |
5.8 |
7.0 |
9.3 |
13.6 |
21.9 |
33.5 |
28.5 |
1.8 |
129.1 |
|
.2 |
3.3 |
6.8 |
8.8 |
10.0 |
11.5 |
14.4 |
21.1 |
29.6 |
27.8 |
1.5 |
135.0 |
|
.4 |
4.1 |
8.3 |
11.6 |
14.3 |
17.7 |
20.1 |
25.4 |
33.9 |
31.0 |
1.7 |
168.5 |
|
.4 |
4.9 |
9.4 |
14.0 |
17.7 |
21.5 |
24.1 |
30.3 |
39.0 |
34.1 |
1.9 |
197.4 |
|
.5 |
6.6 |
12.3 |
17.5 |
22.3 |
26.7 |
30.0 |
36.9 |
44.5 |
39.8 |
2.1 |
239.4 |
|
.4 |
6.1 |
12.0 |
17.8 |
23.5 |
27.4 |
32.1 |
38.3 |
45.3 |
37.9 |
2.1 |
243.0 |
|
.4 |
5.3 |
11.0 |
17.8 |
23.8 |
28.6 |
33.7 |
41.1 |
47.8 |
39.0 |
2.0 |
250.4 |
|
.4 |
4.9 |
10.5 |
17.7 |
25.1 |
30.6 |
36.8 |
44.6 |
52.6 |
41.8 |
2.2 |
267.1 |
|
.4 |
4.4 |
9.8 |
16.7 |
25.1 |
31.6 |
38.3 |
47.0 |
53.0 |
40.3 |
2.1 |
268.8 |
|
.4 |
4.4 |
9.0 |
15.0 |
23.4 |
30.9 |
36.7 |
47.3 |
52.9 |
38.9 |
2.0 |
260.9 |
|
.4 |
4.8 |
9.3 |
14.9 |
24.2 |
32.5 |
39.4 |
51.0 |
56.5 |
40.4 |
1.9 |
275.4 |
|
.4 |
5.5 |
9.8 |
14.3 |
24.2 |
33.4 |
40.7 |
51.7 |
58.7 |
42.3 |
2.0 |
283.0 |
|
.5 |
6.4 |
10.1 |
14.4 |
23.5 |
32.6 |
39.4 |
52.6 |
58.5 |
42.9 |
1.9 |
282.5 |
|
.5 |
6.5 |
9.8 |
14.2 |
22.7 |
32.5 |
39.9 |
53.7 |
61.2 |
46.0 |
2.0 |
289.0 |
|
.5 |
6.7 |
9.9 |
14.3 |
22.3 |
32.9 |
41.0 |
55.0 |
65.8 |
50.5 |
2.2 |
301.0 |
|
.5 |
6.8 |
9.9 |
14.1 |
21.6 |
32.7 |
41.6 |
56.2 |
68.8 |
54.8 |
3.1 |
310.0 |
|
.5 |
6.8 |
10.1 |
13.8 |
21.2 |
32.4 |
42.1 |
57.6 |
72.6 |
58.9 |
3.9 |
319.9 |
|
.5 |
6.9 |
10.3 |
13.5 |
21.2 |
31.9 |
42.7 |
59.4 |
77.2 |
62.6 |
4.8 |
331.0 |
|
.5 |
6.9 |
10.6 |
13.4 |
21.5 |
31.5 |
43.6 |
61.7 |
80.8 |
67.8 |
5.8 |
344.2 |
|
.5 |
7.0 |
10.9 |
13.4 |
21.5 |
30.8 |
43.9 |
63.4 |
82.5 |
73.1 |
7.2 |
354.0 |
|
.5 |
7.0 |
11.1 |
13.6 |
21.4 |
30.3 |
44.3 |
65.2 |
85.6 |
78.2 |
7.9 |
365.2 |
|
.5 |
7.0 |
11.2 |
13.9 |
21.1 |
30.0 |
44.3 |
66.7 |
88.7 |
83.2 |
8.8 |
375.4 |
|
.5 |
7.1 |
11.4 |
14.4 |
20.8 |
30.2 |
44.1 |
68.6 |
92.6 |
87.9 |
8.8 |
386.5 |
|
Total |
||||||||||||
1.4 |
17.3 |
23.7 |
23.0 |
25.4 |
36.6 |
57.4 |
96.4 |
141.0 |
155.8 |
14.0 |
592.0 |
|
1.3 |
10.6 |
14.7 |
18.6 |
22.7 |
29.4 |
41.8 |
67.7 |
106.5 |
100.3 |
6.7 |
420.3 |
|
.6 |
11.1 |
22.3 |
27.1 |
30.7 |
34.1 |
41.8 |
61.1 |
90.8 |
91.5 |
5.1 |
416.1 |
|
1.1 |
12.5 |
25.2 |
35.1 |
41.4 |
47.3 |
51.0 |
65.1 |
93.3 |
95.3 |
5.0 |
472.1 |
|
1.3 |
14.5 |
28.5 |
41.5 |
49.9 |
56.9 |
60.2 |
75.5 |
104.4 |
102.5 |
5.6 |
540.8 |
|
1.4 |
18.6 |
35.4 |
51.5 |
62.7 |
68.8 |
74.0 |
90.2 |
118.1 |
115.0 |
6.4 |
642.1 |
|
1.3 |
16.9 |
33.4 |
51.4 |
63.3 |
70.5 |
77.1 |
92.6 |
116.9 |
108.2 |
6.0 |
637.4 |
|
1.1 |
14.6 |
29.4 |
48.5 |
62.3 |
69.7 |
78.4 |
95.3 |
119.0 |
107.9 |
5.8 |
631.9 |
|
1.0 |
12.9 |
26.8 |
45.4 |
61.8 |
71.9 |
82.9 |
99.4 |
125.9 |
111.7 |
6.0 |
645.6 |
|
1.0 |
11.6 |
24.2 |
40.6 |
58.6 |
70.5 |
82.7 |
101.6 |
122.7 |
105.2 |
5.4 |
624.3 |
|
1.0 |
11.3 |
21.1 |
34.1 |
51.3 |
65.5 |
76.5 |
100.1 |
121.4 |
100.2 |
5.1 |
587.7 |
|
1.0 |
11.9 |
21.2 |
32.9 |
51.5 |
68.2 |
81.2 |
106.5 |
127.2 |
101.8 |
5.0 |
608.4 |
|
1.1 |
13.3 |
21.7 |
31.2 |
51.3 |
69.7 |
83.6 |
108.9 |
130.0 |
104.5 |
5.3 |
620.6 |
|
1.2 |
15.4 |
22.2 |
30.6 |
49.4 |
68.1 |
81.7 |
111.0 |
130.7 |
105.9 |
5.1 |
621.3 |
|
1.2 |
15.8 |
21.6 |
30.2 |
47.8 |
68.1 |
83.0 |
113.2 |
136.7 |
113.9 |
5.2 |
636.6 |
|
1.2 |
16.4 |
21.8 |
30.2 |
46.8 |
68.7 |
85.4 |
115.3 |
146.2 |
125.1 |
5.7 |
662.9 |
|
1.2 |
16.8 |
22.0 |
29.7 |
45.5 |
68.5 |
86.7 |
117.9 |
152.4 |
136.5 |
8.1 |
685.2 |
|
1.2 |
17.0 |
22.3 |
29.0 |
44.5 |
67.8 |
87.7 |
120.9 |
159.9 |
147.0 |
10.3 |
707.4 |
|
1.2 |
17.1 |
22.9 |
28.3 |
44.2 |
66.8 |
89.0 |
124.6 |
169.4 |
156.5 |
12.6 |
732.7 |
|
1.2 |
17.3 |
23.6 |
27.9 |
44.4 |
65.6 |
90.2 |
128.8 |
175.6 |
168.3 |
15.3 |
758.1 |
|
1.2 |
17.4 |
24.2 |
27.9 |
44.2 |
64.0 |
90.9 |
132.5 |
178.7 |
180.4 |
18.7 |
780.1 |
|
1.2 |
17.6 |
24.8 |
28.3 |
43.9 |
62.7 |
91.7 |
136.2 |
184.7 |
192.2 |
20.5 |
803.7 |
|
1.3 |
17.7 |
25.1 |
28.9 |
43.1 |
61.8 |
91.6 |
139.2 |
191.0 |
204.6 |
22.6 |
826.9 |
|
1.3 |
18.0 |
25.6 |
29.9 |
42.5 |
62.2 |
91.4 |
143.1 |
199.5 |
216.4 |
22.7 |
852.5 |
1 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age." |
· Historical awards from SSA administrative records.
· Projected awards computed by applying age-specific award rates to exposure of the disability insured population not receiving benefits.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001