Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
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III. BENEFIT PAYMENTS
B. NUMBER OF OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) BENEFICIARIES
Table III.B17—Retired Workers With Benefits In Current-Payment Status
(End of calendar years 1975-2000 and calendar half years 2001-10)
[Numbers in thousands]
Calendar period |
Male |
Female |
62-64 |
65 or older |
Total |
62-64 |
65 or older |
Total |
Number in current-payment status |
Percent of male retired workers |
Number in current-payment status |
Percent of calendar year change occurring in previous 6 months |
Number in current-payment status |
Percent of female retired workers |
Number in current-payment status |
Percent of calendar year change occurring in previous 6 months |
1975 |
849.6 |
9.27 |
8,315.0 |
9,164.6 |
55.39 |
876.9 |
11.81 |
6,547.6 |
7,424.5 |
65.29 |
|
886.4 |
9.41 |
8,534.5 |
9,420.9 |
67.64 |
904.2 |
11.68 |
6,840.2 |
7,744.4 |
63.47 |
|
933.4 |
9.61 |
8,781.8 |
9,715.2 |
69.00 |
948.5 |
11.70 |
7,158.0 |
8,106.5 |
65.80 |
|
923.2 |
9.30 |
9,006.3 |
9,929.5 |
92.12 |
960.3 |
11.39 |
7,469.6 |
8,429.9 |
73.61 |
|
941.9 |
9.24 |
9,252.1 |
10,194.0 |
64.18 |
987.0 |
11.24 |
7,790.7 |
8,777.7 |
60.94 |
|
998.3 |
9.54 |
9,464.5 |
10,462.8 |
68.56 |
1,024.5 |
11.26 |
8,077.1 |
9,101.6 |
65.59 |
|
1,068.0 |
9.92 |
9,699.0 |
10,767.0 |
64.17 |
1,046.5 |
11.10 |
8,381.8 |
9,428.4 |
63.73 |
|
1,145.0 |
10.38 |
9,888.7 |
11,033.7 |
67.58 |
1,089.8 |
11.20 |
8,644.0 |
9,733.8 |
63.86 |
|
1,208.9 |
10.64 |
10,153.8 |
11,362.7 |
51.27 |
1,121.1 |
11.14 |
8,939.8 |
10,061.0 |
59.54 |
|
1,258.3 |
10.87 |
10,318.4 |
11,576.7 |
67.86 |
1,154.1 |
11.17 |
9,180.0 |
10,334.1 |
64.90 |
|
1,288.9 |
10.90 |
10,531.0 |
11,819.9 |
63.57 |
1,171.6 |
11.04 |
9,443.9 |
10,615.4 |
61.51 |
|
1,314.8 |
10.88 |
10,768.9 |
12,083.7 |
61.96 |
1,183.3 |
10.85 |
9,717.8 |
10,901.1 |
61.06 |
|
1,336.2 |
10.86 |
10,962.3 |
12,298.5 |
52.48 |
1,198.2 |
10.75 |
9,947.1 |
11,145.3 |
55.51 |
|
1,335.5 |
10.69 |
11,155.0 |
12,490.5 |
53.48 |
1,196.9 |
10.53 |
10,175.1 |
11,372.0 |
56.36 |
|
1,332.4 |
10.47 |
11,389.8 |
12,722.2 |
56.49 |
1,181.4 |
10.18 |
10,427.7 |
11,609.1 |
58.67 |
|
1,336.0 |
10.29 |
11,650.7 |
12,986.8 |
57.33 |
1,166.8 |
9.84 |
10,687.5 |
11,854.3 |
57.56 |
|
1,345.8 |
10.18 |
11,880.6 |
13,226.4 |
58.59 |
1,149.7 |
9.53 |
10,916.9 |
12,066.6 |
59.95 |
|
1,353.0 |
10.04 |
12,120.9 |
13,473.9 |
59.25 |
1,140.8 |
9.28 |
11,146.9 |
12,287.8 |
61.01 |
|
1,346.2 |
9.86 |
12,303.2 |
13,649.4 |
64.97 |
1,128.1 |
9.05 |
11,331.5 |
12,459.7 |
67.16 |
|
1,346.3 |
9.76 |
12,448.6 |
13,794.9 |
74.63 |
1,136.4 |
9.01 |
11,481.0 |
12,617.4 |
71.42 |
|
1,315.6 |
9.45 |
12,602.8 |
13,918.4 |
71.64 |
1,124.2 |
8.81 |
11,635.9 |
12,760.1 |
68.25 |
|
1,293.8 |
9.23 |
12,722.8 |
14,016.6 |
85.38 |
1,121.7 |
8.70 |
11,766.8 |
12,888.5 |
76.78 |
|
1,275.0 |
9.03 |
12,847.7 |
14,122.7 |
73.38 |
1,126.7 |
8.56 |
12,032.3 |
13,158.9 |
82.34 |
|
1,281.4 |
9.02 |
12,925.2 |
14,206.6 |
80.39 |
1,151.2 |
8.65 |
12,159.7 |
13,310.9 |
60.44 |
|
1,296.8 |
9.05 |
13,031.5 |
14,328.2 |
75.17 |
1,175.0 |
8.73 |
12,280.3 |
13,455.3 |
65.51 |
|
1,329.1 |
9.00 |
13,442.3 |
14,771.4 |
27.62 |
1,217.4 |
8.86 |
12,516.5 |
13,733.8 |
38.15 |
|
1,355.7 |
9.14 |
13,480.2 |
14,835.9 |
56.22 |
1,247.5 |
9.03 |
12,566.2 |
13,813.7 |
49.49 |
|
1,362.4 |
9.15 |
13,523.8 |
14,886.1 |
43.78 |
1,255.1 |
9.03 |
12,640.2 |
13,895.3 |
50.51 |
|
1,368.3 |
9.13 |
13,623.0 |
14,991.3 |
72.32 |
1,267.4 |
9.07 |
12,702.2 |
13,969.6 |
43.90 |
|
1,392.2 |
9.26 |
13,639.3 |
15,031.6 |
27.68 |
1,289.9 |
9.17 |
12,774.7 |
14,064.6 |
56.10 |
|
1,399.5 |
9.24 |
13,749.4 |
15,148.9 |
77.26 |
1,297.7 |
9.18 |
12,839.4 |
14,137.1 |
40.87 |
|
1,428.6 |
9.41 |
13,754.9 |
15,183.4 |
22.74 |
1,329.1 |
9.33 |
12,912.8 |
14,241.9 |
59.13 |
|
1,443.5 |
9.41 |
13,902.9 |
15,346.4 |
80.00 |
1,346.3 |
9.40 |
12,982.3 |
14,328.6 |
39.70 |
|
1,503.2 |
9.77 |
13,884.0 |
15,387.2 |
20.00 |
1,402.0 |
9.70 |
13,058.3 |
14,460.4 |
60.30 |
|
1,521.3 |
9.76 |
14,058.6 |
15,579.9 |
80.00 |
1,420.3 |
9.75 |
13,139.9 |
14,560.1 |
38.94 |
|
1,593.8 |
10.20 |
14,034.3 |
15,628.1 |
20.00 |
1,493.2 |
10.15 |
13,223.4 |
14,716.5 |
61.06 |
|
1,606.7 |
10.16 |
14,206.3 |
15,813.0 |
74.12 |
1,506.9 |
10.17 |
13,311.6 |
14,818.6 |
38.43 |
|
1,658.2 |
10.44 |
14,219.3 |
15,877.5 |
25.88 |
1,562.0 |
10.43 |
13,420.0 |
14,982.0 |
61.57 |
|
1,659.3 |
10.34 |
14,390.5 |
16,049.8 |
63.64 |
1,566.0 |
10.38 |
13,526.4 |
15,092.5 |
38.35 |
|
1,663.6 |
10.30 |
14,484.6 |
16,148.2 |
36.36 |
1,582.4 |
10.36 |
13,687.7 |
15,270.0 |
61.65 |
|
1,674.9 |
10.23 |
14,690.0 |
16,364.9 |
59.11 |
1,615.9 |
10.48 |
13,801.3 |
15,417.2 |
38.60 |
|
1,719.8 |
10.41 |
14,795.0 |
16,514.8 |
40.89 |
1,653.0 |
10.56 |
13,998.3 |
15,651.3 |
61.40 |
|
1,751.3 |
10.43 |
15,042.0 |
16,793.3 |
55.38 |
1,741.3 |
10.99 |
14,101.6 |
15,842.8 |
38.55 |
|
1,877.3 |
11.03 |
15,140.4 |
17,017.8 |
44.62 |
1,819.8 |
11.27 |
14,328.4 |
16,148.3 |
61.45 |
|
1,912.6 |
11.10 |
15,310.9 |
17,223.5 |
41.06 |
1,885.7 |
11.54 |
14,456.5 |
16,342.2 |
38.15 |
|
2,053.5 |
11.72 |
15,465.3 |
17,518.8 |
58.94 |
2,003.6 |
12.03 |
14,653.1 |
16,656.8 |
61.85 |
Sources:
· Historical figures from SSA administrative records; future numbers of retired workers at end of calendar year shown earlier.
· Future numbers of retired workers at end of second quarter computed by age group; total computed by applying factor for portion of calendar year change occurring in first two quarters to total calendar year change and adding to number at beginning of calendar year; ages 62-64 computed by applying ratio for ages 62-64 to total number; ages 65 or older computed as residual.
· Historical ratio for ages 62-64 computed by dividing numbers of retired workers aged 62-64 by total number of retired workers. Future ratio for ages 62-64 at end of second quarter projected by regression on ratio at end of calendar year.
· Historical portion of calendar year change in total number of retired workers computed by dividing change in number of retired workers from beginning of calendar year to end of second quarter or from end of second quarter to end of calendar year, by total change in calendar year. Future portion of calendar year change occurring in total number of retired workers projected by regression on previous year's growth rate.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001