Short-range projections for the Social Security program

Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001 Actuarial Study No. 115 Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.

II. ASSUMPTIONS

Table II.4—Selected OASDI Program Amounts Determined Under the Automatic-Adjustment Provisions
(Calendar years 1978-2010)
Calendar year	AIME "bend points" in PIA formula		PIA "bend points" in maximum-family-benefit formula			Earnings required for a quarter of coverage ¹	"Old-law" contribution and benefit base ²
Calendar year	First	Second	First	Second	Third	Earnings required for a quarter of coverage ¹	"Old-law" contribution and benefit base ²
1978	(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)	(3)	⁴ $250	(3)
1979	⁴ $180	⁴ $1,085	⁴ $230	⁴ $332	⁴ $433	260	$18,900
1980	194	1,171	248	358	467	290	20,400
1981	211	1,274	270	390	508	310	22,200
1982	230	1,388	294	425	554	340	24,300
1983	254	1,528	324	468	610	370	26,700
1984	267	1,612	342	493	643	390	28,200
1985	280	1,691	358	517	675	410	29,700
1986	297	1,790	379	548	714	440	31,500
1987	310	1,866	396	571	745	460	32,700
1988	319	1,922	407	588	767	470	33,600
1989	339	2,044	433	626	816	500	35,700
1990	356	2,145	455	656	856	520	38,100
1991	370	2,230	473	682	890	540	39,600
1992	387	2,333	495	714	931	570	41,400
1993	401	2,420	513	740	966	590	42,900
1994	422	2,545	539	779	1,016	620	45,000
1995	426	2,567	544	785	1,024	630	45,300
1996	437	2,635	559	806	1,052	640	46,500
1997	455	2,741	581	839	1,094	670	48,600
1998	477	2,875	609	880	1,147	700	50,700
1999	505	3,043	645	931	1,214	740	53,700
2000	531	3,202	679	980	1,278	780	56,700
2001	561	3,381	717	1,034	1,349	830	59,700
2002	591	3,562	755	1,090	1,421	870	63,000
2003	620	3,737	792	1,143	1,491	910	66,000
2004	649	3,914	830	1,198	1,562	960	69,300
2005	677	4,081	865	1,249	1,629	1,000	72,300
2006	706	4,257	902	1,303	1,699	1,040	75,300
2007	737	4,443	942	1,359	1,773	1,090	78,600
2008	769	4,638	983	1,419	1,851	1,130	81,900
2009	802	4,835	1,025	1,479	1,929	1,180	85,500
2010	836	5,039	1,068	1,542	2,011	1,230	89,100

¹ See Glossary for a description of quarter-of-coverage requirements prior to 1978.

² Contribution and benefit base that would have been determined automatically under the law in effect prior to enactment of the Social Security Amendments of 1977. The bases for years after 1989 were increased slightly through the effect of a new procedure to determine the base, as required by Public Law 101-239.

³ No provision in law for this amount in this year.

⁴ Amount specified for first year by Social Security Amendments of 1977; amounts for subsequent years subject to automatic-adjustment provisions.

Sources:

� Historical figures published in various issues of the Federal Register.

� Figures for 2002 and later based on average amount of total wages.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A4 and V.B4 for low-cost and high-cost alternatives, respectively.

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December 26, 2001