Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

A. LOW-COST ASSUMPTIONS

Table V.A5—Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions
(Low-cost alternative, calendar years 2001-10)
Year
  Total
fertility
rate 1
  Age-sex-
adjusted
death rate 2
(per 100,000)
Period life expectancy 3
Net immigration
At birth
At age 65
  Legal
  Other
than
legal
  Male
  Female
  Male
  Female
2001
2.08
801.5
73.9
79.6
15.8
19.1
600,000
450,000
2002
2.08
800.6
74.0
79.6
15.8
19.1
680,000
450,000
2003
2.09
800.2
74.1
79.6
15.8
19.0
760,000
450,000
2004
2.09
800.5
74.1
79.6
15.8
19.0
760,000
450,000
2005
2.09
800.8
74.2
79.6
15.8
19.0
760,000
450,000
2006
2.10
801.4
74.3
79.6
15.8
18.9
760,000
450,000
2007
2.10
802.0
74.3
79.6
15.8
18.9
760,000
450,000
2008
2.11
802.7
74.4
79.6
15.8
18.8
760,000
450,000
2009
2.11
803.4
74.4
79.5
15.8
18.8
760,000
450,000
2010
2.12
804.0
74.5
79.5
15.8
18.8
760,000
450,000

1 The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2025.

2 The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 1990, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

3 The period life expectancy for any year is the average number of years of life remaining for a group of persons if that group were to experience the death rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

Source: Estimates prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report low-cost set of assumptions.

Table V.A6—Selected OASDI Short-Range Programmatic Assumptions
(Low-cost alternative, calendar years 2001-10)
Year
  Coverage rate 1
(percent)
Insured status
  Disability
incidence rate 2
(per thousand)
  Disability
termination rate 3
(percent)
  Fully 4
(percent)
  Disability 5
(percent)
2001
67.92
79.87
73.66
4.27
87.77
2002
67.92
80.28
73.91
4.26
87.36
2003
67.82
80.70
74.12
4.19
80.57
2004
67.68
81.15
74.26
4.13
80.48
2005
67.56
81.62
74.36
4.13
80.66
2006
67.44
82.08
74.44
4.12
81.17
2007
67.30
82.53
74.57
4.09
81.90
2008
67.21
83.05
74.73
4.05
83.70
2009
67.09
83.61
74.90
4.01
93.01
2010
66.97
84.14
75.08
4.01
91.02

1 The coverage rate is the number of persons with any covered employment during the year as a percentage of the total population aged 15 or older at the end of the year.

2 The disability incidence rate is the number of awards to disabled worker beneficiaries per thousand insured persons (not receiving benefits) under normal retirement age and is age-sex-adjusted based on the insured population as of January 1, 1998.

3 The disability termination rate is the number of disabled worker terminations (due to all reasons including death, recovery, and attainment of normal retirement age) per thousand disabled worker beneficiaries.

4 The fully insured rate is the number of fully insured persons aged 62 or older expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 62 or older, as of December 31.

5 The disability insured rate is the number of disability insured persons expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 15 to normal retirement age, as of December 31.

Sources:

· Covered persons used in calculating coverage rate from the Office of the Chief Actuary. Population figures from the Office of the Chief Actuary.

· Fully insured persons used in calculating fully insured rate from the Office of the Chief Actuary (projected based on historical relationship to population and coverage rates).

· Disability insured persons used in calculating disability insured rate from the Office of the Chief Actuary (projected based on historical relationship to fully insured and labor force rates).

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report low-cost set of assumptions.

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December 26, 2001