Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

V. ESTIMATES BASED ON ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

A. LOW-COST ASSUMPTIONS

Table V.A9—Operations of the OASI Trust Fund
(Low-cost alternative, calendar quarters 2001-10)
[In millions]
Calendar
period
Income
Disbursements
Inter-
fund
borrow-
ing
trans-
fers
Net
increase
in fund
Fund
at end
of period
Net
contri-
butions
Income
from
taxa-
tion
of
bene-
fits
Mili-
tary
ser-
vice 1
Pay-
ments
to
unin-
sured
per-
sons 2
Net
interest 3
Total
Benefit
pay-
ments 4
Admin-
istra-
tive
expenses
Trans-
fers to
Rail-
road
Retire-
ment
program
Total
2001-I
$115,257.6
$3,000.0
...
...
$253.9
$118,511.9
$92,283.7
$613.2
...
$92,896.9
...
$25,615.0
$956,601.3
2001-II
124,074.8
3,036.2
...
...
31,337.4
158,448.6
92,779.8
498.3
$3,226.8
96,504.9
...
61,943.7
1,018,545.0
2001-III
105,422.2
3,070.4
$450.0
...
183.3
109,124.8
92,961.0
487.3
...
94,313.2
...
14,811.6
1,033,356.5
2001-IV
100,086.9
3,060.2
415.3
-$0.7
33,037.9
136,599.4
93,513.6
687.3
...
94,200.9
...
42,398.5
1,075,755.0

2002-I
121,873.9
3,265.4
...
...
362.3
125,500.6
96,325.8
661.5
...
96,987.3
...
28,513.3
1,104,268.4
2002-II
131,532.8
3,284.9
...
...
35,287.3
170,104.3
96,902.7
537.6
3,588.5
101,028.9
...
69,075.4
1,173,343.8
2002-III
111,364.1
3,292.9
273.5
...
271.3
115,203.2
97,137.5
525.7
...
97,663.2
...
17,540.0
1,190,883.8
2002-IV
105,971.4
3,312.8
...
...
37,500.4
146,784.3
97,725.1
671.8
...
98,396.9
...
48,387.3
1,239,271.1

2003-I
128,316.3
3,531.0
...
...
166.7
132,013.7
100,448.0
646.6
...
101,094.7
...
30,919.0
1,270,190.2
2003-II
137,379.0
3,552.0
...
...
40,163.5
181,094.5
101,045.8
525.5
3,580.7
105,152.0
...
75,942.5
1,346,132.6
2003-III
116,531.6
3,561.0
259.8
...
176.8
120,528.8
101,302.2
513.8
...
101,816.1
...
18,712.7
1,364,845.3
2003-IV
111,885.3
3,582.5
...
.1
42,148.9
157,616.4
101,913.3
671.3
...
102,584.6
...
55,031.9
1,419,877.2

2004-I
133,093.0
3,790.3
...
...
298.8
137,182.1
104,480.0
646.1
...
105,126.1
...
32,056.0
1,451,933.2
2004-II
143,815.7
3,815.9
...
...
44,751.6
192,384.5
105,187.0
525.1
3,557.4
109,269.4
...
83,115.1
1,535,048.4
2004-III
122,054.1
3,828.3
247.8
...
270.4
126,400.7
105,526.7
513.4
...
106,040.1
...
20,360.5
1,555,408.9
2004-IV
119,558.7
3,852.6
...
...
47,342.3
170,752.9
106,198.5
676.0
...
106,874.5
...
63,878.4
1,619,287.3

2005-I
139,800.6
4,032.3
...
...
286.1
144,118.3
108,940.8
650.7
...
109,591.5
...
34,526.8
1,653,814.1
2005-II
151,741.6
4,061.7
...
...
50,423.8
206,227.5
109,737.3
528.8
3,521.4
113,787.5
...
92,440.0
1,746,254.1
2005-III
130,318.5
4,076.5
250.7
...
274.9
134,921.2
110,134.1
517.1
...
110,651.2
...
24,270.0
1,770,524.2
2005-IV
122,605.3
4,103.7
...
...
53,273.2
179,981.9
110,869.5
682.8
...
111,552.3
...
68,429.6
1,838,953.7

2006-I
147,818.1
4,281.2
...
...
269.4
152,369.6
113,767.4
657.3
...
114,424.7
...
37,945.0
1,876,898.7
2006-II
159,132.3
4,312.8
...
...
56,648.5
220,094.4
114,605.8
534.1
3,323.2
118,463.1
...
101,631.3
1,978,530.0
2006-III
135,097.3
4,329.0
252.8
...
257.5
139,936.5
115,036.3
522.3
...
115,558.6
...
24,377.9
2,002,907.9
2006-IV
128,403.7
4,359.8
...
...
59,819.9
192,582.7
115,855.1
689.4
...
116,544.5
...
76,038.2
2,078,946.1

2007-I
155,425.6
4,550.9
...
...
251.2
160,228.0
118,948.1
663.6
...
119,611.7
...
40,616.3
2,119,562.4
2007-II
166,770.4
4,585.4
...
...
63,495.0
234,850.4
119,849.3
539.3
3,482.8
123,871.4
...
110,979.0
2,230,541.4
2007-III
141,676.6
4,604.1
255.1
...
238.2
146,773.3
120,338.3
527.3
...
120,865.6
...
25,907.7
2,256,449.1
2007-IV
134,483.3
4,640.8
...
...
67,041.3
206,164.0
121,298.6
695.2
...
121,993.9
...
84,170.1
2,340,619.2

2008-I
162,353.6
4,858.0
...
...
231.4
167,443.4
124,707.6
669.2
...
125,376.9
...
42,066.5
2,382,685.8
2008-II
174,200.2
4,900.6
...
...
71,011.4
250,112.0
125,801.0
543.8
3,470.0
129,814.8
...
120,297.1
2,502,982.9
2008-III
147,617.3
4,925.3
257.6
...
218.9
153,019.2
126,437.0
531.8
...
126,968.8
...
26,050.5
2,529,033.4
2008-IV
141,676.4
4,971.0
...
...
74,957.5
221,604.6
127,607.4
701.1
...
128,308.6
...
93,296.0
2,622,329.3

2009-I
169,322.0
5,227.8
...
...
212.5
174,763.1
131,431.0
674.9
...
132,105.8
...
42,657.3
2,664,986.6
2009-II
181,568.0
5,281.4
...
...
79,341.6
266,189.9
132,780.4
548.4
3,496.6
136,825.4
...
129,364.5
2,794,351.1
2009-III
153,643.2
5,314.9
260.0
...
200.4
159,418.2
133,622.8
536.3
...
134,159.0
...
25,259.2
2,819,610.3
2009-IV
150,441.2
5,373.0
...
...
83,596.4
239,410.5
135,083.4
706.6
...
135,789.9
...
103,620.6
2,923,230.9

2010-I
174,793.5
5,666.5
...
...
194.0
180,654.6
139,211.2
680.1
...
139,891.3
...
40,763.3
2,963,994.2
2010-II
190,869.5
5,718.6
...
...
88,246.9
284,834.5
140,489.9
552.7
3,534.5
144,577.1
...
140,257.3
3,104,251.5
2010-III
163,000.1
5,752.9
262.7
...
181.2
169,197.2
141,333.0
540.4
...
141,873.5
...
27,323.8
3,131,575.3
2010-IV
156,372.9
5,820.7
...
...
92,914.1
255,107.9
142,998.2
711.5
...
143,709.7
...
111,398.1
3,242,973.4

1 Paid from the general fund of the Treasury. Includes payments for costs of noncontributory wage credits for military service performed after 1956.

2 Paid from the general fund of the Treasury. Includes costs of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72 before 1968.

3 Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Administrative expenses are charged currently to the trust fund on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment, including interest, made in the following fiscal year. The amounts of these interest adjustments are included in net interest.

4 Includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Relatively small reductions are made for the amount of reimbursement for unnegotiated benefit checks.

Source: All columns projected by methods described in text and in earlier tables describing projections for the intermediate set of assumptions.

Note: Estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report low-cost set of assumptions.

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December 26, 2001