Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Calendar
period |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Gross terminations
|
In force
end of period |
Benefits withheld end of period
|
In current-payment
status end of period |
||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rate
(per 1,000) |
Number
|
Per 1,000 in force
end of period |
Number
|
|||||
1983
|
2/
|
2.4
|
213.23
|
0.3
|
2.1
|
36.30
|
0.1
|
2.1
|
1984
|
2.1
|
2.6
|
259.21
|
.9
|
3.8
|
151.54
|
.6
|
3.3
|
1985
|
3.8
|
1.7
|
155.58
|
.7
|
4.8
|
192.54
|
.9
|
3.9
|
1986
|
4.8
|
1.7
|
158.26
|
.9
|
5.6
|
218.04
|
1.2
|
4.4
|
1987
|
5.6
|
1.8
|
187.01
|
1.2
|
6.2
|
230.23
|
1.4
|
4.7
|
1988
|
6.2
|
1.7
|
186.40
|
1.3
|
6.5
|
237.07
|
1.5
|
5.0
|
1989
|
6.5
|
1.3
|
166.48
|
1.2
|
6.6
|
246.79
|
1.6
|
5.0
|
1990
|
6.6
|
1.5
|
164.62
|
1.2
|
6.9
|
252.90
|
1.7
|
5.1
|
1991
|
6.9
|
1.8
|
164.32
|
1.3
|
7.4
|
253.50
|
1.9
|
5.5
|
1992
|
7.4
|
2.0
|
158.58
|
1.3
|
8.1
|
257.87
|
2.1
|
6.0
|
1993
|
8.1
|
1.9
|
167.16
|
1.5
|
8.5
|
269.94
|
2.3
|
6.2
|
1994
|
8.5
|
1.7
|
165.30
|
1.6
|
8.7
|
274.48
|
2.4
|
6.3
|
1995
|
8.7
|
1.5
|
164.80
|
1.6
|
8.7
|
279.14
|
2.4
|
6.2
|
1996
|
8.7
|
1.3
|
160.94
|
1.5
|
8.5
|
550.28
|
4.7
|
3.8
|
1997
|
8.5
|
1.0
|
159.98
|
1.4
|
8.0
|
579.83
|
4.7
|
3.4
|
1998
|
8.0
|
.9
|
170.43
|
1.4
|
7.5
|
628.72
|
4.7
|
2.8
|
1999
|
7.5
|
.8
|
180.44
|
1.4
|
6.9
|
649.97
|
4.5
|
2.4
|
2000
|
6.9
|
.8
|
167.70
|
1.2
|
6.5
|
672.79
|
4.4
|
2.1
|
2001
|
6.5
|
.9
|
156.59
|
1.1
|
6.3
|
675.01
|
4.2
|
2.0
|
2002
|
6.3
|
1.2
|
194.24
|
1.3
|
6.1
|
672.24
|
4.1
|
2.0
|
2003
|
6.1
|
1.4
|
200.97
|
1.4
|
6.1
|
676.56
|
4.1
|
2.0
|
2004
|
6.1
|
1.3
|
246.18
|
1.7
|
5.8
|
671.93
|
3.9
|
1.9
|
2005-I
|
5.8
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
5.8
|
671.32
|
3.9
|
1.9
|
2005-II
|
5.8
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
5.9
|
670.71
|
3.9
|
1.9
|
2005-III
|
5.9
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
5.9
|
670.09
|
4.0
|
1.9
|
2005-IV
|
5.9
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
5.9
|
669.48
|
4.0
|
2.0
|
2006-I
|
5.9
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
5.9
|
668.87
|
4.0
|
2.0
|
2006-II
|
5.9
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.0
|
668.26
|
4.0
|
2.0
|
2006-III
|
6.0
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.0
|
667.65
|
4.0
|
2.0
|
2006-IV
|
6.0
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.0
|
667.03
|
4.0
|
2.0
|
2007-I
|
6.0
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.0
|
666.42
|
4.0
|
2.0
|
2007-II
|
6.0
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.1
|
665.81
|
4.0
|
2.0
|
2007-III
|
6.1
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.1
|
665.20
|
4.0
|
2.0
|
2007-IV
|
6.1
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.1
|
664.59
|
4.0
|
2.0
|
2008-I
|
6.1
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.1
|
663.97
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
2008-II
|
6.1
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.1
|
663.36
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
2008-III
|
6.1
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.2
|
662.75
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
2008-IV
|
6.2
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.2
|
662.14
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
2009-I
|
6.2
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.2
|
661.53
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
2009-II
|
6.2
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.2
|
660.91
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
2009-III
|
6.2
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.3
|
660.30
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
2009-IV
|
6.3
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.3
|
659.69
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
2010-I
|
6.3
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.3
|
659.08
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2010-II
|
6.3
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.3
|
658.47
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2010-III
|
6.3
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.4
|
657.85
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2010-IV
|
6.4
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.4
|
657.24
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2011-I
|
6.4
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.4
|
656.63
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2011-II
|
6.4
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.4
|
656.02
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2011-III
|
6.4
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.4
|
655.40
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2011-IV
|
6.4
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.4
|
654.79
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2012-I
|
6.4
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.4
|
654.18
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2012-II
|
6.4
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.4
|
653.57
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2012-III
|
6.4
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.5
|
652.96
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2012-IV
|
6.5
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.5
|
652.34
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2013-I
|
6.5
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.3
|
6.5
|
651.73
|
4.2
|
2.3
|
2013-II
|
6.5
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.4
|
6.5
|
651.12
|
4.2
|
2.3
|
2013-III
|
6.5
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.4
|
6.5
|
650.51
|
4.2
|
2.3
|
2013-IV
|
6.5
|
.3
|
52.50
|
.4
|
6.5
|
649.90
|
4.2
|
2.3
|
2014-I
|
6.5
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.4
|
6.5
|
649.28
|
4.2
|
2.3
|
2014-II
|
6.5
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.4
|
6.6
|
648.67
|
4.3
|
2.3
|
2014-III
|
6.6
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.4
|
6.6
|
648.06
|
4.3
|
2.3
|
2014-IV
|
6.6
|
.4
|
52.50
|
.4
|
6.6
|
647.45
|
4.3
|
2.3
|
1This benefit became available on October 17, 1980, but was not paid in significant numbers until November 1983. 2Fewer than 50. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.