Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
1983
|
3.5
|
2.4
|
$66.58
|
0.3
|
2.1
|
$75.19
|
1.0154
|
$76.35
|
||||
1984
|
3.5
|
2.1
|
$75.19
|
2.6
|
68.71
|
.9
|
1.1383
|
$88.59
|
3.8
|
69.21
|
1.0876
|
75.27
|
1985
|
3.1
|
3.8
|
69.21
|
1.7
|
67.93
|
.7
|
1.2145
|
86.66
|
4.8
|
67.85
|
1.1262
|
76.41
|
1986
|
1.3
|
4.8
|
67.85
|
1.7
|
69.95
|
.9
|
1.2680
|
87.15
|
5.6
|
66.15
|
1.1475
|
75.91
|
1987
|
4.2
|
5.6
|
66.15
|
1.8
|
67.59
|
1.2
|
1.0307
|
71.05
|
6.2
|
68.39
|
1.1575
|
79.16
|
1988
|
4.0
|
6.2
|
68.39
|
1.7
|
67.10
|
1.3
|
.9748
|
69.33
|
6.5
|
70.07
|
1.1583
|
81.16
|
1989
|
4.7
|
6.5
|
70.07
|
1.3
|
70.12
|
1.2
|
.9034
|
66.28
|
6.6
|
73.64
|
1.1635
|
85.68
|
1990
|
5.4
|
6.6
|
73.64
|
1.5
|
71.78
|
1.2
|
.8208
|
63.71
|
6.9
|
78.32
|
1.1668
|
91.38
|
1991
|
3.7
|
6.9
|
78.32
|
1.8
|
79.93
|
1.3
|
.8620
|
70.01
|
7.4
|
82.00
|
1.1657
|
95.59
|
1992
|
3.0
|
7.4
|
82.00
|
2.0
|
80.52
|
1.3
|
.8594
|
72.58
|
8.1
|
84.63
|
1.1723
|
99.21
|
1993
|
2.6
|
8.1
|
84.63
|
1.9
|
80.18
|
1.5
|
.9417
|
81.76
|
8.5
|
85.97
|
1.1748
|
101.00
|
1994
|
2.8
|
8.5
|
85.97
|
1.7
|
87.79
|
1.6
|
.9990
|
88.29
|
8.7
|
88.32
|
1.1848
|
104.64
|
1995
|
2.6
|
8.7
|
88.32
|
1.5
|
93.36
|
1.6
|
1.0362
|
93.89
|
8.7
|
90.54
|
1.1773
|
106.59
|
1996
|
2.9
|
8.7
|
90.54
|
1.3
|
104.41
|
1.5
|
.9587
|
89.31
|
8.5
|
95.93
|
1.1229
|
107.72
|
1997
|
2.1
|
8.5
|
95.93
|
1.0
|
101.47
|
1.4
|
1.0032
|
98.26
|
8.0
|
98.43
|
1.1155
|
109.80
|
1998
|
1.3
|
8.0
|
98.43
|
.9
|
110.47
|
1.4
|
.9779
|
97.50
|
7.5
|
101.54
|
1.1356
|
115.31
|
1999
|
4 2.5
|
7.5
|
101.54
|
.8
|
114.91
|
1.4
|
.9842
|
102.43
|
6.9
|
105.79
|
1.1386
|
120.45
|
2000
|
3.5
|
6.9
|
105.79
|
.8
|
125.50
|
1.2
|
1.0166
|
111.32
|
6.5
|
111.25
|
1.1407
|
126.90
|
2001
|
2.6
|
6.5
|
111.25
|
.9
|
131.32
|
1.1
|
1.1097
|
126.66
|
6.3
|
114.96
|
1.1535
|
132.61
|
2002
|
1.4
|
6.3
|
114.96
|
1.2
|
131.44
|
1.3
|
1.0857
|
126.56
|
6.1
|
119.87
|
1.1384
|
136.46
|
2003
|
2.1
|
6.1
|
119.87
|
1.4
|
129.66
|
1.4
|
1.1228
|
137.42
|
6.1
|
123.32
|
1.1355
|
140.03
|
2004
|
2.7
|
6.1
|
123.32
|
1.3
|
129.99
|
1.7
|
.8104
|
102.63
|
5.8
|
138.15
|
1.0815
|
149.41
|
2005-I
|
...
|
5.8
|
138.15
|
.4
|
133.35
|
.3
|
1.0580
|
146.16
|
5.8
|
137.42
|
1.1333
|
155.74
|
2005-II
|
...
|
5.8
|
137.42
|
.4
|
132.37
|
.3
|
1.0000
|
137.42
|
5.9
|
137.09
|
1.1373
|
155.91
|
2005-III
|
...
|
5.9
|
137.09
|
.4
|
131.39
|
.3
|
1.0100
|
138.46
|
5.9
|
136.67
|
1.1456
|
156.57
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
5.9
|
136.67
|
.3
|
133.02
|
.3
|
1.1440
|
159.49
|
5.9
|
137.97
|
1.1413
|
157.46
|
2006-I
|
...
|
5.9
|
137.97
|
.3
|
133.24
|
.3
|
1.0580
|
145.97
|
5.9
|
137.26
|
1.1333
|
155.56
|
2006-II
|
...
|
5.9
|
137.26
|
.3
|
133.45
|
.3
|
1.0000
|
137.26
|
6.0
|
137.04
|
1.1373
|
155.85
|
2006-III
|
...
|
6.0
|
137.04
|
.3
|
133.67
|
.3
|
1.0100
|
138.41
|
6.0
|
136.77
|
1.1456
|
156.68
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
6.0
|
136.77
|
.3
|
136.83
|
.3
|
1.1440
|
159.92
|
6.0
|
138.55
|
1.1413
|
158.12
|
2007-I
|
...
|
6.0
|
138.55
|
.4
|
137.22
|
.3
|
1.0580
|
146.58
|
6.0
|
138.04
|
1.1333
|
156.44
|
2007-II
|
...
|
6.0
|
138.04
|
.4
|
137.61
|
.3
|
1.0000
|
138.04
|
6.1
|
138.01
|
1.1373
|
156.96
|
2007-III
|
...
|
6.1
|
138.01
|
.4
|
138.00
|
.3
|
1.0100
|
139.39
|
6.1
|
137.94
|
1.1456
|
158.02
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
6.1
|
137.94
|
.3
|
142.13
|
.3
|
1.1440
|
162.08
|
6.1
|
140.58
|
1.1413
|
160.44
|
2008-I
|
...
|
6.1
|
140.58
|
.4
|
142.73
|
.3
|
1.0580
|
148.73
|
6.1
|
140.29
|
1.1333
|
158.99
|
2008-II
|
...
|
6.1
|
140.29
|
.4
|
143.32
|
.3
|
1.0000
|
140.29
|
6.1
|
140.44
|
1.1373
|
159.72
|
2008-III
|
...
|
6.1
|
140.44
|
.4
|
143.91
|
.3
|
1.0100
|
141.85
|
6.2
|
140.57
|
1.1456
|
161.03
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
6.2
|
140.57
|
.3
|
148.55
|
.3
|
1.1440
|
165.33
|
6.2
|
143.61
|
1.1413
|
163.91
|
2009-I
|
...
|
6.2
|
143.61
|
.4
|
149.15
|
.3
|
1.0580
|
151.94
|
6.2
|
143.50
|
1.1333
|
162.63
|
2009-II
|
...
|
6.2
|
143.50
|
.4
|
149.74
|
.3
|
1.0000
|
143.50
|
6.2
|
143.87
|
1.1373
|
163.63
|
2009-III
|
...
|
6.2
|
143.87
|
.4
|
150.33
|
.3
|
1.0100
|
145.31
|
6.3
|
144.18
|
1.1456
|
165.17
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
6.3
|
144.18
|
.4
|
155.15
|
.3
|
1.1440
|
169.58
|
6.3
|
147.49
|
1.1413
|
168.33
|
2010-I
|
...
|
6.3
|
147.49
|
.4
|
155.89
|
.3
|
1.0580
|
156.05
|
6.3
|
147.52
|
1.1333
|
167.18
|
2010-II
|
...
|
6.3
|
147.52
|
.4
|
156.63
|
.3
|
1.0000
|
147.52
|
6.3
|
148.02
|
1.1373
|
168.35
|
2010-III
|
...
|
6.3
|
148.02
|
.4
|
157.37
|
.3
|
1.0100
|
149.50
|
6.4
|
148.48
|
1.1456
|
170.10
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
6.4
|
148.48
|
.3
|
162.54
|
.3
|
1.1440
|
174.64
|
6.4
|
151.98
|
1.1413
|
173.45
|
2011-I
|
...
|
6.4
|
151.98
|
.4
|
163.35
|
.3
|
1.0580
|
160.79
|
6.4
|
152.15
|
1.1333
|
172.43
|
2011-II
|
...
|
6.4
|
152.15
|
.4
|
164.16
|
.3
|
1.0000
|
152.15
|
6.4
|
152.83
|
1.1373
|
173.81
|
2011-III
|
...
|
6.4
|
152.83
|
.4
|
164.97
|
.3
|
1.0100
|
154.36
|
6.4
|
153.43
|
1.1456
|
175.77
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
6.4
|
153.43
|
.3
|
170.42
|
.3
|
1.1440
|
180.46
|
6.4
|
157.22
|
1.1413
|
179.43
|
2012-I
|
...
|
6.4
|
157.22
|
.4
|
171.12
|
.3
|
1.0580
|
166.33
|
6.4
|
157.52
|
1.1333
|
178.52
|
2012-II
|
...
|
6.4
|
157.52
|
.4
|
171.82
|
.3
|
1.0000
|
157.52
|
6.4
|
158.34
|
1.1373
|
180.08
|
2012-III
|
...
|
6.4
|
158.34
|
.4
|
172.51
|
.3
|
1.0100
|
159.92
|
6.5
|
159.09
|
1.1456
|
182.25
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
6.5
|
159.09
|
.3
|
178.06
|
.3
|
1.1440
|
187.11
|
6.5
|
163.07
|
1.1413
|
186.11
|
2013-I
|
...
|
6.5
|
163.07
|
.4
|
178.77
|
.3
|
1.0580
|
172.52
|
6.5
|
163.43
|
1.1333
|
185.21
|
2013-II
|
...
|
6.5
|
163.43
|
.4
|
179.47
|
.4
|
1.0000
|
163.43
|
6.5
|
164.34
|
1.1373
|
186.90
|
2013-III
|
...
|
6.5
|
164.34
|
.4
|
180.17
|
.4
|
1.0100
|
165.98
|
6.5
|
165.14
|
1.1456
|
189.19
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
6.5
|
165.14
|
.3
|
185.94
|
.4
|
1.1440
|
194.23
|
6.5
|
169.33
|
1.1413
|
193.25
|
2014-I
|
...
|
6.5
|
169.33
|
.4
|
186.63
|
.4
|
1.0580
|
179.15
|
6.5
|
169.79
|
1.1333
|
192.42
|
2014-II
|
...
|
6.5
|
169.79
|
.4
|
187.33
|
.4
|
1.0000
|
169.79
|
6.6
|
170.77
|
1.1373
|
194.21
|
2014-III
|
...
|
6.6
|
170.77
|
.4
|
188.02
|
.4
|
1.0100
|
172.47
|
6.6
|
171.66
|
1.1456
|
196.65
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
6.6
|
171.66
|
.4
|
194.00
|
.4
|
1.1440
|
201.89
|
6.6
|
176.07
|
1.1413
|
200.95
|
1This benefit became available on October 17, 1980, but was not paid in significant numbers until November 1983. 2Fewer than 50. 3Reliable data not available. 4Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.