Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
 |
 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Income
|
Disbursements
|
|||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Net
contri- butions |
Military service 2
|
Net
interest 4 |
Total
|
Benefit
payments 5 |
Administrative
expenses |
Transfers to
Railroad Retirement program |
Total
|
Net
increase in funds |
Funds
at end of period |
||||
|
1980
|
$116,709.8
|
...
|
$520.5
|
$149.8
|
$2,330.6
|
$119,712.3
|
$120,597.9
|
$1,522.0
|
$1,429.9
|
$123,550.3
|
...
|
-$3,838.0
|
$26,452.5
|
|
1981
|
139,365.2
|
...
|
702.5
|
140.4
|
2,231.6
|
142,438.8
|
140,994.8
|
1,743.0
|
1,614.3
|
144,352.6
|
...
|
-1,913.8
|
24,538.7
|
|
1982
|
145,668.2
|
...
|
715.8
|
138.7
|
1,391.4
|
147,913.3
|
156,181.3
|
2,109.0
|
1,819.7
|
160,111.1
|
$12,437.3
|
239.5
|
24,778.2
|
|
1983
|
150,261.9
|
...
|
12,602.0
|
124.5
|
8,275.8
|
171,265.6
|
166,744.6
|
2,153.0
|
2,278.6
|
171,176.6
|
...
|
89.0
|
24,867.2
|
|
1984
|
179,194.1
|
$3,024.9
|
874.0
|
105.0
|
3,440.4
|
186,636.9
|
175,739.1
|
2,264.0
|
2,425.6
|
180,428.6
|
...
|
6,208.2
|
31,075.4
|
|
1985
|
193,790.9
|
3,429.7
|
3,577.0
|
...
|
2,741.5
|
203,539.9
|
186,074.8
|
2,200.0
|
2,352.8
|
190,628.0
|
-1,824.0
|
11,087.8
|
42,163.3
|
|
1986
|
208,785.2
|
3,661.2
|
356.0
|
159.7
|
3,871.1
|
216,832.6
|
196,666.1
|
2,201.9
|
2,652.8
|
201,521.5
|
-10,613.3
|
4,697.9
|
46,861.1
|
|
1987
|
222,056.2
|
3,221.3
|
368.9
|
54.6
|
5,337.6
|
231,038.7
|
204,105.9
|
2,372.9
|
2,614.2
|
209,092.9
|
...
|
21,945.8
|
68,807.0
|
|
1988
|
251,502.6
|
3,445.1
|
311.0
|
42.6
|
8,167.9
|
263,469.3
|
217,149.5
|
2,513.2
|
2,851.3
|
222,513.8
|
...
|
40,955.5
|
109,762.5
|
|
1989
|
273,854.5
|
2,534.0
|
334.5
|
34.0
|
12,691.5
|
289,448.0
|
230,882.0
|
2,428.0
|
2,933.5
|
236,242.5
|
...
|
53,205.6
|
162,968.0
|
|
1990
|
295,569.5
|
4,992.2
|
-2,389.0
|
25.5
|
17,245.3
|
315,443.4
|
247,816.0
|
2,269.3
|
3,049.2
|
253,134.9
|
...
|
62,308.5
|
225,276.6
|
|
1991
|
301,318.0
|
6,054.2
|
392.9
|
18.9
|
21,891.8
|
329,675.8
|
268,162.0
|
2,586.6
|
3,456.7
|
274,205.3
|
...
|
55,470.6
|
280,747.1
|
|
1992
|
310,765.5
|
6,084.1
|
362.5
|
14.1
|
25,365.1
|
342,591.4
|
285,994.6
|
2,664.1
|
3,206.4
|
291,865.0
|
...
|
50,726.4
|
331,473.5
|
|
1993
|
321,750.8
|
5,615.5
|
339.6
|
10.1
|
27,862.0
|
355,577.9
|
302,368.2
|
2,962.6
|
3,435.4
|
308,766.2
|
...
|
46,811.7
|
378,285.2
|
|
1994
|
344,358.7
|
5,305.7
|
336.8
|
7.0
|
31,103.1
|
381,111.2
|
316,811.8
|
2,674.0
|
3,525.5
|
323,011.4
|
...
|
58,099.8
|
436,385.0
|
|
1995
|
358,728.9
|
5,830.7
|
-40.1
|
...
|
34,977.5
|
399,497.1
|
332,553.9
|
3,140.5
|
4,120.1
|
339,814.6
|
...
|
59,682.5
|
496,067.5
|
|
1996
|
378,572.0
|
6,843.9
|
309.4
|
7.4
|
38,718.3
|
424,451.1
|
347,050.0
|
2,962.3
|
3,556.3
|
353,568.5
|
...
|
70,882.5
|
566,950.0
|
|
1997
|
405,682.8
|
7,895.8
|
300.8
|
1.8
|
43,786.9
|
457,668.0
|
361,951.9
|
3,408.6
|
3,747.2
|
369,107.7
|
...
|
88,560.3
|
655,510.4
|
|
1998
|
429,891.6
|
9,707.4
|
282.0
|
.7
|
49,322.7
|
489,204.4
|
374,968.6
|
3,467.0
|
3,819.1
|
382,254.7
|
...
|
106,949.7
|
762,460.0
|
|
1999
|
459,291.6
|
11,559.3
|
263.9
|
.4
|
55,466.2
|
526,581.6
|
385,764.6
|
3,327.8
|
3,816.0
|
392,908.4
|
...
|
133,673.1
|
896,133.2
|
|
2000
|
492,475.4
|
12,314.2
|
-827.2
|
...
|
64,470.6
|
568,432.9
|
407,635.0
|
3,788.1
|
3,697.6
|
415,120.7
|
...
|
153,312.2
|
1,049,445.4
|
|
2001
|
516,384.1
|
12,714.8
|
9.0
|
...
|
72,895.3
|
602,003.3
|
431,932.8
|
3,702.3
|
3,282.8
|
438,915.6
|
...
|
163,087.7
|
1,212,533.1
|
|
2002
|
532,470.8
|
13,838.9
|
414.0
|
...
|
80,361.8
|
627,085.3
|
453,821.3
|
4,185.2
|
3,646.8
|
461,653.2
|
...
|
165,432.1
|
1,377,965.1
|
|
2003
|
533,518.9
|
13,441.2
|
...
|
...
|
84,925.7
|
631,885.8
|
470,777.7
|
4,561.5
|
3,747.3
|
479,086.5
|
...
|
152,799.3
|
1,530,764.5
|
|
2004
|
552,309.2
|
15,703.0
|
730.4
|
1.3
|
88,974.5
|
657,718.4
|
493,263.5
|
4,536.4
|
3,843.5
|
501,643.4
|
...
|
156,075.0
|
1,686,839.5
|
|
2005-I
|
147,388.1
|
3,937.1
|
...
|
...
|
122.4
|
151,447.5
|
128,293.5
|
1,445.3
|
...
|
129,738.8
|
...
|
21,708.8
|
1,708,548.4
|
|
2005-II
|
162,821.8
|
3,698.0
|
...
|
...
|
46,536.7
|
213,056.6
|
129,073.6
|
1,148.9
|
3,791.6
|
134,014.1
|
...
|
79,042.5
|
1,787,590.8
|
|
2005-III
|
139,597.9
|
3,709.8
|
...
|
...
|
157.7
|
143,466.4
|
129,514.7
|
1,402.2
|
...
|
130,916.9
|
...
|
12,549.5
|
1,800,140.3
|
|
2005-IV
|
131,225.4
|
3,741.8
|
...
|
.1
|
46,979.6
|
181,946.6
|
130,700.6
|
1,275.6
|
...
|
131,976.2
|
...
|
49,970.3
|
1,850,110.7
|
|
2006-I
|
159,455.3
|
4,056.5
|
...
|
...
|
393.9
|
163,906.5
|
133,422.1
|
1,502.7
|
...
|
134,924.8
|
...
|
28,981.7
|
1,879,092.4
|
|
2006-II
|
174,085.0
|
4,083.3
|
...
|
...
|
48,989.1
|
227,158.5
|
134,347.6
|
1,201.3
|
3,756.2
|
139,305.0
|
...
|
87,853.5
|
1,966,945.9
|
|
2006-III
|
146,781.8
|
4,100.1
|
...
|
...
|
324.5
|
151,206.8
|
134,961.5
|
1,462.5
|
...
|
136,424.0
|
...
|
14,782.7
|
1,981,728.6
|
|
2006-IV
|
138,230.3
|
4,140.6
|
...
|
...
|
51,141.0
|
193,511.7
|
136,306.5
|
1,248.1
|
...
|
137,554.5
|
...
|
55,957.2
|
2,037,685.7
|
|
2007-I
|
168,557.1
|
4,450.3
|
...
|
...
|
450.8
|
173,458.0
|
139,654.3
|
1,470.5
|
...
|
141,124.8
|
...
|
32,333.2
|
2,070,019.0
|
|
2007-II
|
180,878.5
|
4,483.1
|
...
|
...
|
53,774.0
|
239,133.9
|
140,707.8
|
1,174.1
|
4,011.7
|
145,893.6
|
...
|
93,240.4
|
2,163,259.3
|
|
2007-III
|
154,497.5
|
4,504.3
|
...
|
...
|
414.7
|
159,416.0
|
141,418.0
|
1,430.2
|
...
|
142,848.1
|
...
|
16,567.9
|
2,179,827.2
|
|
2007-IV
|
145,084.7
|
4,553.4
|
...
|
...
|
56,439.4
|
206,074.6
|
142,944.2
|
1,266.1
|
...
|
144,210.3
|
...
|
61,864.3
|
2,241,691.5
|
|
2008-I
|
176,695.5
|
5,239.4
|
...
|
...
|
480.3
|
182,415.8
|
147,253.8
|
1,488.8
|
...
|
148,742.7
|
...
|
33,673.1
|
2,275,364.7
|
|
2008-II
|
189,723.1
|
5,281.9
|
...
|
...
|
59,416.3
|
254,422.2
|
148,459.3
|
1,202.2
|
4,032.8
|
153,694.2
|
...
|
100,728.0
|
2,376,092.7
|
|
2008-III
|
161,676.2
|
5,310.5
|
...
|
...
|
462.5
|
167,450.0
|
149,296.1
|
1,457.1
|
...
|
150,753.4
|
...
|
16,696.7
|
2,392,789.4
|
|
2008-IV
|
153,428.6
|
5,374.6
|
...
|
...
|
62,516.0
|
221,319.3
|
151,059.5
|
1,294.7
|
...
|
152,354.3
|
...
|
68,965.0
|
2,461,754.4
|
|
2009-I
|
184,717.5
|
5,295.2
|
...
|
...
|
503.6
|
190,518.0
|
156,332.1
|
1,520.0
|
...
|
157,852.1
|
...
|
32,665.8
|
2,494,420.2
|
|
2009-II
|
198,252.8
|
5,344.7
|
...
|
...
|
65,648.5
|
269,246.2
|
157,770.7
|
1,238.3
|
4,086.0
|
163,095.1
|
...
|
106,151.2
|
2,600,571.4
|
|
2009-III
|
168,727.3
|
5,380.1
|
...
|
...
|
481.7
|
174,589.7
|
158,811.0
|
1,495.1
|
...
|
160,306.2
|
...
|
14,283.5
|
2,614,854.9
|
|
2009-IV
|
163,404.0
|
5,453.7
|
...
|
...
|
68,716.5
|
237,573.0
|
160,901.3
|
1,331.1
|
...
|
162,232.4
|
...
|
75,340.6
|
2,690,195.5
|
|
2010-I
|
191,344.9
|
5,870.3
|
...
|
...
|
524.2
|
197,739.4
|
165,748.8
|
1,560.8
|
...
|
167,309.6
|
...
|
30,429.8
|
2,720,625.3
|
|
2010-II
|
209,115.3
|
5,927.0
|
...
|
...
|
72,038.4
|
287,081.4
|
167,317.9
|
1,280.8
|
4,168.6
|
172,767.2
|
...
|
114,314.2
|
2,834,939.5
|
|
2010-III
|
179,365.6
|
5,969.8
|
...
|
...
|
504.2
|
185,839.9
|
168,506.7
|
1,541.5
|
...
|
170,048.2
|
...
|
15,791.6
|
2,850,731.2
|
|
2010-IV
|
170,111.1
|
6,058.5
|
...
|
...
|
75,679.8
|
251,849.3
|
170,914.9
|
1,373.8
|
...
|
172,288.7
|
...
|
79,560.6
|
2,930,291.8
|
|
2011-I
|
201,872.0
|
6,938.4
|
...
|
...
|
557.1
|
209,368.6
|
176,310.5
|
1,609.0
|
...
|
177,919.6
|
...
|
31,449.0
|
2,961,740.8
|
|
2011-II
|
219,778.0
|
7,008.7
|
...
|
...
|
79,232.2
|
306,019.0
|
178,051.9
|
1,328.7
|
4,116.8
|
183,497.4
|
...
|
122,521.6
|
3,084,262.3
|
|
2011-III
|
188,969.3
|
7,060.9
|
...
|
...
|
528.8
|
196,559.7
|
179,354.0
|
1,594.8
|
...
|
180,948.8
|
...
|
15,610.9
|
3,099,873.2
|
|
2011-IV
|
175,472.4
|
7,170.0
|
...
|
...
|
82,904.1
|
265,547.0
|
182,015.4
|
1,422.8
|
...
|
183,438.1
|
...
|
82,108.9
|
3,181,982.1
|
|
2012-I
|
213,792.8
|
7,750.0
|
...
|
...
|
579.1
|
222,123.3
|
188,302.6
|
1,664.7
|
...
|
189,967.2
|
...
|
32,156.1
|
3,214,138.2
|
|
2012-II
|
229,742.7
|
7,833.2
|
...
|
...
|
86,575.3
|
324,150.5
|
190,245.5
|
1,382.4
|
4,394.4
|
196,022.4
|
...
|
128,128.0
|
3,342,266.2
|
|
2012-III
|
195,626.4
|
7,896.2
|
...
|
...
|
555.4
|
204,078.7
|
191,727.7
|
1,655.2
|
...
|
193,382.9
|
...
|
10,695.8
|
3,352,962.1
|
|
2012-IV
|
183,459.0
|
8,025.3
|
...
|
...
|
90,300.8
|
281,785.4
|
194,712.5
|
1,473.8
|
...
|
196,186.4
|
...
|
85,599.0
|
3,438,561.1
|
|
2013-I
|
222,739.1
|
8,602.0
|
...
|
...
|
604.5
|
231,946.4
|
201,299.1
|
1,722.7
|
...
|
203,021.8
|
...
|
28,924.7
|
3,467,485.7
|
|
2013-II
|
240,788.5
|
8,694.9
|
...
|
...
|
93,998.1
|
343,481.0
|
203,381.7
|
1,438.1
|
4,527.4
|
209,347.1
|
...
|
134,133.8
|
3,601,619.6
|
|
2013-III
|
204,069.7
|
8,766.4
|
...
|
...
|
582.5
|
213,418.9
|
204,988.9
|
1,718.0
|
...
|
206,707.0
|
...
|
6,711.9
|
3,608,331.5
|
|
2013-IV
|
191,678.5
|
8,914.4
|
...
|
...
|
97,964.6
|
298,558.8
|
208,273.1
|
1,526.4
|
...
|
209,799.5
|
...
|
88,759.3
|
3,697,090.8
|
|
2014-I
|
232,947.1
|
9,261.8
|
...
|
...
|
630.6
|
242,840.6
|
215,354.0
|
1,782.5
|
...
|
217,136.6
|
...
|
25,704.0
|
3,722,794.8
|
|
2014-II
|
250,555.1
|
9,360.4
|
...
|
...
|
101,669.1
|
361,583.6
|
217,557.0
|
1,495.6
|
4,694.0
|
223,746.6
|
...
|
137,837.0
|
3,860,631.8
|
|
2014-III
|
212,708.4
|
9,437.3
|
...
|
...
|
609.2
|
222,754.5
|
219,275.4
|
1,782.8
|
...
|
221,058.2
|
...
|
1,696.3
|
3,862,328.2
|
|
2014-IV
|
201,503.5
|
9,599.1
|
...
|
...
|
105,571.0
|
316,673.9
|
222,846.5
|
1,581.0
|
...
|
224,427.6
|
...
|
92,246.4
|
3,954,574.5
|
| 1Income from taxation of benefits was not available until 1984. 2Paid from the general fund of the Treasury. Includes transfers representing contributions that would have been paid on deemed wage credits for military service performed—traditionally split into "pre-1957" and "post-1956"—if such credits were considered covered wages. In 1983, a change in the financing basis for pre-1957 service resulted in a one-time transfer for past credits—adjustments to the initial 1983 transfer were made in 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2002. Additional adjustments are expected in 2005 and quinquennially thereafter. 3Paid from the general fund of the Treasury. Includes costs of benefits to certain uninsured persons who attained age 72 before 1968. 4Net interest includes net profits or losses on marketable investments. Administrative expenses are charged currently to the trust fund on an estimated basis, with a final adjustment, including interest, made in the following fiscal year. The amounts of these interest adjustments are included in net interest. Calendar years 1982-86 reflect interest on interfund borrowing. Calendar years 1983-90 reflect interest on advance tax transfers. The amount shown for 1985 includes an interest adjustment of $102.8 million on unnegotiated checks issued before April 1985. 5Includes payments for vocational rehabilitation services furnished to disabled persons receiving benefits because of their disabilities. Beginning in 1983, relatively small reductions are made for the amount of reimbursement for unnegotiated benefit checks. 6Positive figure represents amounts lent to the OASI Trust Fund from the HI Trust Fund. Negative figures represent amounts repaid from the OASI Trust Fund to the HI Trust Fund. Transfers were not available until November 1982. |
Source: All figures computed by adding corresponding OASI and DI amounts.
Note: Future estimates based on 2004 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A11 and V.B11 for low cost and high cost alternatives, respectively.