Short-Range Actuarial Projections
of the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance Program, 2005

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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos
and Richard B. Tucker

V.B1.—Principal Economic Assumptions
(High cost alternative, calendar years 2005-14)
Calendar year
Annual percentage change in--
 
Productivity:
Total U.S. economy1
Earnings as a
percent of
compensation2
Average
hours worked3
GDP
price index4
Annual average
wage in covered
employment5
Consumer
Price Index6
Real-wage
differential7
2005
0.5
-0.5
-0.2
2.2
2.5
2.7
-0.2
2006
2.7
-0.1
-0.1
2.2
5.2
2.6
2.6
2007
1.7
-0.1
-0.1
2.5
4.6
2.8
1.8
2008
0.1
-0.2
-0.1
4.1
3.7
4.4
-0.7
2009
1.9
-0.1
-0.1
5.4
6.6
5.7
0.9
2010
2.0
-0.3
-0.1
5.3
7.3
5.6
1.7
2011
1.2
-0.3
-0.1
4.4
5.4
4.7
0.7
2012
1.2
-0.3
-0.1
3.6
4.6
3.9
0.7
2013
1.2
-0.2
-0.1
3.5
4.4
3.8
0.6
2014
1.3
-0.3
-0.1
3.5
4.3
3.8
0.5

1Total U.S. economy productivity is the ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to total hours worked by all workers.

2The ratio of total earnings to total compensation. Total earnings is the sum of wage and salary disbursements and proprietor's income. Total compensation is the sum of employee compensation and proprietor's income.

3Average hours worked per week is the ratio of total hours worked to total employment in the U.S. economy.

4The GDP price index measures the prices paid for goods and services produced by the U.S. economy.

5Total wages per worker in employment covered by the OASDI program.

6The Consumer Price Index is the average annual value for the calendar year of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

7The real-wage differential is the difference between nominal wage growth and inflation. This differential is calculated as the percent change in average annual covered wages minus the percent change in the average annual CPI-W. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

Source: Rates projected by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Revenue Estimates and Economic Analysis Group.

Note: Estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report high cost set of assumptions.

V.B2.—Additional Economic Factors
(High cost alternative, calendar years 2005-14)
Calendar year
 
Average annual percentage change in--
 
Average annual
unemployment rate1
(percent)
Labor force1
(percent)
Total employment2
Real GDP3
Average annual
interest rate4
(percent)
2005
6.4
1.2
0.3
0.6
3.7
2006
6.4
1.1
1.1
3.7
5.7
2007
6.0
1.1
1.4
3.0
5.8
2008
6.5
0.7
0.2
0.2
6.0
2009
7.2
0.4
-0.3
1.5
7.9
2010
6.6
0.9
1.6
3.5
8.7
2011
6.4
0.9
1.1
2.2
7.1
2012
6.5
0.6
0.5
1.6
6.2
2013
6.5
0.5
0.5
1.6
6.0
2014
6.5
0.5
0.5
1.6
6.0

1Civilian.

2Civilian employment plus U.S. Armed Forces.

3The real gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S., expressed in 2000 dollars.

4The average annual interest rate is the average of the 12 monthly nominal interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds. In practice, these rates are compounded semiannually.

Source: Rates projected by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Revenue Estimates and Economic Analysis Group.

Note: Estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report high cost set of assumptions.


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