Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
Total
fertility rate 1 |
Period life expectancy 3
|
Net immigration
|
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
At birth
|
At age 65
|
Legal
|
Other
|
|||||
|
Male
|
Female
|
Male
|
Female
|
|||||
|
2005
|
1.99
|
848.5
|
74.9
|
79.7
|
16.3
|
19.1
|
630,000
|
250,000
|
|
2006
|
1.98
|
838.6
|
75.1
|
79.8
|
16.4
|
19.1
|
560,000
|
250,000
|
|
2007
|
1.97
|
828.5
|
75.3
|
79.9
|
16.5
|
19.2
|
472,500
|
250,000
|
|
2008
|
1.96
|
818.1
|
75.5
|
80.1
|
16.6
|
19.3
|
472,500
|
250,000
|
|
2009
|
1.94
|
807.6
|
75.7
|
80.2
|
16.7
|
19.4
|
472,500
|
250,000
|
|
2010
|
1.93
|
796.9
|
75.9
|
80.4
|
16.8
|
19.5
|
472,500
|
250,000
|
|
2011
|
1.92
|
786.2
|
76.1
|
80.5
|
16.9
|
19.5
|
472,500
|
250,000
|
|
2012
|
1.91
|
775.4
|
76.3
|
80.7
|
17.1
|
19.6
|
472,500
|
250,000
|
|
2013
|
1.89
|
764.7
|
76.5
|
80.8
|
17.2
|
19.7
|
472,500
|
250,000
|
|
2014
|
1.88
|
754.1
|
76.6
|
81.0
|
17.3
|
19.8
|
472,500
|
250,000
|
| 1The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2029. 2The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year. 3The period life expectancy for any year is the average number of years of life remaining for a group of persons if that group were to experience the death rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year. |
Source: Estimates prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Demographic Analysis Group.
Note: Estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report high cost set of assumptions.
|
Year
|
Insured status
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Coverage rate 1
(percent) |
Fully 2
(percent) |
Disability 3
(percent) |
|||
|
2005
|
65.40
|
82.48
|
72.55
|
5.94
|
70.53
|
|
2006
|
65.46
|
82.98
|
72.61
|
5.96
|
70.58
|
|
2007
|
65.58
|
83.48
|
72.70
|
6.08
|
71.25
|
|
2008
|
65.24
|
84.01
|
72.84
|
6.18
|
73.44
|
|
2009
|
64.72
|
84.56
|
72.98
|
6.36
|
81.32
|
|
2010
|
65.07
|
85.09
|
73.09
|
6.21
|
81.19
|
|
2011
|
65.16
|
85.58
|
73.19
|
5.98
|
79.14
|
|
2012
|
64.95
|
86.09
|
73.32
|
5.92
|
84.22
|
|
2013
|
64.75
|
86.58
|
73.46
|
5.90
|
87.82
|
|
2014
|
64.57
|
87.03
|
73.58
|
5.88
|
87.43
|
| 1The coverage rate is the number of persons with any covered employment during the year as a percentage of the total population aged 15 or older at the end of the year. 2The fully insured rate is the number of fully insured persons aged 62 or older expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 62 or older, as of December 31. 3The disability insured rate is the number of disability insured persons expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 15 to normal retirement age, as of December 31. 4The disability incidence rate is the number of awards to disabled worker beneficiaries per thousand insured persons (not receiving benefits) under normal retirement age and is age-sex-adjusted based on the insured population as of January 1, 2000. 5The disability termination rate is the number of disabled worker terminations (due to all reasons including death, recovery, and attainment of normal retirement age) per thousand disabled worker beneficiaries. |
Sources:
Note: Estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report high cost set of assumptions.