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2015 OASDI Trustees Report
Office of the Chief Actuary
Actuarial Publications
2015 Trustees Report
Contents
Tables
Figures
LIST OF TABLES
II. OVERVIEW
II.B1 Summary of 2014 Trust Fund Financial Operations
II.B2 Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for 2014
II.C1 Long-Range Values of Key Assumptions for the 75-year Projection Period
II.D1 Projected Maximum Trust Fund Ratios During the Long-Range Period and Trust Fund Reserve Depletion Dates
II.D2 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance,Based on Intermediate Assumptions
III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR
III.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2014
III.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2014
III.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Calendar Year 2014
III.A4 Comparison of Actual Calendar Year 2014 Trust Fund Operations With Estimates Made in Prior Reports, Based on Intermediate Assumptions
III.A5 Distribution of Benefit Payments by Type of Beneficiary or Payment, Calendar Years 2013 and 2014
III.A6 Administrative Expenses as a Percentage of Non-interest Income and of Total Expenditures, Calendar Years 2010-14
III.A7 Trust Fund Investment Transactions, Calendar Year 2014
IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
IV.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2010-24
IV.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2010-24
IV.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,Calendar Years 2010-24
IV.A4 Reasons for Change in Trust Fund (Unfunded Obligation) Ratios at the Beginning of the Tenth Year of Projection Under Intermediate Assumptions
IV.B1 Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances,Calendar Years 1990-2090
IV.B2 Components of Annual Income Rates, Calendar Years 1990-2090
IV.B3 Covered Workers and Beneficiaries, Calendar Years 1945-2090
IV.B4 Trust Fund Ratios, Calendar Years 2015-90
IV.B5 Components of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates, Calendar Years 2015-89
IV.B6 Components of 75-Year Actuarial BalanceUnder Intermediate Assumptions
IV.B7 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance,Based on Intermediate Assumptions
V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYINGACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
V.A1 Principal Demographic Assumptions, Calendar Years 1940-2090
V.A2 Social Security Area Population on July 1 and Dependency Ratios, Calendar Years 1945-2090
V.A3 Period Life Expectancy
V.A4 Cohort Life Expectancy
V.B1 Principal Economic Assumptions
V.B2 Additional Economic Factors
V.C1 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index, Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts, 1975-2024
V.C2 Values for Selected Wage-Indexed Program Parameters, Calendar Years 1978-2024
V.C3 Legislated Changes in Normal Retirement Age and Delayed Retirement Credits for Persons Reaching Age 62 in Each Year 1986 and Later
V.C4 OASI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status Varying at the End of Calendar Years 1945-2090
V.C5 DI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Statusat the End of Calendar Years 1960-2090
V.C6 Contribution and Benefit Base and Payroll Tax Contribution Rates
V.C7 Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts for Retired Workers With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns Based on Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2015-90
VI. APPENDICES
A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS
VI.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1937-2014
VI.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1957-2014
VI.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,Calendar Years 1957-2014
VI.A4 OASI Trust Fund Asset Reserves, End of Calendar Years 2013 and 2014
VI.A5 DI Trust Fund Asset Reserves, End of Calendar Years 2013 and 2014
B. HISTORY OF
ACTUARIAL STATUS
ESTIMATES
VI.B1 Long-Range OASDI Actuarial Balances and Trust Fund Reserve Depletion Dates as Shown in the Trustees Reports for 1982-2015
C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED TRUST FUND OPERATIONS THROUGH 2024
VI.C1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2014
VI.C2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2014
VI.C3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Fiscal Year 2014
VI.C4 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 2010-24
VI.C5 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 2010-24
VI.C6 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,Fiscal Years 2010-24
D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
VI.D1 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying Fertility Assumptions
VI.D2 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying Death-Rate Assumptions
VI.D3 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying Net-Immigration Assumptions
VI.D4 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying Real-Wage Assumptions
VI.D5 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying CPI-Increase Assumptions
VI.D6 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying Real-Interest Assumptions
VI.D7 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying Disability Incidence Assumptions
VI.D8 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying Disability Termination Assumptions
E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY
VI.E1 Long-Range Estimates Relating to the Actuarial Status ofthe Combined OASDI Program
F. INFINITE HORIZON PROJECTIONS
VI.F1 Unfunded OASDI Obligations Through the Infinite Horizon,Based on Intermediate Assumptions
VI.F2 Present Values of OASDI Cost Less Non-interest Income and Unfunded Obligations for Program Participants, Based on Intermediate Assumptions
G. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED
VI.G1 Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for the OASDI and HI Programs
VI.G2 OASDI and HI Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances, Calendar Years 2015-90
VI.G3 Summarized OASDI and HI Income Rates and Cost Rates for Valuation Periods, Calendar Years 2015-89
VI.G4 OASDI and HI Annual and Summarized Income, Cost, and Balance as a Percentage of GDP, Calendar Years 2015-90
VI.G5 Ratio of OASDI Taxable Payroll to GDP, Calendar Years 2015-90
VI.G6 Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2014-90
VI.G7 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in CPI-indexed 2015 Dollars, Calendar Years 2015-90
VI.G8 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2015-90
VI.G9 OASDI and HI Annual Non-interest Income, Cost, and Balance in CPI-Indexed Dollars, Calendar Years 2015-90
VI.G10 OASDI and HI Annual Non-interest Income, Cost, and Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2015-90
H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES
VI.H1 Scheduled Benefit Disbursements From the OASI Trust FundWith Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries
VI.H2 Scheduled Benefit Disbursements Under the OASDI ProgramWith Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries