The 2021 OASDI Trustees Report

LIST OF TABLES

II. OVERVIEW

II.B1 Summary of 2020 Trust Fund Financial Operations

II.B2 Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for 2020

II.C1 Key Assumptions and Summary Measures for the Long-Range (75-year) Projection Period

II.D1 Projected Maximum Trust Fund Ratios During the Long-Range Period and Trust Fund Reserve Depletion Dates

II.D2 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR

III.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2020

III.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2020

III.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Calendar Year 2020

III.A4 Comparison of Actual Calendar Year 2020 Trust Fund Operations With Estimates Made in Prior Reports, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

III.A5 Distribution of Benefit Payments by Type of Beneficiary or Payment, Calendar Years 2019 and 2020

III.A6 Administrative Expenses as a Percentage of Total Income and of Total Cost, Calendar Years 2016-2020

III.A7 Trust Fund Investment Transactions, Calendar Year 2020

IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

IV.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2016-2030

IV.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2016-2030

IV.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,Calendar Years 2016-2030

IV.A4 Reasons for Change in Trust Fund (Unfunded Obligation) Ratios at the Beginning of the Tenth Year of Projection Under Intermediate Assumptions

IV.B1 Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances, Calendar Years 1990-2095

IV.B2 Components of Annual Income Rates, Calendar Years 1990-2095

IV.B3 Covered Workers and Beneficiaries, Calendar Years 1945-2095

IV.B4 Trust Fund Ratios, Calendar Years 2021-2095

IV.B5 Components of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates, Calendar Years 2021-2095

IV.B6 Components of 75-Year Actuarial Balance and Unfunded Obligation Under Intermediate Assumptions

IV.B7 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

V.A1 Fertility and Mortality Assumptions, Calendar Years 1940-2095

V.A2 Immigration Assumptions, Calendar Years 1940-2095

V.A3 Social Security Area Population on July 1 and Dependency Ratios, Calendar Years 1945-2095

V.A4 Period Life Expectancy

V.A5 Cohort Life Expectancy

V.B1 Principal Economic Assumptions

V.B2 Additional Economic Factors

V.C1 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index, Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts, 1975-2030

V.C2 Values for Selected Wage-Indexed Program Parameters, Calendar Years 1978-2030

V.C3 Legislated Changes in Normal Retirement Age and Delayed Retirement Credits for Persons Attaining Age 62 in Each Year 1986 and Later

V.C4 OASI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status at the End of Calendar Years 1945-2095

V.C5 DI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status at the End of Calendar Years 1960-2095

V.C6 Contribution and Benefit Base and Payroll Tax Contribution Rates

V.C7 Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts for Retired Workers With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns Based on Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2021-2095

VI. APPENDICES

A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS

VI.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1937-2020

VI.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1957-2020

VI.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Calendar Years 1957-2020

VI.A4 OASI Trust Fund Asset Reserves, End of Calendar Years 2019 and 2020

VI.A5 DI Trust Fund Asset Reserves, End of Calendar Years 2019 and 2020

B. HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL STATUS ESTIMATES

VI.B1 Long-Range OASDI Actuarial Balances and Trust Fund Reserve Depletion Dates as Shown in the Trustees Reports for 1982-2021 under Intermediate Assumptions

C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED TRUST FUND OPERATIONS THROUGH 2030

VI.C1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2020

VI.C2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2020

VI.C3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, Fiscal Year 2020

VI.C4 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 2016-2030

VI.C5 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 2016-2030

VI.C6 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,Fiscal Years 2016-2030

D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

VI.D1 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Fertility Assumptions

VI.D2 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Death-Rate Assumptions

VI.D3 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Total Net Immigration Assumptions

VI.D4 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Real Wage Assumptions

VI.D5 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to CPI-Increase Assumptions

VI.D6 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Real Interest Rate Assumptions

VI.D7 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Taxable Ratio Assumptions

VI.D8 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Disability Incidence Assumptions

VI.D9 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Disability Termination Assumptions

E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY

VI.E1 Long-Range Estimates Relating to the Actuarial Status ofthe Combined OASDI Program

F. INFINITE HORIZON PROJECTION

VI.F1 Unfunded OASDI Obligations Through the Infinite Horizon and the 75-Year Projection Period, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

VI.F2 Present Values Through the Infinite Horizon for Various Categories of Program Participants, Based on Intermediate Assumptions

G. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

VI.G1 Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for the OASDI and HI Programs

VI.G2 OASDI and HI Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances, Calendar Years 2021-2095

VI.G3 Summarized OASDI and HI Income Rates and Cost Rates for Valuation Periods, Calendar Years 2021-2095

VI.G4 OASDI and HI Annual and Summarized Income, Cost, and Balance as a Percentage of GDP, Calendar Years 2021-2095

VI.G5 Ratio of OASDI Taxable Payroll to GDP, Calendar Years 2021-2095

VI.G6 Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2020-2095

VI.G7 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in CPI-indexed 2021 Dollars, Calendar Years 2021-2095

VI.G8 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2021-2095

VI.G9 OASDI and HI Annual Non-interest Income, Cost, and Balance in CPI-Indexed 2021 Dollars, Calendar Years 2021-2095

VI.G10 OASDI and HI Annual Non-interest Income, Cost, and Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2021-2095

H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT PAYMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

VI.H1 Scheduled Benefit Payments From the OASI Trust Fund With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries

VI.H2 Scheduled Benefit Payments Under the OASDI Program With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries