The Trustees set key demographic, economic, and programmatic assumptions for three alternative scenarios. The intermediate assumptions reflect the Trustees’ best estimates of future experience. Therefore, most of the results presented in this overview indicate outcomes under the intermediate assumptions only. Any projection of the future is, of course, uncertain. For this reason, results are also presented under low-cost and high-cost alternatives to provide a range of possible future experience. The actual future costs are unlikely to be as extreme as those portrayed by the low-cost or high-cost projections. A separate section on the uncertainty of the projections, beginning on page 19, highlights the implications of these alternative scenarios.For each of the three alternative scenarios, Table II.C1 presents key demographic, economic, and programmatic assumptions used for projections beyond the tenth projection year.
Table II.C1.—Key Assumptionsa and Summary Measures
for the Last 65 Years of the Long-Range (75-Year) Projection Period Average annual total fertility rate (children per woman)b Average wage in covered employment (nominal) Consumer Price Index (CPI-W)
See chapter V for details, including historical and projected values.
The ultimate total fertility rate is 2.00 for the intermediate assumptions, 2.20 for the low-cost assumptions, and 1.70 for the high-cost assumptions. The ultimate rate is reached on a cohort basis over the lifetime of girls attaining age 14 in 2021 and later, so that the ultimate rate on an annual (or period) basis is reached in 2056. See section V.A.1 for additional details.
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