The 2023 OASDI Trustees Report

Table of Contents

I. INTRODUCTION
II. OVERVIEW
  A. HIGHLIGHTS
  B. TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 2022
  C. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE
  D. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS
  E. CONCLUSION
III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR
  A. OPERATIONS OF THE OLD‑AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) TRUST FUNDS, IN CALENDAR YEAR 2022
    1. OASI Trust Fund
    2. DI Trust Fund
    3. OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined
  B. CHANGES IN LAW AND POLICY AFFECTING SOCIAL SECURITY SINCE THE 2022 REPORT
IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
  A. SHORT-RANGE ESTIMATES
    1. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund
    2. Operations of the DI Trust Fund
    3. Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds
    4. Factors Underlying Changes in 10-Year Trust Fund Ratio Estimates From Last Year’s Report
  B. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES
    1. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances
    2. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries
    3. Trust Fund Ratios and Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance
    4. Summarized Income Rates, Summarized Cost Rates, and Actuarial Balances
    5. Open-Group Unfunded Obligation
    6. Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report
V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
  A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
    1. Fertility Assumptions
    2. Mortality Assumptions
    3. Immigration Assumptions
    4. Total Population Estimates
    5. Life Expectancy Estimates
  B. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
    1. Productivity Assumptions
    2. Price Inflation Assumptions
    3. Average Earnings Assumptions
    4. Assumed Real Wage Growth
    5. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment Projections
    6. Gross Domestic Product Projections
    7. Interest Rates
  C. PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
    1. Automatically Adjusted Program Parameters
    2. Covered Employment
    3. Insured Population
    4. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries
    5. Disability Insurance Beneficiaries
    6. Covered and Taxable Earnings, Taxable Payroll, and Payroll Tax Contributions
    7. Income From Taxation of Benefits
    8. Average Benefits
    9. Scheduled Benefits
    10. Illustrative Scheduled Benefit Amounts
    11. Administrative Expenses
    12. Railroad Retirement Financial Interchange
VI. APPENDICES
  A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS
  B. HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL STATUS ESTIMATES
  C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED TRUST FUND OPERATIONS THROUGH 2032
  D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
    1. Total Fertility Rate
    2. Death Rates
    3. Immigration
    4. Real Wage Growth
    5. Consumer Price Index
    6. Real Interest Rate
    7. Taxable Ratio
    8. Disability Incidence Rates
    9. Disability Termination Rates
  E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY
    1. Background
    2. Stochastic Methodology
    3. Stochastic Results
    4. Comparison of Results: Stochastic to Low-Cost, Intermediate, and High-Cost Alternative Scenarios
  F. INFINITE HORIZON PROJECTIONS
  G. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED
    1. Estimates as a Percentage of Taxable Payroll
    2. Estimates as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product
    3. Estimates in Dollars
  H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT PAYMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES
  I. GLOSSARY
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
INDEX
STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION