2022 OASDI Trustees Report

 

The following table presents the plot points for Figure V.C5 — Comparison of DI Disabled-Worker Incidence Rates, Termination Rates and Conversion Ratios Under Intermediate Assumptions.

 

Historical values

Calendar year	Incidence rates			Termination rates			Conversion ratios
	Gross rates	Age-sex-adjusted rates		Gross rates	Age-sex-adjusted rates		Gross ratios	Age-sex-adjusted ratios
1970	4.82	4.38		92.51	90.17		71.26	40.58
1971	5.56	5.10		88.42	86.19		68.37	40.58
1972	5.96	5.50		80.53	78.50		66.87	40.58
1973	6.31	5.90		83.41	81.30		68.06	40.58
1974	6.67	6.43		74.86	72.97		66.80	40.58
1975	7.13	7.04		73.47	71.62		64.10	40.58
1976	6.52	6.49		72.58	70.91		64.23	40.58
1977	6.60	6.64		74.53	74.36		66.22	40.58
1978	5.50	5.80		81.78	86.03		66.20	40.58
1979	4.73	5.11		81.23	86.03		70.07	40.58
1980	4.36	4.80		77.31	81.14		68.05	40.58
1981	3.86	4.18		87.94	95.91		67.65	40.58
1982	3.35	3.70		105.59	120.95		70.30	40.58
1983	4.21	4.71		97.69	110.58		71.43	40.58
1984	3.98	4.34		72.13	72.75		69.29	40.58
1985	3.96	4.34		59.94	57.48		69.38	40.58
1986	3.96	4.30		57.95	54.74		67.71	40.58
1987	3.84	4.21		63.08	60.51		62.64	40.58
1988	3.72	4.11		64.36	62.51		60.27	40.58
1989	3.79	4.21		59.19	56.37		60.58	40.58
1990	4.08	4.53		57.34	55.32		57.53	40.58
1991	4.62	5.09		55.77	54.04		54.07	40.58
1992	5.43	5.90		54.58	52.89		51.43	40.58
1993	5.35	5.75		53.17	51.79		47.47	40.58
1994	5.24	5.60		52.78	51.52		44.10	40.58
1995	5.29	5.61		53.15	51.82		43.71	40.58
1996	5.04	5.30		50.12	49.18		41.70	40.58
1997	4.67	4.87		57.82	56.67		41.65	40.58
1998	4.76	4.89		45.51	45.30		39.97	40.58
1999	4.78	4.84		46.32	46.19		41.06	40.58
2000	4.71	4.71		48.04	48.04		40.58	40.58
2001	5.15	5.08		45.04	45.17		39.67	40.58
2002	5.54	5.36		45.26	45.50		39.47	40.58
2003	5.70	5.39		42.44	42.49		33.34	33.82
2004	5.80	5.37		41.61	41.53		32.14	33.82
2005	5.99	5.47		42.97	42.90		31.79	33.82
2006	5.75	5.19		40.02	40.14		32.72	33.82
2007	5.80	5.16		38.17	38.08		33.67	33.82
2008	6.26	5.51		38.40	38.18		35.71	33.82
2009	6.94	6.04		36.90	36.58		42.99	40.58
2010	7.42	6.37		36.92	36.82		40.68	40.58
2011	7.24	6.07		35.94	35.82		39.09	40.58
2012	6.99	5.80		36.34	36.24		44.94	40.58
2013	6.30	5.15		34.50	34.27		49.61	40.58
2014	5.74	4.65		36.54	36.99		49.09	40.58
2015	5.45	4.40		38.01	39.08		50.37	40.58
2016	5.19	4.18		39.06	40.80		51.31	40.58
2017	5.27	4.29		41.14	43.63		54.38	40.58
2018	5.04	4.09		42.10	45.41		56.96	40.58
2019	4.92	3.99		40.78	43.66		59.65	40.58
2020	4.38	3.52		41.30	42.28		63.45	40.58
2021	3.83	3.04		45.72	47.78		54.22	33.82

 

Projected values

Calendar year	Incidence rates			Termination rates			Conversion ratios
	Gross rates	Age-sex-adjusted rates		Gross rates	Age-sex-adjusted rates		Gross ratios	Age-sex-adjusted ratios
2022	3.97	3.18		44.19	47.89		56.81	33.82
2023	4.63	3.70		37.66	38.88		58.65	33.82
2024	5.10	4.08		37.15	38.23		58.85	33.82
2025	5.63	4.51		36.98	37.86		58.24	33.82
2026	5.98	4.82		36.59	37.31		58.50	33.82
2027	6.21	5.07		36.16	36.74		70.56	40.58
2028	6.04	5.00		35.73	36.18		70.92	40.58
2029	5.84	4.91		35.25	35.59		71.08	40.58
2030	5.62	4.77		34.61	34.88		71.21	40.58
2031	5.62	4.78		34.04	34.23		71.20	40.58
2032	5.61	4.77		33.81	34.08		67.17	40.58
2033	5.61	4.77		33.53	33.85		63.50	40.58
2034	5.61	4.77		33.24	33.61		61.36	40.58
2035	5.61	4.78		32.92	33.34		60.76	40.58
2036	5.62	4.78		32.61	33.10		61.53	40.58
2037	5.64	4.79		32.30	32.86		64.13	40.58
2038	5.68	4.79		32.01	32.63		61.13	40.58
2039	5.72	4.80		31.71	32.42		57.37	40.58
2040	5.76	4.80		31.44	32.22		54.37	40.58
2041	5.81	4.81		31.16	32.03		54.33	40.58
2042	5.86	4.81		30.89	31.78		53.92	40.58
2043	5.90	4.82		30.61	31.53		53.70	40.58
2044	5.93	4.82		30.32	31.27		54.95	40.58
2045	5.96	4.83		30.04	31.02		54.79	40.58
2046	5.98	4.83		29.78	30.79		56.32	40.58
2047	6.00	4.83		29.51	30.56		58.35	40.58
2048	6.01	4.82		29.26	30.33		57.47	40.58
2049	6.02	4.83		29.00	30.10		58.57	40.58
2050	6.04	4.82		28.77	29.90		57.35	40.58
2051	6.04	4.82		28.54	29.68		57.66	40.58
2052	6.04	4.82		28.31	29.48		58.63	40.58
2053	6.04	4.82		28.09	29.28		58.51	40.58
2054	6.03	4.82		27.88	29.08		59.03	40.58
2055	6.02	4.82		27.66	28.89		60.46	40.58
2056	6.00	4.82		27.46	28.71		62.11	40.58
2057	5.99	4.82		27.25	28.52		64.36	40.58
2058	5.97	4.82		27.04	28.34		64.29	40.58
2059	5.96	4.82		26.85	28.16		64.25	40.58
2060	5.95	4.82		26.66	27.99		63.54	40.58
2061	5.94	4.82		26.46	27.81		63.08	40.58
2062	5.93	4.82		26.27	27.63		62.79	40.58
2063	5.92	4.82		26.09	27.47		62.60	40.58
2064	5.91	4.82		25.92	27.30		62.24	40.58
2065	5.90	4.82		25.74	27.15		63.05	40.58
2066	5.89	4.82		25.57	26.98		63.06	40.58
2067	5.88	4.82		25.41	26.82		63.95	40.58
2068	5.87	4.82		25.25	26.66		62.81	40.58
2069	5.86	4.82		25.09	26.51		62.79	40.58
2070	5.84	4.82		24.93	26.36		63.59	40.58
2071	5.82	4.82		24.77	26.20		64.13	40.58
2072	5.80	4.82		24.61	26.05		65.10	40.58
2073	5.77	4.82		24.46	25.90		66.91	40.58
2074	5.75	4.82		24.31	25.75		68.21	40.58
2075	5.73	4.82		24.17	25.61		68.41	40.58
2076	5.71	4.82		24.02	25.47		66.68	40.58
2077	5.70	4.82		23.88	25.33		65.85	40.58
2078	5.69	4.82		23.73	25.18		64.53	40.58
2079	5.68	4.82		23.58	25.04		64.43	40.58
2080	5.67	4.82		23.42	24.91		64.09	40.58
2081	5.67	4.82		23.27	24.77		64.74	40.58
2082	5.67	4.82		23.12	24.63		64.54	40.58
2083	5.67	4.82		22.97	24.50		63.99	40.58
2084	5.68	4.82		22.83	24.37		62.63	40.58
2085	5.70	4.82		22.69	24.24		61.40	40.58
2086	5.72	4.82		22.54	24.10		60.23	40.58
2087	5.73	4.82		22.39	23.98		58.01	40.58
2088	5.75	4.82		22.24	23.85		58.14	40.58
2089	5.77	4.82		22.09	23.73		58.17	40.58
2090	5.78	4.82		21.95	23.61		58.43	40.58
2091	5.79	4.82		21.81	23.49		58.84	40.58
2092	5.80	4.82		21.67	23.37		59.34	40.58
2093	5.81	4.82		21.53	23.25		59.89	40.58
2094	5.82	4.82		21.40	23.13		60.51	40.58
2095	5.82	4.82		21.26	23.02		61.19	40.58
2096	5.82	4.82		21.13	22.90		61.87	40.58
2097	5.82	4.82		21.01	22.79		62.56	40.58
2098	5.82	4.82		20.89	22.68		62.89	40.58
2099	5.82	4.82		20.77	22.57		63.14	40.58
2100	5.82	4.82		20.65	22.45		63.45	40.58

 

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