Table of Contents

I. INTRODUCTION
II. OVERVIEW
A. HIGHLIGHTS
B. TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 2016
C. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE
D. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS
E. CONCLUSION
III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND
LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR
A. OPERATIONS OF THE OLD‑AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) TRUST FUNDS, IN CALENDAR YEAR 2016
1. OASI Trust Fund
2. DI Trust Fund
3. OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined
B. SOCIAL SECURITY AMENDMENTS SINCE THE
2016 REPORT
IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
A. SHORT-RANGE ESTIMATES
1. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund
2. Operations of the DI Trust Fund
3. Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds
4. Factors Underlying Changes in 10-Year Trust Fund Ratio
Estimates From the 2016 Report
B. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES
1. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances
2. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries
3. Trust Fund Ratios and Test of Long-Range
Close Actuarial Balance
4. Summarized Income Rates, Summarized Cost Rates,
and Actuarial Balances
5. Open Group Unfunded Obligation
6. Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report
V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
1. Fertility Assumptions
2. Mortality Assumptions
3. Immigration Assumptions
4. Total Population Estimates
5. Life Expectancy Estimates
B. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
1. Productivity Assumptions
2. Price Inflation Assumptions
3. Average Earnings Assumptions
4. Assumed Real-Wage Differential
5. Labor Force and Unemployment Projections
6. Gross Domestic Product Projections
7. Interest Rates
C. PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS
1. Automatically Adjusted Program Parameters
2. Covered Employment
3. Insured Population
4. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries
5. Disability Insurance Beneficiaries
6. Covered and Taxable Earnings, Taxable Payroll, and
Payroll Tax Contributions
7. Income From Taxation of Benefits
8. Average Benefits
9. Scheduled Benefits
10. Illustrative Scheduled Benefit Amounts
11. Administrative Expenses
12. Railroad Retirement Financial Interchange
VI. APPENDICES
A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS
B. HISTORY OFACTUARIAL STATUS ESTIMATES
C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED
TRUST FUND OPERATIONS THROUGH 2026
D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
1. Total Fertility Rate
2. Death Rates
3. Immigration
4. Real-Wage Differential
5. Consumer Price Index
6. Real Interest Rate
7. Taxable Ratio
8. Disability Incidence Rates
9. Disability Termination Rates
E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY
1. Background
2. Stochastic Methodology
3. Stochastic Results
4. Comparison of Results: Stochastic to Low-Cost,
Intermediate, and High-Cost Alternatives
F. INFINITE HORIZON PROJECTIONS
G. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED
1. Estimates as a Percentage of Taxable Payroll
2. Estimates as a Percentage ofGross Domestic Product
3. Estimates in Dollars
H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE
OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES
I. GLOSSARY
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
INDEX
STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION