2004 OASDI Trustees Report

CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION

II. OVERVIEW

A. HIGHLIGHTS

B. TRUST FUND FINANCIAL OPERATIONS IN 2003

C. ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE

D. PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE FINANCIAL STATUS

E. CONCLUSION

III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR

A. OPERATIONS OF THE OLD-AGE AND SURVIVORS INSURANCE (OASI) AND DISABILITY INSURANCE (DI) TRUST FUNDS, IN CALENDAR YEAR 2003

1. OASI Trust Fund

2. DI Trust Fund

3. OASI and DI Trust Funds, Combined

B. SOCIAL SECURITY AMENDMENTS SINCE THE 2003 REPORT

IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

A. SHORT-RANGE ESTIMATES

1. Operations of the OASI Trust Fund

2. Operations of the DI Trust Fund

3. Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds

4. Factors Underlying Changes in 10-Year Trust Fund Ratio Estimates From the 2003 Report

B. LONG-RANGE ESTIMATES

1. Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

2. Comparison of Workers to Beneficiaries

3. Trust Fund Ratios

4. Summarized Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances

5. Additional Measures of OASDI Unfunded Obligations

6. Test of Long-Range Close Actuarial Balance

7. Income and Cost Rates by Component

8. Reasons for Change in Actuarial Balance From Last Report

V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES

A. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

1. Fertility Assumptions

2. Mortality Assumptions

3. Immigration Assumptions

4. Total Population Estimates

5. Life Expectancy Estimates

B. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

1. Productivity Assumptions

2. Price Inflation Assumptions

3. Average Earnings Assumptions

4. Assumed Real-Wage Differentials

5. Labor Force and Unemployment Projections

6. Gross Domestic Product Projections

7. Interest Rate Projections

C. PROGRAM-SPECIFIC ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS

1. Automatically Adjusted Program Amounts

2. Covered Employment

3. Taxable Payroll and Payroll Tax Revenue

4. Insured Population

5. Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Beneficiaries

6. Disability Insurance Beneficiaries

7. Average Benefits

8. Benefit Payments

9. Administrative Expenses

10. Railroad Retirement Financial Interchange

11. Benefits to Uninsured Persons

12. Military-Service Transfers

13. Income From Taxation of Benefits

VI. APPENDICES

A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS

B. HISTORY OF ACTUARIAL BALANCE ESTIMATES

C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL DATA AND PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2013

D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

1. Total Fertility Rate

2. Death Rates

3. Net Immigration

4. Real-Wage Differential

5. Consumer Price Index

6. Real Interest Rate

7. Disability Incidence Rates

8. Disability Termination Rates

E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS

1. Background

2. Methodology

3. Results

F. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

1. Estimates as a Percentage of Taxable Payroll

2. Estimates as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

3. Estimates in Dollars

G. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES

H. GLOSSARY

STATEMENT OF ACTUARIAL OPINION

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