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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Cover All Newly Hired State and Local Workers

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Sex
Female 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Male 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 13% 0% 0% 2%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Country of birth
United States 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Other countries 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Age
60–69 0% 16% 0% 0% 2%
70–79 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
80–89 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Divorced 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Widowed 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 16% 0% 0% 2%
Bachelor 0% 13% 0% 0% 2%
Associate 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
In poverty 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Second highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Middle 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 1% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Disabled worker only 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
70–79 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Bachelor 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Lowest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,958 0 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,507 0 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 672 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,943 0 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 577 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,486 0 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 979 0 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,655 0 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,346 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 646 0 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,175 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 813 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 832 832 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 694 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,593 0 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 765 0 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,465 3,465 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,355 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 664 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 189 0 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 3,753 -29 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,074 -25 -1%
Male 4% 4% 1,683 1,679 -3 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,047 -10 0%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,729 -12 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 657 652 -4 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 324 -1 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,492 -18 0%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,261 -10 0%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,377 -25 -1%
70–79 4% 4% 1,337 1,335 -1 0%
80–89 4% 4% 873 871 -1 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 708 -3 0%
Divorced 7% 7% 1,070 1,056 -13 -1%
Widowed 5% 5% 817 816 -1 0%
Never married 12% 12% 1,183 1,174 -9 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 169 161 -8 -4%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 342 -1 0%
Associate 3% 3% 630 625 -5 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,694 1,685 -9 0%
Less than high school 12% 12% 944 940 -4 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 99% 3,782 3,753 -29 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 2,824 -14 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 504 -4 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 218 218 0 0%
Disabled worker only 7% 6% 216 206 -9 -4%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 2,736 -85 -3%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,527 1,475 -51 -3%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,261 -34 -2%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 4% 963 933 -29 -3%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 1,083 -41 -3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 418 -7 -1%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 309 301 -7 -2%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,770 1,720 -49 -2%
Other countries 5% 5% 1,052 1,016 -36 -3%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 909 -35 -3%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,034 -22 -2%
80–89 3% 3% 628 601 -27 -4%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 192 0 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 457 -13 -2%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 653 -33 -4%
Widowed 3% 3% 486 478 -7 -1%
Never married 7% 7% 1,179 1,148 -31 -2%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 144 -12 -8%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 201 -15 -7%
Associate 2% 2% 460 444 -15 -3%
High school 4% 4% 1,229 1,206 -23 -1%
Less than high school 8% 8% 761 741 -20 -2%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 0 0 . . .
In poverty 100% 97% 2,822 2,736 -85 -3%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 2,197 2,130 -67 -3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 2% 314 304 -9 -3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 156 149 -6 -4%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 153 -2 -1%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 144% 449%
Sex
Female 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 182% 644%
Male 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 119% 266%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 161% 569%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 140% 406%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 149% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 145% 508%
Country of birth
United States 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 141% 415%
Other countries 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 164% 599%
Highest education level
Graduate 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 23% 125% 262%
Bachelor 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 22% 136% 361%
Associate 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 146% 393%
High school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 153% 519%
Less than high school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 161% 808%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 39% 108% 157%
Second highest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 134% 201%
Middle 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 160% 270%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 23% 228% 503%
Lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 254% 1,560%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 47% 108% 152%
Second highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 136% 201%
Middle 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 161% 267%
Second lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 218% 452%
Lowest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 306% 1,581%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 56% 115% 194%
Second highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 36% 139% 269%
Middle 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 159% 363%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 185% 516%
Lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 206% 1,138%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 129% 404% 0% 128% 400%
Sex
Female 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 156% 564%
Male 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 109% 274%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 133% 446%
White, non-Hispanic 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 11% 130% 403% 11% 130% 397%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 1% -1% 0% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 128% 353%
All other races, non-Hispanic 8% 2% -1% 0% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 103% 381%
Country of birth
United States 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 6% 130% 369% 6% 129% 365%
Other countries 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 124% 602%
Highest education level
Graduate 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 17% 113% 278% 18% 112% 274%
Bachelor 11% 2% -1% 0% 0% 5% 117% 311% 5% 117% 309%
Associate 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 133% 346%
High school 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 143% 529%
Less than high school 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 133% 622%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 40% 96% 138% 39% 95% 137%
Second highest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 31% 128% 192% 31% 127% 191%
Middle 8% 1% 0% 0% 0% 26% 157% 271% 26% 156% 270%
Second lowest 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 218% 560%
Lowest 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 123% 2,088%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 42% 96% 137% 42% 96% 137%
Second highest 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 39% 129% 194% 38% 129% 193%
Middle 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 159% 274% 24% 158% 273%
Second lowest 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 214% 498%
Lowest 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 96% 2,182%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 46% 99% 163% 46% 99% 163%
Second highest 10% 1% 0% 0% 0% 44% 131% 267% 43% 130% 262%
Middle 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 35% 158% 359% 35% 157% 356%
Second lowest 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 187% 569%
Lowest 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 40% 1,050%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 17% 3% -4% 0% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 117% 346%
Sex
Female 18% 4% -4% 0% 0% 5% 145% 519% 6% 140% 499%
Male 16% 1% -3% 0% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 101% 241%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 16% 3% -4% 0% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 122% 391%
White, non-Hispanic 18% 3% -4% 0% 0% 17% 120% 343% 17% 117% 325%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 15% 1% -3% 0% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 116% 328%
All other races, non-Hispanic 19% 3% -4% 0% 0% 0% 105% 349% 0% 103% 332%
Country of birth
United States 18% 2% -4% 0% 0% 9% 120% 319% 9% 117% 306%
Other countries 15% 3% -3% 0% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 119% 554%
Highest education level
Graduate 33% 2% -9% 0% 0% 21% 109% 259% 21% 105% 237%
Bachelor 24% 3% -6% 0% 0% 13% 110% 278% 13% 106% 255%
Associate 13% 3% -2% 0% 0% 0% 124% 318% 0% 122% 308%
High school 11% 3% -1% 0% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 128% 439%
Less than high school 10% 3% -1% 0% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 124% 581%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 20% 1% -2% 0% 0% 40% 88% 127% 39% 87% 126%
Second highest 18% 2% -3% 0% 0% 34% 118% 177% 34% 117% 175%
Middle 19% 3% -4% 0% 0% 30% 144% 246% 30% 140% 243%
Second lowest 18% 3% -7% 0% 0% 9% 196% 466% 7% 187% 456%
Lowest 9% 4% -6% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 117% 1,714%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 20% 1% -2% 0% 0% 43% 89% 127% 42% 88% 126%
Second highest 19% 2% -3% 0% 0% 38% 119% 179% 38% 117% 176%
Middle 20% 3% -5% 0% 0% 27% 144% 249% 27% 139% 244%
Second lowest 20% 3% -8% 0% 0% 13% 192% 442% 13% 182% 430%
Lowest 7% 4% -2% 0% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 124% 1,748%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 21% 1% -3% 0% 0% 45% 91% 145% 45% 90% 143%
Second highest 20% 2% -4% 0% 0% 46% 122% 227% 45% 119% 216%
Middle 20% 3% -5% 0% 0% 31% 140% 302% 31% 135% 289%
Second lowest 18% 4% -6% 0% 0% 11% 172% 532% 11% 166% 509%
Lowest 7% 3% -1% 0% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 83% 1,006%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 20% 3% -5% 0% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 122% 352%
Sex
Female 21% 4% -6% 0% 0% 1% 149% 531% 5% 144% 506%
Male 18% 2% -4% 0% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 105% 243%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 18% 3% -4% 0% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 126% 394%
White, non-Hispanic 21% 3% -5% 0% 0% 21% 126% 363% 21% 122% 342%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 17% 2% -4% 0% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 119% 297%
All other races, non-Hispanic 20% 3% -4% 0% 0% 0% 113% 335% 0% 111% 320%
Country of birth
United States 22% 3% -5% 0% 0% 11% 125% 324% 11% 122% 309%
Other countries 15% 3% -4% 0% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 120% 504%
Highest education level
Graduate 38% 3% -12% 0% 0% 30% 116% 286% 31% 111% 245%
Bachelor 26% 3% -8% 0% 0% 9% 115% 300% 9% 112% 271%
Associate 16% 3% -2% 0% 0% 0% 129% 325% 0% 127% 312%
High school 13% 3% -2% 0% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 131% 430%
Less than high school 11% 3% -2% 0% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 127% 571%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 22% 1% -3% 0% 0% 45% 95% 133% 45% 94% 132%
Second highest 22% 2% -3% 0% 0% 43% 124% 181% 42% 122% 179%
Middle 21% 3% -5% 0% 0% 23% 149% 251% 23% 145% 245%
Second lowest 22% 4% -13% 0% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 194% 478%
Lowest 11% 5% -10% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 118% 1,540%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 22% 1% -3% 0% 0% 46% 95% 133% 46% 94% 132%
Second highest 22% 2% -3% 0% 0% 44% 123% 182% 43% 121% 181%
Middle 23% 3% -6% 0% 0% 30% 149% 254% 29% 144% 246%
Second lowest 23% 4% -14% 0% 0% 2% 202% 466% 6% 188% 440%
Lowest 8% 5% -4% 0% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 124% 1,569%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 23% 1% -3% 0% 0% 50% 98% 152% 50% 97% 149%
Second highest 24% 3% -5% 0% 0% 46% 125% 235% 45% 122% 219%
Middle 23% 4% -6% 0% 0% 36% 146% 316% 35% 141% 302%
Second lowest 21% 4% -8% 0% 0% 8% 183% 543% 8% 173% 527%
Lowest 7% 3% -2% 0% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 82% 802%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 80%
Sex
Female 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 90%
Country of birth
United States 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 42% 73%
Bachelor 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 76%
Associate 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 76%
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 83%
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 44% 64%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 79%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 70% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 50% 16% 34% 50%
Second highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 66%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 81%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 17% 36% 54% 17% 36% 54%
Second highest 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 63%
Middle 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 70%
Second lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 86%
Lowest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 91%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 82% 24% 47% 82%
Sex
Female 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 71% 22% 42% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 51% 90%
White, non-Hispanic 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 78% 23% 45% 78%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 26% 51% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 80%
Country of birth
United States 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 78% 23% 46% 78%
Other countries 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 26% 53% 90% 26% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 3% 0% 0% 0% 21% 41% 74% 21% 41% 73%
Bachelor 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 78%
Associate 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 74% 24% 46% 74%
High school 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 27% 50% 87%
Less than high school 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 65% 29% 45% 65%
Second lowest 7% 1% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 54% 81%
Lowest 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 56% 73% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 15% 33% 49% 15% 33% 48%
Second highest 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 67% 30% 45% 67%
Second lowest 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 54% 82%
Lowest 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 55% 71% 115%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 22% 39% 62% 22% 39% 62%
Middle 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 45% 72% 28% 45% 71%
Second lowest 6% 1% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 34% 52% 84%
Lowest 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 49% 66% 101%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 14% 2% -2% 0% 0% 24% 47% 83% 24% 47% 81%
Sex
Female 14% 3% -2% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Male 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 70%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 14% 2% -2% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 26% 50% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 23% 45% 80% 23% 45% 77%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 11% 1% -1% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 29% 52% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 17% 3% -2% 0% 0% 24% 45% 85% 24% 45% 82%
Country of birth
United States 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 77%
Other countries 15% 3% -2% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 26% 3% -5% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 71%
Bachelor 18% 4% -3% 0% 0% 21% 42% 81% 21% 42% 77%
Associate 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 25% 46% 77% 25% 46% 76%
High school 9% 1% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 28% 50% 86%
Less than high school 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 57%
Middle 13% 3% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 30% 45% 64%
Second lowest 17% 3% -3% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 39% 53% 78%
Lowest 13% 2% -2% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 55% 72% 118%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 15% 34% 48% 15% 34% 48%
Second highest 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 24% 39% 59% 23% 38% 58%
Middle 14% 3% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 67% 30% 45% 65%
Second lowest 17% 2% -3% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 38% 53% 78%
Lowest 13% 2% -2% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 54% 71% 113%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 14% 2% -1% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 50%
Second highest 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 23% 40% 63% 23% 40% 61%
Middle 14% 3% -2% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 69%
Second lowest 15% 3% -2% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 34% 51% 82%
Lowest 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 48% 66% 101%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 15% 3% -2% 0% 0% 23% 47% 84% 23% 46% 81%
Sex
Female 15% 4% -2% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 15% 2% -2% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 42% 69%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 15% 3% -2% 0% 0% 26% 50% 88% 25% 49% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 15% 3% -2% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 44% 77%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 13% 1% -1% 0% 0% 27% 52% 84% 27% 51% 81%
All other races, non-Hispanic 17% 3% -2% 0% 0% 22% 43% 83% 22% 43% 79%
Country of birth
United States 15% 3% -2% 0% 0% 23% 46% 80% 23% 45% 77%
Other countries 15% 3% -2% 0% 0% 26% 52% 90% 26% 51% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 28% 4% -6% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 72%
Bachelor 18% 4% -3% 0% 0% 21% 42% 82% 21% 41% 76%
Associate 11% 2% -1% 0% 0% 23% 46% 76% 23% 45% 74%
High school 9% 2% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 26% 50% 87%
Less than high school 11% 2% -1% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 23% 39% 56% 23% 39% 55%
Middle 14% 3% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 30% 45% 64%
Second lowest 19% 4% -4% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 38% 54% 78%
Lowest 16% 3% -5% 0% 0% 57% 75% 133% 54% 72% 123%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 12% 2% -1% 0% 0% 15% 33% 47% 15% 33% 47%
Second highest 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 22% 38% 58% 22% 38% 57%
Middle 14% 3% -1% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 30% 45% 64%
Second lowest 20% 3% -5% 0% 0% 38% 54% 84% 37% 53% 78%
Lowest 15% 3% -3% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 54% 72% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 13% 2% -1% 0% 0% 16% 35% 50% 16% 34% 49%
Second highest 15% 3% -1% 0% 0% 22% 40% 62% 22% 39% 61%
Middle 16% 4% -2% 0% 0% 27% 45% 72% 27% 45% 69%
Second lowest 18% 3% -4% 0% 0% 35% 53% 85% 34% 52% 80%
Lowest 13% 2% -2% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 49% 66% 104%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: WEPGPO OACT1001v1 02/23/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision F1.