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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Credit Earnings to Caregivers' Records

Details: Up to 5 years at one-half average wage when caring for children under age 6

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Sex
Female 1% 13% 0% 0% 3%
Male 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 28% 0% 0% 9%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 15% 0% 0% 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 17% 0% 0% 5%
Country of birth
United States 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 27% 0% 0% 9%
Age
60–69 0% 29% 0% 0% 8%
70–79 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 14% 0% 0% 3%
Divorced 0% 12% 0% 0% 2%
Widowed 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
High school 0% 12% 0% 0% 2%
Less than high school 0% 25% 0% 0% 9%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
In poverty 0% 28% 0% 0% 14%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 1% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Lowest 0% 19% 0% 0% 7%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 13% 0% 0% 2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 15% 0% 0% 2%
Disabled worker only 0% 25% 0% 0% 7%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 26% 0% 0% 7%
Sex
Female 1% 31% 0% 0% 8%
Male 0% 21% 0% 0% 6%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 1% 39% 0% 0% 10%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 20% 0% 0% 5%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 35% 0% 0% 9%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 33% 0% 0% 9%
Country of birth
United States 1% 22% 0% 0% 5%
Other countries 1% 41% 0% 0% 11%
Age
60–69 0% 35% 0% 0% 10%
70–79 1% 29% 0% 0% 8%
80–89 1% 20% 0% 0% 5%
90 or older 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 30% 0% 0% 8%
Divorced 0% 26% 0% 0% 7%
Widowed 0% 18% 0% 0% 5%
Never married 0% 23% 0% 0% 7%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 16% 0% 0% 4%
Bachelor 1% 18% 0% 0% 4%
Associate 1% 24% 0% 0% 5%
High school 1% 32% 0% 0% 8%
Less than high school 1% 49% 0% 0% 19%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 25% 0% 0% 6%
In poverty 0% 62% 0% 7% 60%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 1% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Second highest 1% 18% 0% 0% 4%
Middle 1% 22% 0% 0% 5%
Second lowest 1% 31% 0% 0% 7%
Lowest 0% 48% 0% 0% 20%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 27% 0% 0% 7%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 14% 0% 0% 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 10% 39% 0% 0% 12%
Disabled worker only 0% 39% 0% 0% 11%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 28% 0% 0% 8%
Sex
Female 1% 33% 0% 0% 9%
Male 0% 22% 0% 0% 6%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 1% 33% 0% 0% 10%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 23% 0% 0% 6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 40% 0% 0% 10%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 36% 0% 0% 9%
Country of birth
United States 1% 24% 0% 0% 6%
Other countries 1% 42% 0% 0% 16%
Age
60–69 0% 34% 0% 0% 10%
70–79 1% 29% 0% 0% 8%
80–89 1% 24% 0% 0% 6%
90 or older 1% 17% 0% 0% 4%
Marital status
Married 1% 32% 0% 0% 8%
Divorced 0% 27% 0% 0% 7%
Widowed 0% 24% 0% 0% 7%
Never married 0% 23% 0% 0% 7%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 17% 0% 0% 4%
Bachelor 1% 21% 0% 0% 6%
Associate 1% 27% 0% 0% 6%
High school 1% 35% 0% 0% 9%
Less than high school 1% 45% 0% 0% 25%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 27% 0% 0% 7%
In poverty 0% 63% 0% 12% 74%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 1% 13% 0% 0% 2%
Second highest 1% 19% 0% 0% 4%
Middle 1% 25% 0% 0% 5%
Second lowest 0% 33% 0% 0% 7%
Lowest 0% 50% 0% 1% 28%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 27% 0% 0% 7%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 21% 0% 0% 6%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 9% 46% 0% 0% 18%
Disabled worker only 0% 37% 0% 0% 11%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 10% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Country of birth
United States 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 0% 20% 0% 0% 3%
Age
60–69 0% 18% 0% 0% 2%
70–79 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
High school 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Lowest 0% 18% 0% 0% 4%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 6% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 19% 0% 0% 2%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Sex
Female 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Male 0% 17% 0% 0% 2%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 31% 0% 0% 6%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 26% 0% 0% 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 24% 0% 0% 4%
Country of birth
United States 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Other countries 0% 32% 0% 0% 6%
Age
60–69 0% 25% 0% 0% 4%
70–79 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
80–89 0% 14% 0% 0% 1%
90 or older 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 21% 0% 0% 2%
Divorced 0% 20% 0% 0% 3%
Widowed 0% 14% 0% 0% 2%
Never married 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Bachelor 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Associate 0% 17% 0% 0% 2%
High school 0% 23% 0% 0% 4%
Less than high school 1% 40% 0% 0% 8%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 17% 0% 0% 2%
In poverty 1% 58% 0% 4% 40%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 15% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 27% 0% 0% 3%
Lowest 1% 45% 0% 0% 11%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 19% 0% 0% 2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 11% 0% 0% 1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 23% 0% 0% 4%
Disabled worker only 0% 32% 0% 0% 6%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 22% 0% 0% 3%
Sex
Female 0% 25% 0% 0% 4%
Male 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 27% 0% 0% 5%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0% 2%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 31% 0% 0% 5%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 26% 0% 0% 5%
Country of birth
United States 0% 18% 0% 0% 2%
Other countries 1% 34% 0% 0% 8%
Age
60–69 0% 26% 0% 0% 4%
70–79 0% 23% 0% 0% 4%
80–89 0% 19% 0% 0% 3%
90 or older 0% 13% 0% 0% 1%
Marital status
Married 0% 24% 0% 0% 3%
Divorced 0% 22% 0% 0% 4%
Widowed 0% 20% 0% 0% 4%
Never married 0% 18% 0% 0% 3%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 12% 0% 0% 1%
Bachelor 0% 15% 0% 0% 2%
Associate 0% 20% 0% 0% 3%
High school 0% 28% 0% 0% 5%
Less than high school 1% 38% 0% 0% 9%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
In poverty 1% 61% 0% 9% 58%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 19% 0% 0% 1%
Second lowest 0% 31% 0% 0% 4%
Lowest 1% 49% 0% 0% 17%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 21% 0% 0% 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 17% 0% 0% 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 31% 0% 0% 6%
Disabled worker only 0% 30% 0% 0% 6%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,306 -159 -4%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,873 -84 -4%
Male 5% 4% 1,507 1,433 -74 -4%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 638 -33 -5%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,855 -88 -4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 552 -24 -4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 6% 273 261 -12 -4%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,398 -87 -3%
Other countries 9% 8% 979 908 -71 -7%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,537 -118 -7%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,306 -39 -2%
80–89 3% 3% 417 416 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 1% 646 568 -77 -11%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,130 -44 -3%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 798 -14 -1%
Never married 16% 16% 832 809 -22 -2%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 84 -6 -7%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 299 -22 -7%
Associate 4% 4% 694 662 -32 -4%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,543 -49 -3%
Less than high school 13% 12% 765 717 -48 -6%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,237 -118 -5%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 656 -8 -1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 178 -11 -6%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 236 -21 -8%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 4% 3,782 3,177 -604 -15%
Sex
Female 5% 4% 2,099 1,737 -362 -17%
Male 4% 4% 1,683 1,441 -241 -14%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 6% 1,058 855 -203 -19%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,529 -211 -12%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 6% 657 538 -118 -18%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 4% 326 255 -70 -21%
Country of birth
United States 4% 3% 2,511 2,181 -329 -13%
Other countries 7% 5% 1,271 996 -274 -21%
Age
60–69 6% 5% 1,402 1,158 -244 -17%
70–79 4% 4% 1,337 1,110 -227 -16%
80–89 4% 4% 873 754 -118 -13%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 156 -13 -8%
Marital status
Married 2% 1% 711 503 -207 -29%
Divorced 7% 6% 1,070 906 -164 -15%
Widowed 5% 5% 817 729 -88 -10%
Never married 12% 11% 1,183 1,039 -144 -12%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 169 126 -42 -25%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 285 -58 -17%
Associate 3% 3% 630 558 -72 -11%
High school 6% 5% 1,694 1,417 -277 -16%
Less than high school 12% 10% 944 791 -152 -16%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 4% 2,839 2,392 -447 -15%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 459 -48 -9%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 218 177 -40 -18%
Disabled worker only 7% 5% 216 148 -67 -31%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 2% 2,822 2,017 -805 -28%
Sex
Female 3% 2% 1,527 1,083 -443 -29%
Male 3% 2% 1,296 934 -361 -27%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 3% 963 715 -248 -25%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 816 -308 -27%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 3% 426 287 -138 -32%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 2% 309 199 -109 -35%
Country of birth
United States 2% 2% 1,770 1,297 -472 -26%
Other countries 5% 4% 1,052 720 -332 -31%
Age
60–69 4% 3% 945 684 -260 -27%
70–79 3% 2% 1,057 724 -333 -31%
80–89 3% 2% 628 455 -173 -27%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 154 -37 -19%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 259 -210 -44%
Divorced 4% 2% 687 441 -245 -35%
Widowed 3% 2% 486 325 -161 -33%
Never married 7% 6% 1,179 992 -187 -15%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 106 -49 -31%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 165 -51 -23%
Associate 2% 2% 460 342 -117 -25%
High school 4% 3% 1,229 863 -366 -29%
Less than high school 8% 6% 761 542 -219 -28%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 2% 2,197 1,641 -556 -25%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 1% 314 185 -128 -41%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 2% 156 105 -50 -32%
Disabled worker only 4% 2% 156 87 -69 -44%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 23% 0% 0% 6% 6% 145% 450% 8% 148% 485%
Sex
Female 0% 28% 0% 0% 7% 26% 182% 644% 40% 190% 678%
Male 0% 18% 0% 0% 5% 0% 119% 266% 0% 121% 284%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 40% 0% 0% 11% 0% 162% 569% 0% 170% 674%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 18% 0% 0% 3% 15% 140% 406% 17% 142% 425%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 25% 0% 0% 8% 0% 149% 473% 0% 154% 505%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 30% 0% 0% 9% 0% 146% 508% 0% 154% 612%
Country of birth
United States 0% 18% 0% 0% 4% 12% 141% 416% 14% 142% 429%
Other countries 0% 40% 0% 0% 12% 0% 164% 599% 0% 175% 708%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 16% 0% 0% 3% 23% 125% 264% 26% 126% 277%
Bachelor 0% 17% 0% 0% 3% 22% 137% 362% 26% 139% 387%
Associate 0% 20% 0% 0% 4% 12% 146% 393% 15% 148% 420%
High school 0% 25% 0% 0% 6% 0% 153% 519% 6% 156% 550%
Less than high school 0% 38% 0% 0% 16% 0% 161% 803% 0% 177% 921%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 40% 108% 157%
Second highest 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 134% 202%
Middle 0% 30% 0% 0% 4% 14% 160% 270% 15% 161% 275%
Second lowest 0% 44% 0% 0% 9% 23% 228% 504% 23% 238% 512%
Lowest 0% 30% 0% 0% 36% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 322% 1,607%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 47% 108% 152%
Second highest 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 136% 202%
Middle 0% 29% 0% 0% 3% 15% 161% 267% 15% 163% 269%
Second lowest 0% 45% 0% 0% 8% 18% 218% 454% 19% 225% 456%
Lowest 0% 33% 0% 0% 36% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 376% 1,632%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 56% 115% 195%
Second highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 36% 139% 269% 36% 139% 274%
Middle 0% 21% 0% 0% 3% 19% 160% 363% 19% 160% 370%
Second lowest 0% 42% 0% 0% 7% 6% 185% 516% 6% 191% 532%
Lowest 0% 37% 0% 1% 34% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 249% 1,201%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 28% 0% 0% 9% 0% 129% 404% 0% 135% 482%
Sex
Female 0% 35% 0% 0% 10% 0% 156% 570% 13% 165% 656%
Male 0% 22% 0% 0% 7% 0% 110% 275% 0% 114% 322%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 29% 0% 0% 12% 0% 133% 447% 0% 146% 604%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 24% 0% 0% 6% 11% 130% 403% 16% 133% 444%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 42% 0% 0% 14% 0% 130% 355% 0% 137% 445%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 31% 0% 0% 11% 0% 104% 383% 0% 119% 577%
Country of birth
United States 0% 26% 0% 0% 7% 6% 130% 369% 9% 133% 407%
Other countries 0% 34% 0% 0% 23% 0% 125% 602% 0% 145% 868%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 18% 0% 0% 4% 17% 113% 278% 24% 114% 304%
Bachelor 0% 22% 0% 0% 6% 5% 117% 311% 14% 121% 353%
Associate 0% 28% 0% 0% 7% 0% 133% 348% 0% 137% 400%
High school 0% 33% 0% 0% 10% 0% 143% 533% 0% 150% 612%
Less than high school 0% 36% 0% 0% 24% 0% 133% 627% 0% 154% 846%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 40% 96% 138% 40% 96% 138%
Second highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 31% 128% 192% 31% 128% 194%
Middle 0% 42% 0% 0% 5% 26% 157% 271% 27% 160% 275%
Second lowest 0% 55% 0% 3% 14% 0% 220% 568% 0% 234% 592%
Lowest 0% 32% 0% 2% 66% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 261% 2,334%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 42% 96% 137% 42% 96% 137%
Second highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 39% 129% 194% 39% 129% 195%
Middle 0% 43% 0% 0% 5% 24% 159% 274% 25% 162% 282%
Second lowest 0% 55% 0% 3% 12% 0% 215% 505% 0% 229% 524%
Lowest 0% 31% 0% 3% 67% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 279% 2,470%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 46% 99% 163% 46% 99% 164%
Second highest 0% 14% 0% 0% 1% 44% 131% 267% 44% 131% 270%
Middle 0% 37% 0% 0% 5% 35% 158% 359% 35% 160% 371%
Second lowest 0% 54% 0% 2% 10% 0% 188% 575% 0% 196% 606%
Lowest 0% 33% 0% 9% 68% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 163% 1,411%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 28% 0% 0% 9% 0% 120% 357% 0% 125% 429%
Sex
Female 0% 34% 0% 0% 10% 5% 145% 519% 23% 152% 603%
Male 0% 22% 0% 0% 7% 0% 103% 246% 0% 106% 288%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 28% 0% 0% 11% 0% 125% 401% 0% 132% 510%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 25% 0% 0% 6% 17% 120% 343% 23% 123% 383%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 39% 0% 0% 15% 0% 118% 333% 0% 126% 410%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 31% 0% 0% 10% 0% 105% 349% 0% 113% 479%
Country of birth
United States 0% 26% 0% 0% 7% 9% 120% 319% 14% 122% 353%
Other countries 0% 35% 0% 0% 26% 0% 121% 565% 0% 140% 813%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 18% 0% 0% 4% 21% 109% 259% 27% 110% 280%
Bachelor 0% 23% 0% 0% 6% 13% 110% 278% 20% 113% 317%
Associate 0% 27% 0% 0% 7% 0% 124% 318% 4% 126% 353%
High school 0% 33% 0% 0% 11% 0% 129% 441% 0% 136% 524%
Less than high school 0% 37% 0% 0% 32% 0% 125% 594% 0% 142% 810%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 40% 88% 127% 40% 88% 127%
Second highest 0% 11% 0% 0% 1% 34% 118% 177% 34% 119% 177%
Middle 0% 39% 0% 0% 5% 30% 144% 246% 30% 146% 252%
Second lowest 0% 55% 0% 3% 14% 9% 196% 466% 10% 208% 487%
Lowest 0% 34% 0% 3% 67% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 240% 2,037%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 43% 89% 127% 43% 89% 127%
Second highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 38% 119% 179% 39% 119% 179%
Middle 0% 39% 0% 0% 5% 27% 144% 249% 29% 146% 254%
Second lowest 0% 55% 0% 3% 11% 13% 192% 442% 16% 203% 465%
Lowest 0% 34% 0% 5% 68% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 253% 2,080%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 45% 91% 145% 45% 91% 145%
Second highest 0% 13% 0% 0% 1% 46% 122% 227% 46% 122% 230%
Middle 0% 34% 0% 0% 5% 31% 140% 302% 32% 141% 309%
Second lowest 0% 54% 0% 2% 10% 11% 172% 532% 14% 181% 556%
Lowest 0% 37% 0% 9% 68% 0% 80% 996% 0% 180% 1,272%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 29% 0% 0% 9% 0% 125% 366% 0% 130% 445%
Sex
Female 0% 35% 0% 0% 10% 1% 149% 531% 27% 158% 618%
Male 0% 22% 0% 0% 8% 0% 107% 252% 0% 111% 294%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 29% 0% 0% 11% 0% 129% 400% 0% 136% 493%
White, non-Hispanic 0% 25% 0% 0% 7% 21% 126% 363% 29% 129% 425%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 39% 0% 0% 14% 0% 121% 306% 0% 129% 382%
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 29% 0% 0% 9% 0% 113% 335% 0% 120% 447%
Country of birth
United States 0% 26% 0% 0% 7% 11% 125% 324% 18% 128% 365%
Other countries 0% 34% 0% 0% 23% 0% 123% 516% 0% 141% 718%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 20% 0% 0% 5% 30% 116% 286% 35% 117% 307%
Bachelor 0% 22% 0% 0% 6% 9% 115% 300% 19% 118% 356%
Associate 0% 28% 0% 0% 7% 0% 129% 325% 0% 132% 366%
High school 0% 33% 0% 0% 11% 0% 133% 439% 0% 140% 526%
Less than high school 0% 38% 0% 0% 31% 0% 129% 578% 0% 147% 749%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 45% 95% 133% 45% 95% 134%
Second highest 0% 12% 0% 0% 1% 43% 124% 181% 43% 124% 182%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 5% 23% 149% 251% 24% 150% 256%
Second lowest 0% 55% 0% 3% 14% 0% 208% 500% 8% 219% 521%
Lowest 0% 35% 0% 4% 68% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 260% 1,897%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 46% 95% 133% 46% 95% 134%
Second highest 0% 10% 0% 0% 1% 44% 123% 182% 44% 124% 183%
Middle 0% 41% 0% 0% 5% 30% 149% 254% 31% 151% 259%
Second lowest 0% 54% 0% 3% 11% 2% 202% 466% 9% 215% 483%
Lowest 0% 36% 0% 6% 67% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 274% 1,923%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 50% 98% 152% 50% 98% 153%
Second highest 0% 14% 0% 0% 1% 46% 125% 235% 46% 125% 239%
Middle 0% 36% 0% 0% 5% 36% 146% 316% 37% 148% 324%
Second lowest 0% 53% 0% 2% 10% 8% 183% 543% 9% 192% 572%
Lowest 0% 37% 0% 10% 68% 0% 73% 797% 0% 189% 1,105%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 31% 1% -8% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 45% 74%
Sex
Female 43% 2% -12% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 50% 84%
Male 20% 1% -4% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 41% 64%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 47% 2% -11% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 49% 77%
White, non-Hispanic 27% 1% -7% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 43% 71%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 31% 1% -7% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 81%
All other races, non-Hispanic 42% 2% -10% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 47% 82%
Country of birth
United States 27% 1% -7% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 72%
Other countries 51% 2% -12% -1% 0% 29% 53% 90% 28% 52% 83%
Highest education level
Graduate 25% 1% -5% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 41% 69%
Bachelor 27% 1% -7% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 72%
Associate 31% 1% -8% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 44% 71%
High school 32% 1% -9% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 47% 77%
Less than high school 48% 2% -12% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 54% 86%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 55%
Middle 35% 2% -3% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 43% 63%
Second lowest 59% 2% -9% -2% 0% 38% 51% 79% 37% 50% 74%
Lowest 49% 1% -21% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 49% 65% 99%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 34% 50%
Second highest 11% 1% -1% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 32% 1% -3% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 64%
Second lowest 59% 3% -9% -2% 0% 37% 51% 81% 36% 50% 74%
Lowest 51% 1% -20% -1% 0% 51% 68% 112% 48% 64% 93%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 11% 1% -1% 0% 0% 17% 36% 54% 17% 36% 53%
Second highest 21% 1% -4% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 62%
Middle 30% 1% -6% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 67%
Second lowest 47% 2% -10% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 49% 78%
Lowest 48% 1% -13% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 43% 62% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 33% 1% -9% 0% 0% 24% 47% 82% 23% 46% 75%
Sex
Female 44% 2% -12% 0% 0% 27% 52% 90% 27% 51% 81%
Male 24% 1% -5% 0% 0% 22% 43% 71% 22% 42% 68%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 34% 1% -11% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 50% 82%
White, non-Hispanic 30% 1% -8% 0% 0% 23% 45% 78% 23% 44% 72%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 47% 2% -10% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 25% 50% 77%
All other races, non-Hispanic 41% 1% -9% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 75%
Country of birth
United States 31% 1% -8% 0% 0% 23% 46% 78% 23% 45% 73%
Other countries 42% 2% -12% 0% 0% 26% 53% 90% 26% 52% 85%
Highest education level
Graduate 22% 2% -5% 0% 0% 21% 41% 74% 21% 41% 71%
Bachelor 28% 1% -8% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 73%
Associate 33% 1% -8% 0% 0% 24% 46% 74% 24% 46% 69%
High school 39% 1% -10% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 27% 49% 80%
Less than high school 43% 2% -13% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 54% 84%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 55%
Middle 33% 2% -3% 0% 0% 30% 45% 65% 30% 45% 64%
Second lowest 63% 2% -9% -2% 0% 40% 55% 82% 39% 53% 76%
Lowest 56% 2% -23% -4% 0% 56% 73% 124% 53% 67% 101%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 33% 49% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 11% 1% -1% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 32% 2% -3% 0% 0% 30% 45% 67% 30% 45% 66%
Second lowest 61% 2% -10% -2% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 52% 76%
Lowest 57% 1% -21% -4% 0% 55% 71% 116% 51% 66% 97%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 19% 1% -3% 0% 0% 22% 39% 62% 22% 38% 61%
Middle 34% 2% -6% 0% 0% 28% 45% 72% 28% 45% 68%
Second lowest 52% 2% -11% -1% 0% 35% 52% 85% 34% 51% 78%
Lowest 54% 2% -15% -2% 0% 50% 66% 102% 48% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 32% 1% -9% 0% 0% 24% 47% 83% 24% 47% 77%
Sex
Female 42% 1% -12% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 51% 83%
Male 23% 1% -5% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 69%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 31% 1% -10% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 49% 81%
White, non-Hispanic 29% 1% -9% 0% 0% 23% 45% 80% 23% 45% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 45% 1% -9% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 29% 52% 77%
All other races, non-Hispanic 37% 2% -8% 0% 0% 24% 45% 85% 24% 45% 78%
Country of birth
United States 30% 1% -8% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 74%
Other countries 41% 2% -12% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 51% 86%
Highest education level
Graduate 24% 1% -5% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 74%
Bachelor 27% 2% -7% 0% 0% 21% 42% 81% 21% 42% 76%
Associate 31% 1% -8% 0% 0% 25% 46% 77% 25% 46% 72%
High school 38% 1% -10% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 28% 50% 79%
Less than high school 41% 1% -12% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 31% 54% 83%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 57%
Middle 30% 2% -3% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 64%
Second lowest 60% 2% -9% -2% 0% 40% 54% 81% 39% 53% 77%
Lowest 56% 2% -21% -4% 0% 57% 74% 125% 54% 68% 104%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 48% 15% 34% 48%
Second highest 11% 1% -1% 0% 0% 24% 39% 59% 24% 39% 58%
Middle 30% 2% -3% 0% 0% 31% 45% 67% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 60% 2% -9% -2% 0% 39% 53% 81% 38% 52% 77%
Lowest 56% 1% -20% -4% 0% 56% 73% 118% 52% 67% 100%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 18% 1% -3% 0% 0% 23% 40% 63% 23% 40% 61%
Middle 31% 2% -6% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 68%
Second lowest 51% 2% -11% -1% 0% 35% 52% 86% 35% 51% 78%
Lowest 53% 1% -15% -2% 0% 50% 67% 104% 48% 63% 93%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 32% 1% -9% 0% 0% 23% 47% 84% 23% 47% 77%
Sex
Female 42% 1% -13% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 28% 51% 84%
Male 23% 1% -5% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 68%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 32% 1% -10% 0% 0% 26% 50% 88% 26% 49% 80%
White, non-Hispanic 29% 1% -9% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 43% 1% -9% 0% 0% 27% 52% 84% 27% 51% 76%
All other races, non-Hispanic 36% 1% -8% 0% 0% 22% 43% 83% 22% 43% 76%
Country of birth
United States 30% 1% -8% 0% 0% 23% 46% 80% 23% 46% 74%
Other countries 40% 1% -11% 0% 0% 26% 52% 90% 26% 51% 84%
Highest education level
Graduate 24% 1% -5% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 75%
Bachelor 27% 1% -7% 0% 0% 21% 42% 82% 21% 42% 76%
Associate 31% 1% -8% 0% 0% 23% 46% 76% 23% 45% 71%
High school 38% 1% -11% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 79%
Less than high school 42% 2% -13% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 53% 83%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 11% 1% -1% 0% 0% 23% 39% 56% 23% 39% 56%
Middle 31% 1% -3% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 63%
Second lowest 59% 2% -9% -2% 0% 40% 55% 82% 39% 53% 77%
Lowest 58% 2% -24% -4% 0% 57% 75% 133% 53% 68% 109%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 33% 47% 15% 33% 47%
Second highest 10% 1% -1% 0% 0% 22% 38% 58% 22% 38% 57%
Middle 30% 2% -3% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 59% 2% -9% -2% 0% 38% 54% 84% 38% 53% 78%
Lowest 59% 2% -23% -5% 0% 56% 74% 124% 53% 67% 104%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 50% 16% 35% 50%
Second highest 18% 1% -3% 0% 0% 22% 40% 62% 22% 40% 61%
Middle 31% 1% -5% 0% 0% 27% 45% 72% 27% 45% 68%
Second lowest 51% 2% -11% -1% 0% 35% 53% 85% 35% 51% 78%
Lowest 55% 2% -16% -2% 0% 51% 67% 108% 49% 64% 97%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: PIA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision B7.3.