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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Early Eligibility Age (EEA) and
Full Retirement Age (FRA)

Details: One month every 2 years

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 47% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 47% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Male 48% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 48% 0% -5% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 46% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 46% 0% -5% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 55% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 46% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Other countries 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 53% 1% -7% -1% 0%
70–79 61% 0% -5% -2% 0%
80–89 39% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Divorced 46% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Widowed 34% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Never married 51% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 55% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Bachelor 53% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Associate 44% 0% -5% 0% 0%
High school 43% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Less than high school 46% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 48% 0% -5% 0% 0%
In poverty 39% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 57% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Second highest 52% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Middle 46% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Second lowest 42% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Lowest 40% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 53% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 29% 1% -3% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 50% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 64% 2% -11% -3% 0%
Sex
Female 65% 2% -11% -3% 0%
Male 62% 3% -11% -3% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 61% 2% -11% -2% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 65% 2% -10% -3% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 59% 2% -11% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 73% 2% -11% -4% 0%
Country of birth
United States 63% 2% -10% -3% 0%
Other countries 69% 2% -11% -3% 0%
Age
60–69 58% 2% -33% -2% 0%
70–79 68% 3% -10% -3% 0%
80–89 64% 2% -7% -3% 0%
90 or older 65% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Marital status
Married 64% 2% -11% -3% 0%
Divorced 62% 3% -10% -3% 0%
Widowed 62% 2% -8% -2% 0%
Never married 66% 2% -11% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 73% 2% -11% -4% 0%
Bachelor 72% 2% -10% -4% 0%
Associate 60% 3% -11% -2% 0%
High school 58% 2% -11% -2% 0%
Less than high school 59% 2% -11% -2% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 64% 2% -11% -3% 0%
In poverty 67% 2% -12% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 72% 2% -11% -4% 0%
Second highest 68% 2% -11% -4% 0%
Middle 63% 3% -11% -3% 0%
Second lowest 59% 2% -10% -2% 0%
Lowest 57% 2% -10% -2% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 69% 2% -11% -4% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 52% 4% -7% -1% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 65% 1% -13% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Male 32% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 36% 0% -3% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 30% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 33% 0% -3% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 31% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Other countries 34% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 43% 1% -4% 0% 0%
70–79 43% 0% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Divorced 30% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Widowed 19% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 34% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 26% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 29% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Associate 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
High school 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 38% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 40% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Lowest 37% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 35% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 19% 1% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 54% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 56% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Male 53% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 54% 1% -7% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 55% 1% -5% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 50% 1% -7% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 56% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 54% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Other countries 56% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 52% 1% -10% -1% 0%
70–79 58% 1% -6% -1% 0%
80–89 55% 1% -4% -1% 0%
90 or older 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 61% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Divorced 49% 2% -6% 0% 0%
Widowed 46% 1% -5% 0% 0%
Never married 51% 1% -7% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 54% 1% -5% -1% 0%
Bachelor 56% 1% -5% -1% 0%
Associate 54% 1% -6% -1% 0%
High school 54% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Less than high school 53% 1% -7% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 54% 1% -6% -1% 0%
In poverty 60% 2% -10% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 36% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second highest 59% 1% -4% -1% 0%
Middle 62% 1% -5% -1% 0%
Second lowest 59% 1% -7% -2% 0%
Lowest 55% 2% -9% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 58% 1% -6% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 41% 2% -4% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 63% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,480 14 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,972 13 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,508 1 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 9% 672 676 4 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,950 7 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 581 3 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,493 7 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 987 7 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,670 14 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,346 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 647 1 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,175 0 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 827 13 1%
Never married 16% 16% 832 832 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 323 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 699 4 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,597 4 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 770 5 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,361 5 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 673 9 1%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 189 0 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 4,153 371 9%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,277 178 8%
Male 4% 5% 1,683 1,876 193 11%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 8% 1,058 1,163 104 9%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 1,741 1,949 207 11%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 8% 657 687 30 4%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 6% 326 354 28 8%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,801 290 11%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,352 80 6%
Age
60–69 6% 7% 1,402 1,674 271 19%
70–79 4% 5% 1,337 1,404 66 5%
80–89 4% 4% 873 905 32 3%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 830 118 16%
Divorced 7% 8% 1,070 1,190 120 11%
Widowed 5% 6% 817 874 56 6%
Never married 12% 13% 1,183 1,259 75 6%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 2% 169 193 23 13%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 389 45 13%
Associate 3% 4% 630 710 79 12%
High school 6% 7% 1,694 1,850 155 9%
Less than high school 12% 13% 944 1,011 66 7%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 373 373 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,780 -2 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 3,126 286 10%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 5% 508 568 59 11%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 4% 218 241 23 10%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 217 1 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 4% 2,822 3,401 579 20%
Sex
Female 3% 4% 1,527 1,756 229 15%
Male 3% 4% 1,296 1,645 349 27%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 5% 963 1,161 197 20%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 3% 1,125 1,384 259 23%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 489 62 14%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 309 368 59 19%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,770 2,210 439 24%
Other countries 5% 6% 1,052 1,192 139 13%
Age
60–69 4% 5% 945 1,305 360 38%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,207 149 14%
80–89 3% 3% 628 684 55 8%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 205 13 6%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 636 166 35%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 822 135 19%
Widowed 3% 4% 486 569 82 16%
Never married 7% 8% 1,179 1,374 195 16%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 203 46 29%
Bachelor 1% 2% 216 291 75 34%
Associate 2% 3% 460 585 125 27%
High school 4% 5% 1,229 1,461 232 18%
Less than high school 8% 9% 761 860 99 13%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 1% 0 592 591 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,809 -12 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 4% 2,197 2,680 482 21%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 383 69 22%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 156 183 27 17%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 144% 449%
Sex
Female 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 181% 643%
Male 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 118% 264%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 161% 569%
White, non-Hispanic 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 140% 404%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 148% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 145% 504%
Country of birth
United States 22% 0% -1% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 140% 413%
Other countries 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 163% 597%
Highest education level
Graduate 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 23% 124% 263%
Bachelor 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 22% 136% 359%
Associate 20% 0% -1% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 145% 393%
High school 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 152% 519%
Less than high school 15% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 160% 803%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 38% 0% -1% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 39% 107% 156%
Second highest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 133% 200%
Middle 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 159% 269%
Second lowest 15% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 22% 227% 504%
Lowest 12% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 253% 1,551%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 38% 0% -1% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 46% 108% 151%
Second highest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 135% 201%
Middle 19% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 161% 266%
Second lowest 17% 0% -1% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 217% 450%
Lowest 11% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 306% 1,581%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 39% 0% -1% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 55% 115% 192%
Second highest 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 36% 138% 269%
Middle 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 159% 362%
Second lowest 18% 0% -1% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 184% 516%
Lowest 11% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 204% 1,138%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 61% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 129% 404% 0% 123% 394%
Sex
Female 63% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 149% 556%
Male 59% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 105% 267%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 54% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 127% 440%
White, non-Hispanic 66% 0% -8% -5% 0% 11% 130% 403% 10% 124% 393%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 51% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 123% 346%
All other races, non-Hispanic 61% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 99% 369%
Country of birth
United States 63% 0% -8% -5% 0% 6% 130% 369% 5% 124% 356%
Other countries 54% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 118% 580%
Highest education level
Graduate 77% 0% -8% -5% 0% 17% 113% 278% 16% 107% 270%
Bachelor 70% 0% -8% -5% 0% 5% 117% 311% 4% 111% 301%
Associate 59% 0% -8% -5% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 128% 339%
High school 55% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 136% 523%
Less than high school 47% 0% -8% -4% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 127% 620%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 83% 0% -8% -5% 0% 40% 96% 138% 37% 91% 132%
Second highest 71% 0% -8% -5% 0% 31% 128% 192% 29% 121% 185%
Middle 61% 0% -8% -4% 0% 26% 157% 271% 25% 150% 265%
Second lowest 53% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 211% 556%
Lowest 36% 1% -9% -2% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 116% 2,004%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 86% 0% -8% -5% 0% 42% 96% 137% 39% 91% 131%
Second highest 71% 0% -8% -5% 0% 39% 129% 194% 36% 123% 187%
Middle 62% 0% -8% -4% 0% 24% 159% 274% 23% 151% 266%
Second lowest 54% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 206% 495%
Lowest 32% 1% -9% -2% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 90% 2,121%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 87% 0% -8% -5% 0% 46% 99% 163% 43% 94% 155%
Second highest 73% 0% -8% -5% 0% 44% 131% 267% 41% 125% 258%
Middle 63% 0% -8% -4% 0% 35% 158% 359% 34% 150% 349%
Second lowest 52% 0% -8% -3% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 182% 564%
Lowest 28% 0% -9% -2% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 35% 1,030%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 71% 0% -13% -8% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 110% 341%
Sex
Female 73% 0% -13% -8% 0% 5% 145% 519% 4% 132% 492%
Male 68% 0% -13% -8% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 94% 234%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 66% 0% -13% -7% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 114% 389%
White, non-Hispanic 76% 0% -13% -8% 0% 17% 120% 343% 15% 110% 323%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 58% 0% -13% -8% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 108% 326%
All other races, non-Hispanic 74% 0% -14% -10% 0% 0% 105% 349% 0% 96% 318%
Country of birth
United States 73% 0% -13% -8% 0% 9% 120% 319% 6% 110% 306%
Other countries 65% 0% -13% -8% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 110% 540%
Highest education level
Graduate 84% 0% -13% -9% 0% 21% 109% 259% 18% 99% 241%
Bachelor 81% 0% -13% -9% 0% 13% 110% 278% 10% 100% 258%
Associate 69% 0% -13% -7% 0% 0% 124% 318% 0% 113% 305%
High school 64% 1% -13% -6% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 119% 425%
Less than high school 61% 1% -14% -7% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 114% 567%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -13% -10% -4% 40% 88% 127% 34% 80% 116%
Second highest 81% 0% -13% -9% 0% 34% 118% 177% 30% 109% 166%
Middle 71% 0% -13% -7% 0% 30% 144% 246% 27% 132% 239%
Second lowest 64% 0% -13% -6% 0% 9% 196% 466% 0% 180% 455%
Lowest 44% 1% -14% -6% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 111% 1,661%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 94% 0% -13% -10% -4% 43% 89% 127% 37% 81% 116%
Second highest 81% 0% -13% -9% 0% 38% 119% 179% 34% 109% 168%
Middle 71% 0% -13% -7% 0% 27% 144% 249% 24% 132% 240%
Second lowest 66% 0% -13% -6% 0% 13% 192% 442% 11% 176% 428%
Lowest 42% 1% -14% -6% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 110% 1,713%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -13% -10% -4% 45% 91% 145% 40% 83% 134%
Second highest 83% 0% -13% -9% 0% 46% 122% 227% 41% 111% 215%
Middle 73% 0% -13% -7% 0% 31% 140% 302% 28% 128% 292%
Second lowest 64% 1% -13% -6% 0% 11% 172% 532% 8% 160% 512%
Lowest 39% 1% -14% -6% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 71% 960%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 71% 0% -19% -12% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 109% 338%
Sex
Female 74% 1% -19% -12% 0% 1% 149% 531% 0% 131% 490%
Male 68% 0% -19% -12% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 94% 234%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 67% 0% -19% -11% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 113% 377%
White, non-Hispanic 76% 0% -19% -12% 0% 21% 126% 363% 15% 110% 334%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 61% 0% -19% -12% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 106% 288%
All other races, non-Hispanic 75% 0% -19% -14% 0% 0% 113% 335% 0% 98% 299%
Country of birth
United States 73% 0% -18% -12% 0% 11% 125% 324% 6% 110% 304%
Other countries 65% 0% -20% -13% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 106% 468%
Highest education level
Graduate 83% 0% -19% -13% 0% 30% 116% 286% 23% 100% 253%
Bachelor 81% 0% -19% -13% 0% 9% 115% 300% 5% 101% 267%
Associate 68% 0% -18% -11% 0% 0% 129% 325% 0% 114% 306%
High school 65% 1% -19% -11% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 116% 412%
Less than high school 62% 0% -20% -12% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 112% 533%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -18% -13% -7% 45% 95% 133% 37% 83% 118%
Second highest 82% 0% -18% -13% 0% 43% 124% 181% 35% 108% 163%
Middle 70% 0% -18% -11% 0% 23% 149% 251% 18% 131% 238%
Second lowest 65% 0% -19% -10% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 184% 477%
Lowest 45% 1% -22% -10% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 102% 1,401%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 93% 0% -18% -13% -7% 46% 95% 133% 38% 83% 117%
Second highest 81% 0% -18% -13% 0% 44% 123% 182% 36% 108% 166%
Middle 71% 0% -18% -11% 0% 30% 149% 254% 25% 132% 241%
Second lowest 66% 0% -19% -10% 0% 2% 202% 466% 0% 179% 442%
Lowest 43% 1% -22% -10% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 101% 1,455%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 93% 0% -18% -13% -7% 50% 98% 152% 42% 86% 137%
Second highest 84% 0% -18% -12% 0% 46% 125% 235% 38% 109% 219%
Middle 73% 0% -18% -11% 0% 36% 146% 316% 29% 129% 297%
Second lowest 65% 0% -19% -10% 0% 8% 183% 543% 0% 162% 512%
Lowest 39% 1% -22% -12% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 57% 748%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 36% 0% -4% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 23% 46% 78%
Sex
Female 37% 0% -4% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 51% 90%
Male 35% 0% -3% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 41% 65%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 35% 0% -4% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 50% 84%
White, non-Hispanic 36% 0% -4% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 22% 43% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 32% 0% -3% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 85%
All other races, non-Hispanic 45% 0% -5% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 87%
Country of birth
United States 35% 0% -3% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 75%
Other countries 41% 0% -5% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 51% 0% -5% -1% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 41% 70%
Bachelor 47% 0% -5% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 73%
Associate 33% 0% -3% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 23% 44% 74%
High school 30% 0% -3% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 47% 82%
Less than high school 27% 0% -3% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 55% 0% -4% -1% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 30% 46%
Second highest 42% 0% -3% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 54%
Middle 36% 0% -4% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 27% 43% 62%
Second lowest 29% 0% -4% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 76%
Lowest 19% 0% -4% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 69% 117%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 58% 0% -4% -1% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 41% 0% -3% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 56%
Middle 34% 0% -4% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 64%
Second lowest 29% 0% -4% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 78%
Lowest 18% 0% -2% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 109%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 59% 0% -4% -1% 0% 17% 36% 54% 16% 36% 52%
Second highest 40% 0% -4% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 37% 62%
Middle 33% 0% -3% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 69%
Second lowest 29% 0% -4% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 32% 49% 85%
Lowest 21% 0% -3% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 44% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 57% 3% -22% -5% 0% 24% 47% 82% 17% 43% 75%
Sex
Female 57% 4% -23% -5% 0% 27% 52% 90% 20% 48% 85%
Male 57% 3% -21% -5% 0% 22% 43% 71% 15% 39% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 52% 4% -15% -2% 0% 28% 52% 90% 24% 48% 84%
White, non-Hispanic 58% 3% -25% -6% 0% 23% 45% 78% 15% 41% 72%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 50% 3% -17% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 22% 49% 78%
All other races, non-Hispanic 71% 3% -49% -8% 0% 22% 45% 81% 9% 40% 72%
Country of birth
United States 56% 3% -22% -5% 0% 23% 46% 78% 17% 42% 72%
Other countries 61% 3% -20% -6% 0% 26% 53% 90% 21% 49% 87%
Highest education level
Graduate 73% 3% -100% -8% 0% 21% 41% 74% 0% 34% 64%
Bachelor 67% 4% -33% -7% 0% 21% 42% 79% 10% 37% 70%
Associate 53% 3% -16% -2% 0% 24% 46% 74% 21% 43% 69%
High school 50% 3% -13% -1% 0% 28% 50% 87% 25% 48% 81%
Less than high school 44% 5% -12% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 29% 54% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 72% 4% -100% -8% 0% 15% 31% 46% 0% 25% 40%
Second highest 63% 2% -25% -6% 0% 23% 38% 56% 17% 34% 49%
Middle 58% 2% -16% -5% 0% 30% 45% 65% 24% 41% 57%
Second lowest 50% 4% -14% -1% 0% 40% 55% 82% 38% 52% 72%
Lowest 41% 5% -13% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 55% 69% 111%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 77% 4% -100% -8% 0% 15% 33% 49% 0% 25% 42%
Second highest 63% 3% -24% -6% 0% 22% 37% 58% 17% 33% 50%
Middle 58% 2% -16% -5% 0% 30% 45% 67% 24% 41% 59%
Second lowest 48% 3% -14% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 37% 52% 72%
Lowest 39% 5% -12% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 54% 67% 108%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 75% 4% -100% -8% 0% 16% 35% 51% 0% 26% 44%
Second highest 63% 3% -25% -7% 0% 22% 39% 62% 16% 35% 55%
Middle 57% 3% -16% -5% 0% 28% 45% 72% 24% 42% 64%
Second lowest 50% 3% -13% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 33% 50% 78%
Lowest 40% 4% -12% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 48% 63% 92%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 56% 7% -66% -10% 0% 24% 47% 83% 7% 41% 72%
Sex
Female 58% 7% -79% -11% 0% 28% 52% 90% 6% 45% 83%
Male 55% 7% -57% -8% 0% 22% 43% 72% 9% 37% 63%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 49% 9% -32% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 21% 45% 80%
White, non-Hispanic 59% 7% -82% -12% 0% 23% 45% 80% 5% 38% 69%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 49% 5% -39% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 17% 48% 75%
All other races, non-Hispanic 70% 7% -100% -16% 0% 24% 45% 85% 0% 35% 70%
Country of birth
United States 56% 7% -64% -9% 0% 24% 46% 80% 8% 40% 70%
Other countries 59% 7% -86% -13% 0% 27% 53% 90% 4% 46% 85%
Highest education level
Graduate 72% 6% -100% -17% 0% 22% 42% 77% 0% 29% 62%
Bachelor 69% 7% -100% -16% 0% 21% 42% 81% 0% 32% 65%
Associate 53% 7% -36% -3% 0% 25% 46% 77% 20% 42% 69%
High school 47% 8% -27% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 23% 47% 80%
Less than high school 44% 9% -22% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 28% 51% 87%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 71% 9% -100% -16% 0% 16% 31% 46% 0% 22% 36%
Second highest 63% 6% -73% -14% 0% 24% 39% 57% 8% 32% 46%
Middle 57% 5% -42% -11% 0% 31% 45% 65% 20% 39% 53%
Second lowest 49% 8% -30% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 33% 51% 67%
Lowest 41% 9% -25% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 55% 68% 102%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 76% 8% -100% -17% 0% 15% 34% 48% 0% 21% 36%
Second highest 62% 7% -60% -14% 0% 24% 39% 59% 10% 32% 46%
Middle 57% 5% -40% -10% 0% 31% 45% 67% 20% 39% 53%
Second lowest 48% 8% -28% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 36% 50% 67%
Lowest 40% 10% -22% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 54% 67% 100%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 75% 7% -100% -17% 0% 16% 35% 51% 0% 22% 39%
Second highest 63% 8% -65% -14% 0% 23% 40% 63% 9% 32% 51%
Middle 56% 6% -39% -9% 0% 29% 45% 72% 21% 40% 60%
Second lowest 47% 8% -27% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 32% 49% 73%
Lowest 41% 7% -21% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 47% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 54% 16% -93% -8% 2% 23% 47% 84% 3% 39% 70%
Sex
Female 56% 15% -100% -10% 2% 28% 53% 90% 0% 42% 81%
Male 53% 16% -84% -4% 2% 22% 43% 72% 4% 36% 63%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 47% 18% -48% 0% 2% 26% 50% 88% 17% 44% 77%
White, non-Hispanic 57% 15% -100% -12% 2% 22% 45% 81% 0% 36% 67%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 48% 13% -57% 0% 1% 27% 52% 84% 13% 44% 72%
All other races, non-Hispanic 69% 14% -100% -23% 1% 22% 43% 83% 0% 31% 63%
Country of birth
United States 53% 16% -87% -6% 2% 23% 46% 80% 4% 38% 68%
Other countries 57% 16% -100% -14% 2% 26% 52% 90% 0% 42% 78%
Highest education level
Graduate 70% 13% -100% -26% 1% 21% 42% 79% 0% 27% 60%
Bachelor 65% 17% -100% -23% 2% 21% 42% 82% 0% 29% 63%
Associate 50% 15% -46% 0% 2% 23% 46% 76% 17% 40% 65%
High school 46% 16% -38% 0% 2% 27% 50% 89% 22% 45% 78%
Less than high school 42% 19% -33% 0% 2% 31% 56% 90% 25% 51% 88%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 68% 21% -100% -23% 2% 15% 31% 46% 0% 22% 33%
Second highest 61% 11% -93% -20% 1% 23% 39% 56% 3% 31% 43%
Middle 55% 13% -57% -9% 1% 31% 45% 65% 16% 38% 50%
Second lowest 46% 20% -37% 0% 2% 40% 55% 82% 32% 50% 65%
Lowest 41% 13% -35% 0% 2% 57% 75% 133% 53% 65% 103%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 71% 19% -100% -25% 2% 15% 33% 47% 0% 21% 33%
Second highest 61% 11% -87% -20% 1% 22% 38% 58% 5% 31% 43%
Middle 54% 12% -56% -7% 1% 31% 45% 66% 17% 37% 51%
Second lowest 45% 20% -38% 0% 2% 38% 54% 84% 34% 49% 64%
Lowest 39% 15% -30% 0% 2% 56% 74% 124% 54% 65% 101%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 70% 18% -100% -24% 2% 16% 35% 50% 0% 21% 35%
Second highest 61% 15% -87% -19% 1% 22% 40% 62% 3% 31% 47%
Middle 54% 14% -57% -8% 1% 27% 45% 72% 14% 37% 56%
Second lowest 45% 18% -38% 0% 2% 35% 53% 85% 31% 48% 70%
Lowest 40% 13% -30% 0% 2% 51% 67% 108% 47% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v1 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision C2.2.