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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Increase the Full Retirement Age (FRA) to 68

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 25% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Sex
Female 59% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Male 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 67% 0% -6% -3% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 62% 0% -6% -2% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Country of birth
United States 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Other countries 66% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Age
60–69 75% 0% -6% -5% 0%
70–79 80% 0% -5% -3% 0%
80–89 49% 0% -2% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 71% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Divorced 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Widowed 35% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Never married 72% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 66% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Bachelor 65% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Associate 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
High school 60% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Less than high school 66% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
In poverty 66% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second highest 68% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Middle 64% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Second lowest 59% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Lowest 57% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 74% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 24% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 69% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 75% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Sex
Female 74% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Male 77% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 74% 0% -7% -6% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 76% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 69% 0% -7% -5% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 78% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Country of birth
United States 76% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Other countries 74% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Age
60–69 73% 0% -7% -6% 0%
70–79 75% 0% -7% -6% 0%
80–89 77% 0% -6% -5% 0%
90 or older 79% 0% -5% -3% 0%
Marital status
Married 79% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Divorced 75% 0% -7% -4% 0%
Widowed 63% 0% -6% -2% 0%
Never married 78% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 76% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Bachelor 78% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Associate 77% 0% -7% -5% 0%
High school 72% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Less than high school 73% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 75% 0% -7% -5% 0%
In poverty 77% 0% -6% -6% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 77% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Second highest 80% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Middle 77% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Second lowest 72% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Lowest 70% 0% -7% -5% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 83% 0% -7% -6% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 52% 1% -5% -1% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 77% 0% -8% -6% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 42% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 39% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Male 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 49% 0% -3% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 40% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 45% 0% -3% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 39% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 41% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Other countries 44% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 60% 0% -4% -1% 0%
70–79 56% 0% -3% -1% 0%
80–89 17% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 49% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Divorced 41% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Widowed 18% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Never married 50% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 33% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Bachelor 37% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Associate 46% 0% -3% 0% 0%
High school 44% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Less than high school 53% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 41% 0% -2% 0% 0%
In poverty 58% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 14% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 38% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 50% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 54% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Lowest 54% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 48% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 50% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Sex
Female 62% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Male 64% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 66% 0% -5% -1% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 60% 0% -6% -1% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 59% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Country of birth
United States 64% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Other countries 61% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Age
60–69 62% 0% -6% -1% 0%
70–79 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
80–89 66% 0% -5% -1% 0%
90 or older 54% 0% -3% -1% 0%
Marital status
Married 71% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Divorced 58% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widowed 47% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Never married 62% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 57% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Bachelor 61% 0% -4% -1% 0%
Associate 67% 0% -5% -1% 0%
High school 65% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Less than high school 65% 0% -6% -1% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 63% 0% -5% -1% 0%
In poverty 71% 0% -6% -4% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 65% 0% -2% -1% 0%
Middle 75% 0% -4% -2% 0%
Second lowest 75% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Lowest 70% 0% -6% -3% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 70% 0% -5% -1% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 37% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 73% 0% -5% -2% 0%
Disabled worker only 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,481 15 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,968 9 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,512 5 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 672 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,955 11 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 581 3 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,498 12 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 982 2 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,671 15 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,346 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 647 1 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,178 2 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 820 7 0%
Never married 16% 16% 832 836 4 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 702 7 1%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,600 7 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 766 1 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,368 12 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 666 2 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 189 0 0%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 4,025 242 6%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,240 140 6%
Male 4% 5% 1,683 1,785 102 6%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,122 63 6%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 1,741 1,851 109 6%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 8% 657 700 43 6%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 352 26 8%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,693 182 7%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,332 60 4%
Age
60–69 6% 7% 1,402 1,517 115 8%
70–79 4% 5% 1,337 1,429 92 6%
80–89 4% 4% 873 908 35 4%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 766 54 7%
Divorced 7% 7% 1,070 1,153 83 7%
Widowed 5% 6% 817 858 41 5%
Never married 12% 13% 1,183 1,248 64 5%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 2% 169 179 9 5%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 368 24 7%
Associate 3% 4% 630 706 75 12%
High school 6% 7% 1,694 1,791 97 5%
Less than high school 12% 13% 944 980 35 3%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 243 242 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,782 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 3,041 201 7%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 528 19 3%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 4% 218 238 20 9%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 217 1 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 3,207 384 13%
Sex
Female 3% 4% 1,527 1,692 165 10%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,515 219 16%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 5% 963 1,078 115 11%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 1,289 164 14%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 481 55 13%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 309 358 49 16%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,770 2,050 280 15%
Other countries 5% 6% 1,052 1,157 104 9%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 1,076 130 13%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,212 154 14%
80–89 3% 3% 628 709 80 12%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 211 18 9%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 543 73 15%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 787 100 14%
Widowed 3% 4% 486 541 54 11%
Never married 7% 8% 1,179 1,336 156 13%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 192 35 22%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 252 36 16%
Associate 2% 3% 460 523 62 13%
High school 4% 5% 1,229 1,407 177 14%
Less than high school 8% 9% 761 833 71 9%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 388 387 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,819 -3 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 4% 2,197 2,550 352 16%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 329 15 4%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 156 172 16 10%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 144% 448%
Sex
Female 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 181% 643%
Male 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 118% 264%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 160% 569%
White, non-Hispanic 28% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 140% 404%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 148% 473%
All other races, non-Hispanic 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 145% 505%
Country of birth
United States 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 140% 415%
Other countries 30% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 162% 597%
Highest education level
Graduate 36% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 23% 124% 263%
Bachelor 34% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 22% 136% 359%
Associate 27% 0% -1% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 145% 393%
High school 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 152% 518%
Less than high school 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 160% 803%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 48% 0% -2% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 39% 107% 156%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 133% 200%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 159% 269%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 22% 227% 504%
Lowest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 252% 1,561%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 46% 0% -2% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 46% 108% 151%
Second highest 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 135% 201%
Middle 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 160% 266%
Second lowest 21% 0% -1% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 217% 450%
Lowest 13% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 306% 1,581%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 46% 0% -1% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 55% 115% 193%
Second highest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 36% 138% 269%
Middle 24% 0% -1% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 159% 362%
Second lowest 23% 0% -1% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 184% 514%
Lowest 15% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 204% 1,138%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 68% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 129% 404% 0% 122% 394%
Sex
Female 69% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 148% 557%
Male 67% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 105% 266%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 61% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 126% 440%
White, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -7% -5% 0% 11% 130% 403% 10% 123% 393%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 60% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 123% 347%
All other races, non-Hispanic 65% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 98% 367%
Country of birth
United States 71% 0% -7% -5% 0% 6% 130% 369% 6% 123% 358%
Other countries 58% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 118% 583%
Highest education level
Graduate 81% 0% -7% -5% 0% 17% 113% 278% 16% 106% 271%
Bachelor 77% 0% -7% -5% 0% 5% 117% 311% 5% 111% 302%
Associate 69% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 126% 343%
High school 62% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 136% 524%
Less than high school 55% 0% -6% -5% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 126% 616%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 92% 0% -7% -6% -3% 40% 96% 138% 37% 90% 130%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -5% 0% 31% 128% 192% 30% 121% 185%
Middle 71% 0% -6% -5% 0% 26% 157% 271% 25% 149% 265%
Second lowest 62% 0% -6% -5% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 209% 559%
Lowest 34% 0% -6% -2% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 116% 2,017%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 93% 0% -7% -6% -3% 42% 96% 137% 39% 91% 130%
Second highest 82% 0% -7% -5% 0% 39% 129% 194% 37% 122% 187%
Middle 71% 0% -6% -5% 0% 24% 159% 274% 23% 151% 267%
Second lowest 62% 0% -6% -4% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 205% 495%
Lowest 33% 0% -6% -2% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 90% 2,141%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 93% 0% -7% -6% -2% 46% 99% 163% 43% 93% 155%
Second highest 83% 0% -7% -5% 0% 44% 131% 267% 41% 124% 258%
Middle 73% 0% -7% -5% 0% 35% 158% 359% 34% 149% 350%
Second lowest 61% 0% -6% -5% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 181% 566%
Lowest 31% 0% -6% -3% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 35% 1,035%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 69% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 113% 349%
Sex
Female 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 5% 145% 519% 5% 137% 507%
Male 67% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 96% 240%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 63% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 118% 393%
White, non-Hispanic 74% 0% -7% -6% 0% 17% 120% 343% 16% 113% 331%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 57% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 112% 332%
All other races, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 105% 349% 0% 99% 329%
Country of birth
United States 71% 0% -7% -6% 0% 9% 120% 319% 8% 113% 311%
Other countries 61% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 114% 551%
Highest education level
Graduate 83% 0% -7% -6% 0% 21% 109% 259% 20% 102% 249%
Bachelor 79% 0% -7% -6% 0% 13% 110% 278% 11% 103% 264%
Associate 68% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 124% 318% 0% 116% 311%
High school 62% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 123% 434%
Less than high school 57% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 118% 591%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -7% -6% -3% 40% 88% 127% 36% 83% 120%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -6% 0% 34% 118% 177% 31% 111% 171%
Middle 71% 0% -7% -6% 0% 30% 144% 246% 28% 136% 242%
Second lowest 63% 0% -7% -5% 0% 9% 196% 466% 8% 186% 458%
Lowest 36% 0% -7% -2% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 118% 1,711%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 94% 0% -8% -6% -3% 43% 89% 127% 39% 83% 120%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -6% 0% 38% 119% 179% 35% 112% 172%
Middle 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 27% 144% 249% 26% 136% 244%
Second lowest 63% 0% -7% -5% 0% 13% 192% 442% 12% 181% 434%
Lowest 35% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 117% 1,738%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -7% -6% -3% 45% 91% 145% 42% 85% 139%
Second highest 83% 0% -7% -6% 0% 46% 122% 227% 43% 115% 220%
Middle 72% 0% -7% -6% 0% 31% 140% 302% 30% 132% 297%
Second lowest 61% 0% -7% -5% 0% 11% 172% 532% 10% 163% 521%
Lowest 34% 0% -7% -4% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 76% 981%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 68% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 118% 359%
Sex
Female 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 1% 149% 531% 1% 141% 518%
Male 67% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 101% 245%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 64% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 122% 393%
White, non-Hispanic 73% 0% -7% -6% 0% 21% 126% 363% 19% 118% 352%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 59% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 115% 302%
All other races, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 113% 335% 0% 106% 318%
Country of birth
United States 71% 0% -7% -6% 0% 11% 125% 324% 10% 118% 317%
Other countries 61% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 115% 504%
Highest education level
Graduate 81% 0% -7% -6% 0% 30% 116% 286% 27% 109% 273%
Bachelor 79% 0% -7% -6% 0% 9% 115% 300% 8% 108% 285%
Associate 66% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 129% 325% 0% 122% 317%
High school 62% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 125% 432%
Less than high school 58% 0% -7% -6% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 122% 556%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 93% 0% -8% -6% -3% 45% 95% 133% 42% 89% 126%
Second highest 82% 0% -7% -6% 0% 43% 124% 181% 40% 116% 173%
Middle 69% 0% -7% -6% 0% 23% 149% 251% 22% 140% 245%
Second lowest 62% 0% -7% -5% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 198% 491%
Lowest 36% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 118% 1,509%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 93% 0% -8% -6% -3% 46% 95% 133% 42% 89% 126%
Second highest 81% 0% -7% -6% 0% 44% 123% 182% 41% 116% 175%
Middle 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 30% 149% 254% 29% 140% 248%
Second lowest 62% 0% -7% -5% 0% 2% 202% 466% 2% 191% 457%
Lowest 36% 0% -7% -3% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 118% 1,564%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 93% 0% -8% -6% -3% 50% 98% 152% 47% 92% 146%
Second highest 83% 0% -7% -6% 0% 46% 125% 235% 43% 117% 228%
Middle 71% 0% -7% -6% 0% 36% 146% 316% 34% 138% 309%
Second lowest 62% 0% -7% -5% 0% 8% 183% 543% 8% 173% 532%
Lowest 34% 0% -7% -4% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 67% 788%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 37% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 23% 46% 80%
Sex
Female 35% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 51% 90%
Male 39% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 41% 65%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 41% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 85%
White, non-Hispanic 37% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 22% 44% 76%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 89%
Country of birth
United States 36% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 41% 0% -1% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 44% 0% -2% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 41% 72%
Bachelor 43% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 21% 42% 75%
Associate 36% 0% -1% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 23% 45% 75%
High school 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 82%
Less than high school 34% 0% -1% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 56% 0% -2% -1% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 30% 47%
Second highest 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 55%
Middle 35% 0% -1% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 27% 43% 64%
Second lowest 29% 0% -1% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 79%
Lowest 25% 0% -1% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 69% 119%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 54% 0% -2% -1% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 33% 50%
Second highest 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 34% 0% -1% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 65%
Second lowest 31% 0% -1% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 80%
Lowest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 68% 111%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 55% 0% -2% -1% 0% 17% 36% 54% 16% 36% 53%
Second highest 40% 0% -1% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 37% 63%
Middle 33% 0% -1% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 70%
Second lowest 32% 0% -1% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 32% 49% 85%
Lowest 26% 0% -1% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 44% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 80% 0% -15% -6% 0% 24% 47% 82% 17% 43% 78%
Sex
Female 80% 0% -16% -6% 0% 27% 52% 90% 20% 48% 87%
Male 81% 0% -15% -6% 0% 22% 43% 71% 16% 39% 68%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 79% 0% -7% -6% 0% 28% 52% 90% 23% 49% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 82% 0% -19% -6% 0% 23% 45% 78% 15% 41% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 72% 0% -7% -5% 0% 26% 51% 85% 22% 49% 80%
All other races, non-Hispanic 88% 0% -37% -6% 0% 22% 45% 81% 10% 41% 75%
Country of birth
United States 80% 0% -16% -6% 0% 23% 46% 78% 17% 42% 74%
Other countries 82% 0% -7% -6% 0% 26% 53% 90% 20% 50% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -100% -6% 0% 21% 41% 74% 0% 34% 67%
Bachelor 88% 0% -29% -6% 0% 21% 42% 79% 10% 37% 73%
Associate 78% 0% -7% -6% 0% 24% 46% 74% 21% 43% 71%
High school 74% 0% -7% -5% 0% 28% 50% 87% 24% 48% 83%
Less than high school 76% 0% -7% -5% 0% 31% 56% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -92% -6% -5% 15% 31% 46% 2% 24% 41%
Second highest 86% 0% -20% -6% 0% 23% 38% 56% 17% 34% 50%
Middle 80% 0% -7% -6% 0% 30% 45% 65% 25% 42% 59%
Second lowest 72% 0% -7% -5% 0% 40% 55% 82% 37% 52% 74%
Lowest 68% 0% -6% -5% 0% 56% 73% 124% 54% 70% 115%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -100% -6% -5% 15% 33% 49% 0% 24% 43%
Second highest 87% 0% -19% -6% 0% 22% 37% 58% 18% 34% 52%
Middle 80% 0% -7% -6% 0% 30% 45% 67% 25% 42% 61%
Second lowest 71% 0% -7% -5% 0% 38% 54% 82% 36% 52% 75%
Lowest 68% 0% -6% -5% 0% 55% 71% 116% 53% 69% 109%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 95% 0% -100% -6% -5% 16% 35% 51% 0% 25% 45%
Second highest 87% 0% -21% -6% 0% 22% 39% 62% 16% 35% 56%
Middle 80% 0% -7% -6% 0% 28% 45% 72% 24% 43% 66%
Second lowest 73% 0% -7% -5% 0% 35% 52% 85% 32% 51% 80%
Lowest 65% 0% -6% -5% 0% 50% 66% 102% 47% 63% 96%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -45% -6% 0% 24% 47% 83% 11% 42% 78%
Sex
Female 79% 0% -54% -6% 0% 28% 52% 90% 9% 47% 88%
Male 79% 0% -30% -6% 0% 22% 43% 72% 12% 39% 67%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 76% 0% -14% -6% 0% 27% 50% 89% 21% 47% 84%
White, non-Hispanic 81% 0% -53% -6% 0% 23% 45% 80% 8% 39% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 67% 0% -22% -6% 0% 29% 53% 84% 19% 49% 80%
All other races, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -100% -6% 0% 24% 45% 85% 0% 38% 76%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -38% -6% 0% 24% 46% 80% 11% 42% 75%
Other countries 81% 0% -61% -6% 0% 27% 53% 90% 8% 48% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 89% 0% -100% -6% 0% 22% 42% 77% 0% 30% 67%
Bachelor 87% 0% -100% -6% 0% 21% 42% 81% 0% 34% 72%
Associate 76% 0% -20% -6% 0% 25% 46% 77% 21% 43% 73%
High school 72% 0% -7% -6% 0% 28% 51% 87% 23% 48% 84%
Less than high school 75% 0% -7% -6% 0% 31% 55% 90% 28% 52% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -7% -6% 16% 31% 46% 0% 21% 39%
Second highest 86% 0% -53% -6% 0% 24% 39% 57% 10% 31% 49%
Middle 78% 0% -22% -6% 0% 31% 45% 65% 23% 41% 58%
Second lowest 71% 0% -7% -6% 0% 40% 54% 81% 35% 52% 72%
Lowest 66% 0% -7% -6% 0% 57% 74% 125% 54% 71% 113%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 96% 0% -100% -7% -6% 15% 34% 48% 0% 21% 40%
Second highest 86% 0% -51% -6% 0% 24% 39% 59% 12% 31% 50%
Middle 77% 0% -20% -6% 0% 31% 45% 67% 23% 42% 59%
Second lowest 71% 0% -7% -6% 0% 39% 53% 81% 35% 51% 72%
Lowest 66% 0% -7% -6% 0% 56% 73% 118% 53% 70% 109%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 95% 0% -100% -7% -6% 16% 35% 51% 0% 21% 43%
Second highest 87% 0% -53% -6% 0% 23% 40% 63% 11% 33% 56%
Middle 79% 0% -20% -6% 0% 29% 45% 72% 22% 42% 65%
Second lowest 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 35% 52% 86% 32% 50% 79%
Lowest 65% 0% -7% -6% 0% 50% 67% 104% 47% 65% 96%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 79% 0% -45% -6% 0% 23% 47% 84% 10% 42% 78%
Sex
Female 78% 0% -61% -6% 0% 28% 53% 90% 8% 46% 89%
Male 80% 0% -30% -6% 0% 22% 43% 72% 11% 38% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 76% 0% -17% -6% 0% 26% 50% 88% 19% 46% 83%
White, non-Hispanic 80% 0% -61% -6% 0% 22% 45% 81% 7% 39% 74%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 70% 0% -22% -6% 0% 27% 52% 84% 17% 48% 80%
All other races, non-Hispanic 89% 0% -100% -6% 0% 22% 43% 83% 0% 36% 74%
Country of birth
United States 78% 0% -38% -6% 0% 23% 46% 80% 10% 41% 75%
Other countries 81% 0% -68% -6% 0% 26% 52% 90% 8% 46% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 88% 0% -100% -6% 0% 21% 42% 79% 0% 31% 68%
Bachelor 88% 0% -92% -6% 0% 21% 42% 82% 2% 33% 73%
Associate 75% 0% -19% -6% 0% 23% 46% 76% 19% 43% 72%
High school 73% 0% -7% -6% 0% 27% 50% 89% 22% 47% 84%
Less than high school 76% 0% -7% -6% 0% 31% 56% 90% 28% 53% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -7% -6% 15% 31% 46% 0% 21% 39%
Second highest 86% 0% -61% -6% 0% 23% 39% 56% 10% 31% 48%
Middle 78% 0% -22% -6% 0% 31% 45% 65% 22% 41% 56%
Second lowest 69% 0% -7% -6% 0% 40% 55% 82% 34% 52% 74%
Lowest 67% 0% -7% -6% 0% 57% 75% 133% 54% 71% 120%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 95% 0% -100% -7% -6% 15% 33% 47% 0% 21% 40%
Second highest 86% 0% -53% -6% 0% 22% 38% 58% 10% 31% 48%
Middle 77% 0% -20% -6% 0% 31% 45% 66% 23% 41% 57%
Second lowest 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 38% 54% 84% 35% 52% 74%
Lowest 68% 0% -7% -6% 0% 56% 74% 124% 54% 71% 115%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 94% 0% -100% -7% -6% 16% 35% 50% 0% 21% 42%
Second highest 86% 0% -53% -6% 0% 22% 40% 62% 10% 32% 55%
Middle 79% 0% -25% -6% 0% 27% 45% 72% 18% 41% 63%
Second lowest 70% 0% -7% -6% 0% 35% 53% 85% 32% 50% 78%
Lowest 65% 0% -7% -6% 0% 51% 67% 108% 48% 65% 99%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: NRA OACT1001v3 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision C1.1.