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Projected Effects of a Proposal to Reduce Spousal Benefits

Details: From 50% to 33% of the worker's primary insurance amount (PIA)

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Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 20% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 11% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Male 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 10% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 13% 0% -14% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 12% 0% -9% 0% 0%
Divorced 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 12% 0% -13% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 88% 0% -33% -19% 0%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Benefits in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in
Social Security benefits at the—
Benefit decrease Benefit
increase		 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 10% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Male 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 14% 0% -33% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 14% 0% -22% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 12% 0% -21% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 97% 0% -34% -33% -5%
Disabled worker only 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Social Security Taxes Paid in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law payroll taxpayers aged 31 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in Social Security taxes paid at the— Change in taxes paid
(in 2024$) at the—
Tax decrease Tax increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Sex
Female 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Male 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
White, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
All other races, non-Hispanic 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Country of birth
United States 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Other countries 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Age
31–39 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
40–49 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
50–59 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
60–69 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
70 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Marital status
Married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Divorced 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Bachelor 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Associate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
High school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Less than high school 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Current-law payroll taxes quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Second lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
Lowest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% $0 $0 $0
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
70–79 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
80–89 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Less than high school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
In poverty 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lowest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Disabled worker only 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Male 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 16% 0% -3% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 6% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 17% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other countries 18% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 12% 0% -2% 0% 0%
70–79 15% 0% -2% 0% 0%
80–89 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
90 or older 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 20% 0% -3% 0% 0%
Divorced 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bachelor 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Associate 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
High school 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Less than high school 19% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
In poverty 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Second highest 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Middle 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Second lowest 12% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Lowest 10% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 63% 0% -8% -1% 0%
Disabled worker only 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Household Income in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with an—		 Percent change in
household income at the—
Income decrease Income increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Sex
Female 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Male 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 15% 0% -3% 0% 0%
White, non-Hispanic 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 21% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Country of birth
United States 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Other countries 21% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Age
60–69 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
70–79 16% 0% -3% 0% 0%
80–89 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
90 or older 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marital status
Married 27% 0% -6% 0% 0%
Divorced 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widowed 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Never married 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 12% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Bachelor 13% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Associate 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
High school 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Less than high school 18% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 13% 0% -2% 0% 0%
In poverty 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law household income quintile
Highest 11% 0% -1% 0% 0%
Second highest 14% 0% -2% 0% 0%
Middle 15% 0% -4% 0% 0%
Second lowest 14% 0% -5% 0% 0%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 77% 0% -9% -3% 0%
Disabled worker only 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
%ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2030 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,465 3,471 6 0%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 1,958 1,965 6 0%
Male 5% 5% 1,507 1,507 0 0%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 8% 672 672 0 0%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 4% 1,943 1,949 6 0%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 8% 8% 577 577 0 0%
All other races, non-Hispanic 7% 7% 273 273 0 0%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,486 2,490 4 0%
Other countries 9% 9% 979 982 2 0%
Age
60–69 7% 7% 1,655 1,662 6 0%
70–79 4% 4% 1,346 1,346 0 0%
80–89 3% 3% 417 417 0 0%
90 or older 2% 2% 46 46 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 646 648 2 0%
Divorced 9% 9% 1,175 1,179 4 0%
Widowed 6% 6% 813 813 0 0%
Never married 16% 16% 832 832 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 91 91 0 0%
Bachelor 2% 2% 322 322 0 0%
Associate 4% 4% 694 694 0 0%
High school 6% 6% 1,593 1,599 6 0%
Less than high school 13% 13% 765 765 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,355 2,355 0 0%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 6% 6% 664 664 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 189 196 6 3%
Disabled worker only 9% 9% 257 257 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2050 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 5% 5% 3,782 3,946 164 4%
Sex
Female 5% 5% 2,099 2,199 99 4%
Male 4% 5% 1,683 1,747 64 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 7% 7% 1,058 1,124 65 6%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 3% 1,741 1,799 57 3%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 7% 8% 657 677 19 3%
All other races, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 326 347 21 6%
Country of birth
United States 4% 4% 2,511 2,605 93 3%
Other countries 7% 7% 1,271 1,342 70 5%
Age
60–69 6% 6% 1,402 1,447 44 3%
70–79 4% 5% 1,337 1,428 91 6%
80–89 4% 4% 873 901 28 3%
90 or older 2% 2% 170 170 0 0%
Marital status
Married 2% 2% 711 815 104 14%
Divorced 7% 7% 1,070 1,121 51 4%
Widowed 5% 5% 817 826 9 1%
Never married 12% 12% 1,183 1,183 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 2% 169 181 11 6%
Bachelor 2% 2% 344 351 7 2%
Associate 3% 4% 630 679 49 7%
High school 6% 7% 1,694 1,747 52 3%
Less than high school 12% 13% 944 988 43 4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 164 164 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 3,782 3,782 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 5% 5% 2,839 2,902 62 2%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 4% 4% 508 508 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 3% 5% 218 320 101 46%
Disabled worker only 7% 7% 216 216 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Official Poverty Measure in 2070 POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries aged 60 or older (characteristics)
Characteristic Official poverty rate Number of population in poverty
(in thousands)		 Percent change in the number in poverty
Under current law With proposal Under current law With proposal Change
Total 3% 3% 2,822 2,935 113 4%
Sex
Female 3% 3% 1,527 1,591 64 4%
Male 3% 3% 1,296 1,344 48 3%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 5% 963 1,001 38 3%
White, non-Hispanic 2% 2% 1,125 1,172 46 4%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 5% 426 438 12 2%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 4% 309 324 15 5%
Country of birth
United States 2% 3% 1,770 1,831 61 3%
Other countries 5% 6% 1,052 1,104 51 4%
Age
60–69 4% 4% 945 972 27 2%
70–79 3% 3% 1,057 1,102 44 4%
80–89 3% 3% 628 658 29 4%
90 or older 2% 2% 192 204 12 6%
Marital status
Married 1% 1% 470 574 103 22%
Divorced 4% 4% 687 696 9 1%
Widowed 3% 3% 486 486 0 0%
Never married 7% 7% 1,179 1,179 0 0%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 1% 156 162 5 3%
Bachelor 1% 1% 216 229 12 5%
Associate 2% 2% 460 467 7 1%
High school 4% 5% 1,229 1,284 55 4%
Less than high school 8% 8% 761 793 31 4%
Current-law poverty status
Above poverty 0% 0% 0 113 113 . . .
In poverty 100% 100% 2,822 2,822 0 0%
Current-law benefit type
Retired worker only 3% 3% 2,197 2,269 71 3%
Widow(er) (includes dually entitled) 3% 3% 314 314 0 0%
Spousal (includes dually entitled) 2% 3% 156 197 41 26%
Disabled worker only 4% 4% 156 156 0 0%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
. . . = not applicable.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1960–1969 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 145% 450% 6% 145% 445%
Sex
Female 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 26% 182% 644% 26% 182% 637%
Male 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 119% 266% 0% 119% 265%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 162% 569% 0% 162% 566%
White, non-Hispanic 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 140% 406% 15% 140% 400%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 149% 473% 0% 149% 472%
All other races, non-Hispanic 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 146% 508% 0% 146% 499%
Country of birth
United States 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 141% 416% 12% 141% 409%
Other countries 9% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 164% 599% 0% 164% 594%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 125% 264% 23% 125% 261%
Bachelor 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 137% 362% 22% 137% 357%
Associate 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 12% 146% 393% 12% 146% 392%
High school 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 153% 519% 0% 153% 514%
Less than high school 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 161% 803% 0% 161% 795%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 108% 157% 39% 108% 157%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 134% 201% 24% 134% 201%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14% 160% 270% 14% 160% 269%
Second lowest 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 23% 228% 504% 23% 227% 498%
Lowest 16% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 254% 1,561% 0% 249% 1,532%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 47% 108% 152% 47% 108% 152%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 136% 202% 25% 136% 202%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 161% 267% 15% 161% 266%
Second lowest 9% 0% -1% 0% 0% 18% 218% 454% 18% 218% 447%
Lowest 17% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 308% 1,585% 0% 304% 1,560%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 115% 194% 56% 115% 194%
Second highest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% 139% 269% 36% 139% 269%
Middle 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% 160% 363% 19% 160% 360%
Second lowest 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 185% 516% 6% 185% 514%
Lowest 8% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 205% 1,138% 0% 205% 1,133%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 1980–1989 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 9% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 129% 404% 0% 129% 383%
Sex
Female 14% 0% -8% 0% 0% 0% 156% 570% 0% 155% 523%
Male 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 110% 275% 0% 110% 273%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 11% 0% -6% 0% 0% 0% 133% 447% 0% 133% 420%
White, non-Hispanic 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% 130% 403% 11% 130% 385%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 130% 355% 0% 130% 345%
All other races, non-Hispanic 10% 0% -7% 0% 0% 0% 104% 383% 0% 103% 358%
Country of birth
United States 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 130% 369% 6% 130% 351%
Other countries 14% 0% -16% 0% 0% 0% 125% 602% 0% 124% 542%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 113% 278% 17% 113% 276%
Bachelor 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 117% 311% 5% 117% 304%
Associate 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 133% 348% 0% 133% 339%
High school 10% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 143% 533% 0% 143% 500%
Less than high school 13% 0% -11% 0% 0% 0% 133% 627% 0% 132% 558%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 96% 138% 40% 96% 138%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 128% 192% 31% 128% 192%
Middle 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 157% 271% 25% 157% 268%
Second lowest 15% 0% -7% 0% 0% 0% 220% 568% 0% 217% 543%
Lowest 25% 0% -33% 0% 0% 0% 121% 2,087% 0% 116% 1,861%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 42% 96% 137% 42% 96% 137%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 129% 194% 39% 129% 194%
Middle 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 159% 274% 24% 158% 273%
Second lowest 14% 0% -5% 0% 0% 0% 215% 505% 0% 213% 477%
Lowest 25% 0% -33% 0% 0% 0% 95% 2,194% 0% 84% 1,956%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 99% 163% 46% 99% 162%
Second highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 44% 131% 267% 43% 131% 255%
Middle 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 35% 158% 359% 35% 157% 346%
Second lowest 12% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 188% 575% 0% 187% 546%
Lowest 12% 0% -18% 0% 0% 0% 38% 1,049% 0% 34% 985%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2000–2009 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 9% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 120% 357% 0% 119% 341%
Sex
Female 14% 0% -6% 0% 0% 5% 145% 519% 5% 143% 475%
Male 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 103% 246% 0% 102% 243%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 11% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 125% 401% 0% 125% 382%
White, non-Hispanic 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 120% 343% 17% 119% 325%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 118% 333% 0% 118% 325%
All other races, non-Hispanic 9% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 105% 349% 0% 105% 325%
Country of birth
United States 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 120% 319% 9% 119% 307%
Other countries 14% 0% -13% 0% 0% 0% 121% 565% 0% 120% 503%
Highest education level
Graduate 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 109% 259% 21% 109% 253%
Bachelor 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 13% 110% 278% 13% 110% 269%
Associate 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 124% 318% 0% 123% 309%
High school 10% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 129% 441% 0% 129% 422%
Less than high school 13% 0% -10% 0% 0% 0% 125% 594% 0% 124% 547%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 88% 127% 39% 88% 127%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 34% 118% 177% 34% 118% 177%
Middle 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 144% 246% 30% 143% 244%
Second lowest 13% 0% -5% 0% 0% 9% 196% 466% 8% 193% 452%
Lowest 24% 0% -33% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,729% 0% 118% 1,547%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 43% 89% 127% 43% 89% 127%
Second highest 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 119% 179% 38% 119% 179%
Middle 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 144% 249% 27% 143% 246%
Second lowest 13% 0% -4% 0% 0% 13% 192% 442% 12% 189% 430%
Lowest 25% 0% -33% 0% 0% 0% 125% 1,771% 0% 119% 1,600%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% 91% 145% 45% 91% 145%
Second highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 122% 227% 46% 121% 218%
Middle 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 140% 302% 31% 139% 292%
Second lowest 13% 0% -4% 0% 0% 11% 172% 532% 10% 171% 503%
Lowest 12% 0% -20% 0% 0% 0% 80% 996% 0% 77% 941%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Benefit/Tax Ratios POPULATION: Workers born 2020–2029 with a benefit/tax ratio (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in benefit/tax ratio at the— Benefit/tax ratio under current law at the— Benefit/tax ratio
with proposal
at the—
Ratio decrease Ratio increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 9% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 125% 366% 0% 124% 349%
Sex
Female 15% 0% -7% 0% 0% 1% 149% 531% 1% 148% 484%
Male 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 107% 252% 0% 107% 250%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 10% 0% -3% 0% 0% 0% 129% 400% 0% 129% 384%
White, non-Hispanic 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 126% 363% 21% 125% 347%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 121% 306% 0% 121% 303%
All other races, non-Hispanic 9% 0% -2% 0% 0% 0% 113% 335% 0% 113% 319%
Country of birth
United States 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% 125% 324% 11% 125% 313%
Other countries 13% 0% -14% 0% 0% 0% 123% 516% 0% 121% 457%
Highest education level
Graduate 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 116% 286% 30% 115% 276%
Bachelor 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% 115% 300% 9% 115% 288%
Associate 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 129% 325% 0% 129% 319%
High school 9% 0% -1% 0% 0% 0% 133% 439% 0% 132% 412%
Less than high school 14% 0% -12% 0% 0% 0% 129% 578% 0% 127% 530%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% 95% 133% 45% 95% 133%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 43% 124% 181% 43% 124% 181%
Middle 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 149% 251% 23% 148% 249%
Second lowest 13% 0% -4% 0% 0% 0% 208% 500% 0% 204% 482%
Lowest 25% 0% -33% 0% 0% 0% 123% 1,555% 0% 117% 1,374%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 95% 133% 46% 95% 133%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 44% 123% 182% 44% 123% 182%
Middle 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 149% 254% 30% 149% 253%
Second lowest 13% 0% -4% 0% 0% 2% 202% 466% 0% 198% 449%
Lowest 25% 0% -33% 0% 0% 0% 124% 1,589% 0% 118% 1,414%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 98% 152% 50% 98% 152%
Second highest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 125% 235% 46% 124% 226%
Middle 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% 146% 316% 36% 145% 306%
Second lowest 12% 0% -4% 0% 0% 8% 183% 543% 8% 182% 509%
Lowest 12% 0% -19% 0% 0% 0% 73% 797% 0% 70% 738%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1960–1969 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 79%
Sex
Female 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 66% 22% 42% 66%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 51% 86% 27% 51% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 75%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 86% 27% 50% 86%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 90% 26% 48% 89%
Country of birth
United States 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 44% 76% 23% 44% 76%
Other countries 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 90% 29% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 72% 21% 42% 72%
Bachelor 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 76% 22% 42% 76%
Associate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 76% 24% 45% 75%
High school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 48% 83% 26% 48% 82%
Less than high school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 32% 57% 90% 32% 57% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 47% 16% 31% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 44% 64% 28% 44% 64%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 51% 79% 38% 51% 78%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 53% 70% 120% 53% 69% 117%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 50% 15% 34% 50%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 57% 22% 37% 57%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 43% 66% 30% 43% 66%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37% 51% 81% 37% 51% 80%
Lowest 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 68% 112% 51% 67% 108%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 17% 36% 54% 17% 36% 54%
Second highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 38% 63% 21% 38% 63%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 43% 70% 27% 43% 70%
Second lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 50% 86% 33% 50% 86%
Lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 45% 63% 90% 45% 63% 90%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 1980–1989 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 82% 23% 47% 80%
Sex
Female 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 90% 27% 52% 89%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 71% 22% 43% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 28% 51% 89%
White, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 78% 22% 45% 77%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 51% 85% 26% 51% 84%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 79%
Country of birth
United States 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 78% 23% 46% 77%
Other countries 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 53% 90% 26% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 41% 74% 20% 41% 74%
Bachelor 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 20% 42% 77%
Associate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 74% 24% 46% 73%
High school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 50% 87% 27% 50% 85%
Less than high school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 56% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 38% 56% 23% 38% 56%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 65% 29% 45% 65%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 40% 54% 81%
Lowest 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 124% 56% 71% 112%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 33% 49% 15% 33% 49%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 37% 58% 22% 37% 58%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 30% 45% 67% 30% 45% 67%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 82% 38% 53% 81%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 55% 71% 116% 54% 69% 105%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 39% 62% 22% 39% 61%
Middle 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 45% 72% 28% 45% 70%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 85% 35% 52% 83%
Lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 66% 102% 49% 65% 99%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2000–2009 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 47% 83% 24% 47% 82%
Sex
Female 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 52% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 72%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 87%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 45% 80% 23% 45% 79%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 53% 84% 29% 53% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 45% 85% 23% 45% 84%
Country of birth
United States 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 46% 80% 24% 46% 79%
Other countries 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 53% 90% 27% 53% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 42% 77% 22% 42% 76%
Bachelor 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 81% 21% 42% 80%
Associate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 46% 77% 25% 46% 76%
High school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 51% 87% 28% 50% 86%
Less than high school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 55% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 57% 24% 39% 57%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 54% 81% 40% 54% 81%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 74% 125% 57% 72% 115%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 34% 48% 15% 34% 48%
Second highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 24% 39% 59% 23% 39% 59%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 67% 31% 45% 67%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 53% 81% 39% 53% 81%
Lowest 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 73% 118% 55% 71% 108%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 51% 16% 35% 51%
Second highest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 40% 63% 22% 40% 62%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 45% 72% 29% 45% 71%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 52% 86% 35% 52% 83%
Lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 67% 104% 50% 67% 101%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.
Projected Effects of Proposal on Initial Replacement Rates POPULATION: Current-law beneficiaries born 2020–2029 with a replacement rate (characteristics)
Characteristic Percent of
population with a—		 Percent change in initial replacement rate at the— Initial replacement rate under current law at the— Initial replacement rate
with proposal
at the—
Rate decrease Rate increase 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile 10th %ile Median 90th %ile
Total 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 47% 84% 23% 47% 82%
Sex
Female 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 53% 90% 27% 52% 90%
Male 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 72% 22% 43% 71%
Race and ethnicity
Hispanic or Latino, any race 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 50% 88% 25% 50% 86%
White, non-Hispanic 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 45% 81% 22% 45% 79%
Black or African American, non-Hispanic 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 52% 84% 27% 52% 83%
All other races, non-Hispanic 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 43% 83% 22% 43% 81%
Country of birth
United States 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 80% 23% 46% 79%
Other countries 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 52% 90% 26% 51% 90%
Highest education level
Graduate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 79% 21% 42% 78%
Bachelor 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 21% 42% 82% 21% 42% 80%
Associate 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 46% 76% 23% 46% 74%
High school 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 50% 89% 27% 50% 86%
Less than high school 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 56% 90% 31% 55% 90%
Current-law initial AIME quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 31% 46% 15% 31% 46%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 23% 39% 56% 23% 39% 56%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 65% 31% 45% 65%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 55% 82% 39% 55% 81%
Lowest 10% 0% -1% 0% 0% 57% 75% 133% 56% 73% 124%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 33% 47% 15% 33% 47%
Second highest 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 38% 58% 22% 38% 58%
Middle 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 31% 45% 66% 31% 45% 66%
Second lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 54% 84% 38% 54% 82%
Lowest 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 56% 74% 124% 56% 72% 117%
Lifetime payroll tax quintile (shared)
Highest 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16% 35% 50% 16% 35% 50%
Second highest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 22% 40% 62% 22% 40% 62%
Middle 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 27% 45% 72% 27% 45% 71%
Second lowest 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 53% 85% 35% 53% 84%
Lowest 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 67% 108% 51% 66% 104%
SOURCE: SSA Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, MINT 8.23. Run ID: SPOUSAL OACT1001v2 02/20/2024
NOTES: Start date = 2024.
AIME = average indexed monthly earnings; %ile = percentile.
Providing these estimates does not imply SSA support for the proposal, nor is SSA responsible for any interpretations of these estimates.

For projected effects on the Social Security trust funds, see the Actuary's provision D2.