Sporadic Low Earners in 2050

Methodology »
Released: May 2024
Next expected update: 2028

DEFINITION: In contrast to a lifetime low earner, a sporadic low earner is a Social Security beneficiary aged 60 or older who:

• is fully insured by age 61;
• has at least 30 years of non-covered earnings or 30 years of covered earnings at less than half the average wage;
• has more than 5 years with zero earnings; and
• was never disabled.

In 2050, we project that:

• Seven percent (5.7 million) of all beneficiaries aged 60 or older will be sporadic low earners.
• Thirty-five percent (2.2 million) of sporadic low earners will have earnings from non-covered work.
• Of all sporadic low earners, more than half (3.2 million) will be native born.
• Almost all immigrant sporadic low earners will arrive in the U.S. before age 50.
• The poverty rate will be much higher for sporadic low earners compared to all beneficiaries aged 60 or older.
• The median benefit for sporadic low earners will be 44 percent lower for women and 59 percent lower for men compared to all beneficiaries aged 60 or older.