Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
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The following is a detailed example of the projection of the number of disabled worker beneficiaries by single-year-of-age. Similar projections are made for the short-range period for each gender and age 15-NRA. The illustration is based on the 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.
Disability insured as a percent of fully insured on January 1: 0.902264
Projected disability insured as a percent of fully insured on December 31: 0.908514
Projected incidence factor 1: 0.98831
Projected death termination factor 1: 0.98855
Projected recovery termination factor1: 0.78480
Projected "all other" termination factor 1: 0.71500
1 Projected incidence and termination factors by single-year-of-age are based on discussion found in section III.A.
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December 26, 2001