Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
||
Year |
65-NRA2
|
|||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male |
||||||||||||
91.90 |
136.14 |
102.99 |
89.65 |
83.82 |
76.36 |
76.54 |
74.54 |
76.90 |
78.78 |
92.64 |
79.76 |
|
107.01 |
89.43 |
84.67 |
81.09 |
96.98 |
104.93 |
100.25 |
92.40 |
83.16 |
70.54 |
69.25 |
83.39 |
|
73.42 |
59.21 |
55.42 |
48.79 |
42.69 |
48.16 |
56.69 |
62.91 |
68.58 |
71.75 |
85.40 |
63.88 |
|
43.52 |
55.65 |
64.98 |
60.52 |
56.48 |
50.07 |
52.62 |
58.00 |
63.16 |
71.59 |
79.56 |
62.17 |
|
66.93 |
50.22 |
60.19 |
58.64 |
55.58 |
50.01 |
51.35 |
56.23 |
61.51 |
71.14 |
78.15 |
60.69 |
|
35.74 |
45.41 |
59.17 |
60.61 |
54.41 |
50.27 |
50.02 |
54.51 |
59.61 |
69.65 |
102.22 |
59.94 |
|
50.94 |
43.68 |
54.01 |
61.10 |
55.47 |
50.74 |
48.59 |
53.54 |
58.57 |
68.40 |
104.76 |
58.91 |
|
72.12 |
48.10 |
56.19 |
67.60 |
58.60 |
53.08 |
49.61 |
53.06 |
56.36 |
65.62 |
100.10 |
58.70 |
|
53.59 |
59.58 |
65.08 |
72.73 |
63.96 |
56.83 |
50.23 |
51.87 |
54.71 |
62.88 |
97.54 |
59.14 |
|
62.88 |
61.81 |
61.99 |
65.86 |
57.91 |
51.15 |
47.83 |
47.95 |
51.32 |
61.87 |
92.62 |
55.44 |
|
67.58 |
70.96 |
78.58 |
79.76 |
78.30 |
74.89 |
68.19 |
58.50 |
54.84 |
60.86 |
97.50 |
65.98 |
|
48.10 |
58.09 |
57.40 |
50.13 |
45.12 |
42.47 |
42.96 |
43.16 |
48.16 |
57.87 |
92.63 |
49.27 |
|
39.37 |
53.72 |
60.77 |
54.00 |
46.60 |
44.50 |
45.23 |
45.21 |
49.69 |
58.17 |
91.95 |
50.79 |
|
42.44 |
49.07 |
67.06 |
61.98 |
55.00 |
49.24 |
48.34 |
47.00 |
49.11 |
56.91 |
98.27 |
52.84 |
|
37.44 |
41.94 |
55.30 |
52.02 |
47.16 |
43.49 |
44.05 |
44.13 |
47.28 |
54.62 |
87.62 |
48.68 |
|
35.97 |
39.88 |
51.91 |
49.14 |
44.95 |
41.94 |
42.95 |
43.47 |
46.84 |
54.30 |
87.36 |
47.80 |
|
34.51 |
37.74 |
48.25 |
45.98 |
42.57 |
40.24 |
41.75 |
42.74 |
46.41 |
53.97 |
85.35 |
47.15 |
|
34.53 |
37.85 |
48.31 |
46.03 |
42.65 |
40.27 |
41.76 |
42.73 |
46.40 |
54.03 |
82.83 |
47.46 |
|
34.25 |
37.44 |
47.57 |
45.46 |
42.22 |
39.93 |
41.53 |
42.57 |
46.40 |
54.06 |
80.96 |
47.60 |
|
34.05 |
37.10 |
47.03 |
45.01 |
41.84 |
39.65 |
41.31 |
42.42 |
46.33 |
53.88 |
79.38 |
47.77 |
|
33.67 |
36.55 |
46.22 |
44.31 |
41.24 |
39.23 |
41.01 |
42.22 |
46.18 |
53.59 |
77.61 |
47.90 |
|
33.55 |
36.52 |
46.25 |
44.30 |
41.17 |
39.20 |
40.96 |
42.15 |
46.08 |
53.54 |
77.14 |
48.23 |
|
33.21 |
36.25 |
45.90 |
43.97 |
40.85 |
38.95 |
40.76 |
41.97 |
45.89 |
53.49 |
86.97 |
48.82 |
|
32.92 |
36.01 |
45.61 |
43.68 |
40.63 |
38.72 |
40.55 |
41.75 |
45.66 |
53.29 |
86.12 |
48.62 |
|
Female |
||||||||||||
93.46 |
87.16 |
81.48 |
69.03 |
62.65 |
66.16 |
68.96 |
64.12 |
57.42 |
52.29 |
58.06 |
59.39 |
|
98.48 |
83.10 |
72.39 |
76.08 |
90.11 |
97.80 |
96.33 |
74.60 |
61.77 |
45.75 |
52.99 |
64.58 |
|
16.81 |
66.57 |
61.08 |
49.04 |
46.61 |
49.37 |
55.38 |
53.44 |
52.55 |
50.48 |
53.51 |
51.81 |
|
78.58 |
52.54 |
49.56 |
42.42 |
40.11 |
43.07 |
46.74 |
49.29 |
48.92 |
51.74 |
52.97 |
48.07 |
|
80.00 |
44.55 |
42.29 |
40.00 |
37.22 |
40.09 |
44.44 |
47.81 |
48.82 |
51.82 |
53.38 |
46.57 |
|
40.93 |
41.26 |
39.79 |
37.54 |
37.39 |
39.47 |
41.89 |
45.06 |
45.29 |
50.31 |
69.01 |
44.81 |
|
36.16 |
36.19 |
38.04 |
35.53 |
34.48 |
36.72 |
40.08 |
42.79 |
44.15 |
49.64 |
72.09 |
43.03 |
|
44.09 |
38.31 |
39.79 |
39.35 |
36.03 |
37.85 |
40.54 |
41.77 |
43.36 |
47.35 |
71.60 |
42.67 |
|
41.14 |
52.61 |
50.54 |
45.24 |
40.94 |
40.40 |
40.39 |
40.87 |
41.90 |
45.89 |
70.34 |
43.30 |
|
59.84 |
54.38 |
50.65 |
45.46 |
40.75 |
38.70 |
39.43 |
39.08 |
39.56 |
44.29 |
65.62 |
41.74 |
|
55.46 |
62.01 |
57.60 |
55.65 |
52.28 |
48.23 |
45.10 |
41.63 |
39.73 |
43.34 |
67.12 |
45.49 |
|
35.97 |
58.99 |
47.63 |
42.53 |
38.59 |
38.35 |
38.54 |
37.97 |
37.51 |
42.25 |
68.15 |
40.09 |
|
43.62 |
54.27 |
51.58 |
42.30 |
39.41 |
37.65 |
38.89 |
37.94 |
37.48 |
42.30 |
66.29 |
40.11 |
|
31.61 |
44.54 |
55.17 |
50.28 |
43.80 |
41.78 |
40.47 |
39.18 |
37.84 |
41.44 |
68.63 |
41.57 |
|
28.11 |
37.56 |
45.31 |
41.58 |
36.99 |
36.36 |
36.15 |
36.33 |
36.20 |
40.00 |
61.52 |
37.98 |
|
27.25 |
35.35 |
42.13 |
38.74 |
34.89 |
34.76 |
34.95 |
35.63 |
35.91 |
39.93 |
61.60 |
37.15 |
|
26.33 |
33.13 |
38.94 |
35.87 |
32.79 |
33.15 |
33.71 |
34.89 |
35.55 |
39.84 |
60.37 |
36.47 |
|
26.34 |
32.99 |
38.66 |
35.63 |
32.65 |
33.07 |
33.70 |
34.96 |
35.67 |
40.08 |
58.81 |
36.68 |
|
26.22 |
32.38 |
37.79 |
34.89 |
32.09 |
32.64 |
33.40 |
34.79 |
35.67 |
40.15 |
57.52 |
36.67 |
|
26.16 |
32.05 |
37.29 |
34.48 |
31.82 |
32.48 |
33.30 |
34.82 |
35.83 |
40.27 |
56.69 |
36.87 |
|
25.72 |
31.27 |
36.26 |
33.57 |
31.09 |
31.87 |
32.78 |
34.41 |
35.48 |
39.90 |
55.09 |
36.65 |
|
25.28 |
30.90 |
35.84 |
33.19 |
30.71 |
31.48 |
32.38 |
33.96 |
35.01 |
39.43 |
54.27 |
36.42 |
|
24.89 |
30.43 |
35.25 |
32.66 |
30.25 |
31.05 |
32.00 |
33.60 |
34.66 |
39.15 |
60.96 |
36.56 |
|
24.85 |
30.17 |
34.89 |
32.35 |
30.03 |
30.88 |
31.90 |
33.57 |
34.68 |
39.20 |
60.80 |
36.53 |
|
Total |
||||||||||||
92.22 |
124.77 |
97.85 |
84.16 |
78.23 |
73.59 |
74.32 |
71.28 |
70.50 |
70.34 |
82.30 |
73.50 |
|
104.66 |
87.77 |
81.13 |
79.66 |
94.97 |
102.83 |
99.05 |
86.67 |
75.99 |
62.22 |
63.85 |
77.32 |
|
58.76 |
61.29 |
57.05 |
48.86 |
43.88 |
48.54 |
56.27 |
59.84 |
63.22 |
64.59 |
74.50 |
59.95 |
|
54.92 |
54.67 |
60.14 |
54.80 |
51.11 |
47.75 |
50.57 |
54.92 |
58.15 |
64.76 |
70.30 |
57.35 |
|
71.16 |
48.38 |
54.47 |
52.64 |
49.45 |
46.66 |
48.89 |
53.19 |
56.96 |
64.42 |
69.57 |
55.78 |
|
37.62 |
44.01 |
52.80 |
53.04 |
48.66 |
46.52 |
47.08 |
51.01 |
54.38 |
62.83 |
90.64 |
54.58 |
|
45.76 |
41.06 |
48.61 |
52.52 |
48.27 |
45.77 |
45.46 |
49.46 |
53.19 |
61.66 |
93.26 |
53.17 |
|
62.08 |
44.61 |
50.49 |
57.84 |
50.68 |
47.55 |
46.21 |
48.68 |
51.40 |
58.95 |
89.82 |
52.78 |
|
48.90 |
57.03 |
59.86 |
62.93 |
55.67 |
50.69 |
46.47 |
47.50 |
49.70 |
56.55 |
87.65 |
53.15 |
|
61.69 |
59.05 |
57.79 |
58.34 |
51.54 |
46.36 |
44.54 |
44.33 |
46.59 |
55.19 |
82.62 |
50.12 |
|
62.99 |
67.57 |
70.59 |
70.55 |
68.35 |
64.41 |
58.91 |
51.49 |
48.62 |
54.04 |
86.07 |
57.82 |
|
43.76 |
58.43 |
53.55 |
47.13 |
42.52 |
40.80 |
41.12 |
40.95 |
43.66 |
51.64 |
83.23 |
45.51 |
|
40.94 |
53.93 |
57.06 |
49.27 |
43.67 |
41.66 |
42.54 |
42.08 |
44.43 |
51.70 |
81.89 |
46.32 |
|
38.31 |
47.27 |
62.15 |
57.13 |
50.33 |
46.10 |
44.94 |
43.59 |
44.18 |
50.47 |
86.45 |
48.04 |
|
33.83 |
40.19 |
51.09 |
47.56 |
42.83 |
40.44 |
40.59 |
40.69 |
42.36 |
48.43 |
76.97 |
44.05 |
|
32.60 |
38.07 |
47.74 |
44.61 |
40.58 |
38.82 |
39.41 |
39.97 |
41.95 |
48.12 |
76.62 |
43.13 |
|
31.36 |
35.91 |
44.26 |
41.49 |
38.25 |
37.11 |
38.17 |
39.20 |
41.51 |
47.83 |
74.78 |
42.42 |
|
31.40 |
35.92 |
44.17 |
41.34 |
38.17 |
37.05 |
38.14 |
39.18 |
41.53 |
47.90 |
72.59 |
42.64 |
|
31.19 |
35.44 |
43.39 |
40.65 |
37.62 |
36.64 |
37.84 |
38.99 |
41.49 |
47.90 |
70.85 |
42.67 |
|
31.04 |
35.10 |
42.88 |
40.18 |
37.22 |
36.37 |
37.65 |
38.90 |
41.49 |
47.80 |
69.54 |
42.82 |
|
30.65 |
34.46 |
41.98 |
39.36 |
36.50 |
35.83 |
37.22 |
38.59 |
41.21 |
47.44 |
67.73 |
42.76 |
|
30.42 |
34.31 |
41.84 |
39.18 |
36.23 |
35.60 |
36.97 |
38.33 |
40.90 |
47.16 |
67.05 |
42.80 |
|
30.07 |
33.96 |
41.39 |
38.75 |
35.80 |
35.23 |
36.65 |
38.04 |
40.60 |
46.96 |
75.40 |
43.14 |
|
29.89 |
33.72 |
41.08 |
38.46 |
35.55 |
34.99 |
36.47 |
37.89 |
40.46 |
46.85 |
74.81 |
42.99 |
1 Death, recovery, and "other" reasons except conversion to old-age benefit at normal retirement age. 2 Does not reflect termination due to conversion at normal retirement age. See table II.7 for overall disability termination rates |
· Historical rates computed as the ratio of (a) age-specific total terminations, to (b) exposure of disabled worker in force population.
· Future rates calculated as the sum of projected termination rates due to death, recovery and "other" reasons.
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions
List of Studies
December 26, 2001