Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A. |
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1 The coverage rate is the number of persons with any covered employment during the year as a percentage of the total population aged 15 or older at the end of the year. 2 The disability incidence rate is the number of awards to disabled worker beneficiaries per thousand insured persons (not receiving benefits) under normal retirement age and is age-sex-adjusted based on the insured population as of January 1, 1998. 3 The disability termination rate is the number of disabled worker terminations (due to all reasons including death, recovery, and attainment of normal retirement age) per thousand disabled worker beneficiaries. 4 The fully insured rate is the number of fully insured persons aged 62 or older expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 62 or older, as of December 31. 5 The disability insured rate is the number of disability insured persons expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 15 to normal retirement age, as of December 31. |
· Covered persons used in calculating coverage rate from the Annual Statistical Supplement (historical), or the Office of the Chief Actuary (projected). Population figures from the Office of the Chief Actuary.
· Fully insured persons used in calculating fully insured rate from the Office of Research, Evaluation and Statistics (historical), or the Office of the Chief Actuary (projected based on historical relationship to population and coverage rates).
· Disability insured persons used in calculating disability insured rate from the Office of Research, Evaluation and Statistics (historical), or the Office of the Chief Actuary (projected based on historical relationship to fully insured and labor force rates).
Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A6 and V.B6 for low-cost and high-cost alternatives, respectively.
List of Studies
December 26, 2001