Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

II. ASSUMPTIONS

Table II.1—Selected OASDI Short-Range Economic Assumptions
(Calendar years 1975-2010)
Calendar year
Average annual percentage increase in-
  Real-wage
differential 1
(percent)
  Average annual
interest rate 2
(percent)
  Average annual
unemployment
rate 3
(percent)
  Average annual
percentage
increase in
labor force 4
  Real GDP 5
  Average annual
wage in covered
employment
  Consumer
Price Index 6
1975
-.3
6.7
9.1
-2.4
7.4
8.5
1.9
1976
5.2
8.5
5.7
2.8
7.1
7.7
2.5
1977
4.5
6.8
6.5
.3
7.1
7.0
2.9
1978
5.7
11.6
7.7
3.9
8.2
6.1
3.3
1979
3.4
9.8
11.4
-1.6
9.1
5.8
2.7
1980
.0
6.7
13.4
-6.7
11.0
7.2
1.9
1981
2.5
10.8
10.3
.5
13.3
7.6
3.6
1982
-2.0
6.3
6.0
.3
12.8
9.7
1.5
1983
4.3
4.2
3.0
1.2
11.0
9.6
1.2
1984
7.3
6.0
3.5
2.5
12.4
7.5
1.8
1985
3.8
6.0
3.5
2.5
10.8
7.2
1.7
1986
3.4
4.6
1.6
3.0
8.0
7.0
2.0
1987
3.4
4.6
3.6
1.0
8.4
6.2
1.7
1988
4.2
5.3
4.0
1.3
8.8
5.5
1.5
1989
3.5
3.9
4.8
-.9
8.7
5.3
1.7
1990
1.8
5.1
5.2
-.1
8.6
5.6
1.6
1991
-.5
3.0
4.1
-1.1
8.0
6.9
.4
1992
3.1
4.9
2.9
2.0
7.1
7.5
1.4
1993
2.7
1.9
2.8
-.9
6.1
6.9
.8
1994
4.0
3.4
2.5
1.0
7.1
6.1
1.4
1995
2.7
4.0
2.9
1.1
6.9
5.6
1.0
1996
3.6
4.5
2.9
1.6
6.6
5.4
1.2
1997
4.4
6.0
2.3
3.7
6.6
4.9
1.8
1998
4.4
5.7
1.3
4.4
5.6
4.5
1.0
1999
4.2
75.7
2.2
3.5
5.9
4.2
1.2
2000
75.1
75.5
3.5
2.0
6.2
4.0
1.1
2001
3.1
4.9
3.0
1.9
5.6
4.2
1.0
2002
3.1
4.8
2.9
1.9
6.0
4.4
1.1
2003
2.6
4.3
3.0
1.3
6.0
4.6
.9
2004
2.4
4.3
3.1
1.2
6.2
4.8
.8
2005
2.3
4.4
3.2
1.2
6.2
4.9
.8
2006
2.2
4.4
3.3
1.2
6.3
5.1
.8
2007
2.0
4.3
3.3
1.0
6.3
5.2
.8
2008
2.0
4.2
3.3
.9
6.2
5.3
.7
2009
2.0
4.3
3.3
1.0
6.3
5.4
.7
2010
2.0
4.3
3.3
1.0
6.3
5.5
.7

1 The real-wage differential is the difference between nominal wage growth and inflation. This differential is calculated as the percent change in average annual covered wages minus the percent change in the average annual CPI-W. Numbers may not add due to rounding.

2 The average annual interest rate is the average of the 12 monthly nominal interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds. In practice, these rates are compounded semiannually.

3 The rates shown are unadjusted civilian unemployment rates.

4 Labor force is the total for the United States (including military personnel) and reflects the average of the monthly numbers of persons in the labor force for each year.

5 The real GDP (gross domestic product) is the market value of all final goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S., expressed in 1996 dollars.

6 The Consumer Price Index is the average annual value for the calendar year of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

7 Preliminary. Wages in covered employment are considered preliminary for several years primarily due to uncertainty of estimates for amounts above the benefit and contribution base.

Sources:

· Historical real GDP and unemployment rates from various issues of Survey of Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce.

· Historical average wages in covered employment from Annual Statistical Supplement.

· Historical CPI from various issues of News, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor.

· Historical interest rates from unpublished monthly report, Department of the Treasury.

· Historical labor force from Employment and Earnings, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor.

· Future rates projected by the Office of the Chief Actuary.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A1 and V.B1 for low-cost and high-cost alternatives, respectively.

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December 26, 2001