Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

II. ASSUMPTIONS

Table II.3—Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index Increases, OASDI Contribution
and Benefit Base, and Retirement Earnings Test Exempt Amounts
(Calendar years 1975-2010)
Calendar year
  OASDI
benefit increase 1
(percent)
  Increase in average
wage index 2
(percent)
  OASDI
contribution and
benefit base 3
Retirement earnings test exempt amounts
  Under normal
retirement age 4
  Normal retirement
age or older 5
1975
8.0
7.5
$14,100
$2,520
$2,520
1976
6.4
6.9
15,300
2,760
2,760
1977
5.9
6.0
16,500
3,000
3,000
1978
6.5
7.9
17,700
3,240
4,000
1979
9.9
8.7
22,900
3,480
4,500
1980
14.3
9.0
25,900
3,720
5,000
1981
11.2
10.1
29,700
4,080
5,500
1982
7.4
5.5
32,400
4,440
6,000
1983
3.5
4.9
35,700
4,920
6,600
1984
3.5
5.9
37,800
5,160
6,960
1985
3.1
4.3
39,600
5,400
7,320
1986
1.3
3.0
42,000
5,760
7,800
1987
4.2
6.4
43,800
6,000
8,160
1988
4.0
4.9
45,000
6,120
8,400
1989
4.7
4.0
48,000
6,480
8,880
1990
5.4
4.6
51,300
6,840
9,360
1991
3.7
3.7
53,400
7,080
9,720
1992
3.0
5.2
55,500
7,440
10,200
1993
2.6
.9
57,600
7,680
10,560
1994
2.8
2.7
60,600
8,040
11,160
1995
2.6
4.0
61,200
8,160
11,280
1996
2.9
4.9
62,700
8,280
612,500
1997
2.1
5.8
65,400
8,640
613,500
1998
1.3
5.2
68,400
9,120
614,500
1999
72.5
5.6
72,600
9,600
615,500
2000
3.5
85.4
76,200
10,080
617,000
2001
2.8
4.9
80,400
10,680
625,000
2002
2.9
4.7
84,900
11,280
630,000
2003
3.0
4.3
89,100
11,760
31,440
2004
3.1
4.3
93,300
12,360
33,000
2005
3.2
4.4
97,200
12,840
34,320
2006
3.3
4.4
101,400
13,440
35,880
2007
3.3
4.2
105,900
14,040
37,440
2008
3.3
4.2
110,400
14,640
39,000
2009
3.3
4.3
115,200
15,240
40,680
2010
3.3
4.3
120,000
15,960
42,480

1 Effective with benefits payable for June in each year 1975-82, and for December in each year after 1982.

2 Increase in the average wage index over the prior year. See table II.2 for projected dollar amounts of the average wage index.

3 The bases for years after 1989 were increased slightly by changes to the indexing procedure, as required by Public Law 101-239. Prior to 1991, the Hospital Insurance (HI) contribution base was the same as the OASDI contribution and benefit base. Higher HI bases of $125,000, $130,200, and $135,000 applied for 1991-93, respectively. Public Law 103-66 repealed the HI contribution base.

4 See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age".

5 During the period 1955-82, the retirement earnings test did not apply at ages 72 or older; during 1983-99, it did not apply at ages 70 or older. Public Law 106-182 eliminates the earnings test for workers attaining normal retirement age through age 69 in 2000 or later. Exception: the test still applies to all months prior to attainment of the full retirement age in the calendar year the beneficiary attains full retirement age.

6 Amount specified by Public Law 104-121.

7 Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent.

8 Based on estimated average wage index of $32,104.67 for 2000.

Sources:

· Historical figures published in various issues of the Federal Register.

· Future benefit increases based on assumed future growth in CPI; all other future figures based on average amount of total wages.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A3 and V.B3 for low-cost and high-cost alternatives, respectively.

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December 26, 2001