Short-Range Actuarial Projections of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program, 2001
Actuarial Study No. 115
Chris Motsiopoulos and Tim Zayatz, A.S.A.
 Contents Glossary




 

II. ASSUMPTIONS

Table II.6—Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions
(Calendar years 1975-2010)
Calendar
year
Total
fertility
rate 1
Age-sex-adjusted
death rate 2
(per 100,000)
Period life expectancy 3
Net immigration
At birth
At age 65
Legal 4
Other
than
legal5
Male
Female
Male
Female
1975
1.77
1,020.9
68.7
76.6
13.7
18.0
289,646
...
1976
1.74
1,010.1
69.1
76.8
13.8
18.1
376,717
...
1977
1.80
981.8
69.4
77.2
13.9
18.3
346,736
...
1978
1.76
976.3
69.6
77.3
14.0
18.3
451,082
...
1979
1.82
944.8
70.0
77.7
14.2
18.6
345,261
...
1980
1.85
961.1
69.9
77.5
14.0
18.4
397,979
...
1981
1.83
934.5
70.4
77.9
14.2
18.6
447,450
...
1982
1.83
906.4
70.8
78.2
14.5
18.8
445,598
...
1983
1.81
916.0
70.9
78.1
14.3
18.6
419,822
...
1984
1.80
909.2
71.1
78.2
14.4
18.7
407,927
...
1985
1.84
912.3
71.1
78.2
14.4
18.6
427,507
...
1986
1.84
904.8
71.1
78.3
14.5
18.7
451,281
...
1987
1.87
895.6
71.3
78.4
14.6
18.7
451,137
...
1988
1.93
906.0
71.2
78.3
14.6
18.7
482,269
...
1989
2.01
882.4
71.5
78.6
14.8
18.9
459,083
...
1990
2.07
865.8
71.8
78.9
15.0
19.0
492,083
...
1991
2.07
854.8
71.9
79.0
15.1
19.1
528,004
...
1992
2.06
843.7
72.2
79.2
15.2
19.2
607,976
...
1993
2.04
863.5
72.0
78.9
15.1
19.0
660,011
...
1994
2.04
852.4
72.2
79.0
15.3
19.0
598,796
...
1995
2.02
850.1
72.4
79.0
15.3
19.0
537,146
...
1996
2.03
837.1
72.8
79.1
15.4
19.0
683,449
...
1997
2.04
822.5
73.3
79.3
15.5
19.1
596,873
...
1998
2.06
816.1
73.5
79.3
15.6
19.0
494,642
...
1999 6
2.07
809.8
73.6
79.4
15.7
19.1
495,000
300,000
2000 6
2.07
803.0
73.8
79.5
15.7
19.1
540,000
300,000
2001
2.06
796.5
74.0
79.6
15.8
19.2
540,000
300,000
2002
2.06
790.3
74.1
79.7
15.9
19.2
600,000
300,000
2003
2.05
784.5
74.3
79.8
15.9
19.2
600,000
300,000
2004
2.05
779.0
74.5
79.9
16.0
19.2
600,000
300,000
2005
2.04
773.7
74.6
80.0
16.0
19.3
600,000
300,000
2006
2.04
768.8
74.7
80.1
16.1
19.3
600,000
300,000
2007
2.03
764.1
74.9
80.1
16.1
19.3
600,000
300,000
2008
2.03
759.6
75.0
80.2
16.2
19.3
600,000
300,000
2009
2.03
755.3
75.2
80.3
16.2
19.3
600,000
300,000
2010
2.02
751.1
75.3
80.3
16.3
19.3
600,000
300,000

1 The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2025.

2 The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 1990, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

3 The period life expectancy for any year is the average number of years of life remaining for a group of persons if that group were to experience the death rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

4 Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration. Estimates do not include persons legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

5 Other-than-legal net immigration is estimated to average between 225,000 and 300,000 persons per year over the period 1980-98.

6 Preliminary or estimated.

Source: Estimates prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary.

Note: Future estimates based on 2001 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A5 and V.B5 for low-cost and high-cost alternatives, respectively.

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December 26, 2001