Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA 1
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
10,752.7
|
11,385.0
|
10,619.1
|
9,623.9
|
7,449.5
|
6,211.6
|
5,700.9
|
5,867.7
|
5,679.6
|
4,926.5
|
...
|
78,216.5
|
|
1985
|
9,940.0
|
11,045.9
|
11,544.7
|
10,683.6
|
9,642.8
|
7,418.4
|
6,134.6
|
5,533.1
|
5,548.6
|
5,169.9
|
...
|
82,661.6
|
|
1990
|
9,007.2
|
10,232.7
|
11,328.8
|
11,679.0
|
10,670.9
|
9,587.8
|
7,324.0
|
5,990.0
|
5,290.4
|
5,134.5
|
...
|
86,245.2
|
|
1995
|
9,762.6
|
9,462.7
|
10,480.3
|
11,454.0
|
11,689.8
|
10,610.2
|
9,456.0
|
7,140.7
|
5,757.3
|
4,963.1
|
...
|
90,776.6
|
|
1996
|
10,013.0
|
9,401.4
|
10,489.8
|
11,207.8
|
11,778.3
|
10,861.0
|
9,559.2
|
7,669.6
|
5,955.0
|
4,985.8
|
...
|
91,921.0
|
|
1997
|
10,202.2
|
9,511.2
|
10,431.5
|
10,950.7
|
11,782.2
|
11,128.9
|
9,693.7
|
8,042.4
|
6,256.0
|
5,079.0
|
...
|
93,077.7
|
|
1998
|
10,310.2
|
9,696.9
|
10,290.4
|
10,738.7
|
11,812.2
|
11,308.5
|
9,927.4
|
8,381.4
|
6,511.7
|
5,211.3
|
...
|
94,188.8
|
|
1999
|
10,334.8
|
9,925.5
|
10,131.7
|
10,650.4
|
11,729.0
|
11,488.1
|
10,196.1
|
8,784.5
|
6,734.2
|
5,308.6
|
...
|
95,282.9
|
|
2000
|
10,419.6
|
10,232.7
|
9,932.5
|
10,763.6
|
11,574.3
|
11,646.3
|
10,456.3
|
9,203.0
|
6,896.0
|
5,410.4
|
...
|
96,534.6
|
|
2001
|
10,455.2
|
10,537.1
|
9,907.8
|
10,829.0
|
11,410.0
|
11,755.6
|
10,700.6
|
9,334.2
|
7,332.7
|
5,590.5
|
...
|
97,852.6
|
|
2002
|
10,475.9
|
10,804.3
|
10,025.4
|
10,846.1
|
11,240.4
|
11,799.5
|
10,954.8
|
9,463.2
|
7,703.2
|
5,834.3
|
...
|
99,147.0
|
|
2003
|
10,526.1
|
10,890.8
|
10,172.0
|
10,731.8
|
11,050.5
|
11,814.5
|
11,192.8
|
9,666.1
|
8,073.3
|
6,092.7
|
170.8
|
100,381.4
|
|
2004
|
10,656.4
|
10,881.4
|
10,398.1
|
10,535.7
|
10,951.9
|
11,784.7
|
11,392.0
|
9,931.5
|
8,468.4
|
6,326.5
|
352.7
|
101,679.3
|
|
2005
|
10,821.5
|
10,822.9
|
10,673.4
|
10,329.4
|
10,963.5
|
11,662.1
|
11,558.6
|
10,213.1
|
8,829.9
|
6,588.2
|
546.3
|
103,008.8
|
|
2006
|
10,981.4
|
10,775.5
|
10,930.2
|
10,221.6
|
11,001.2
|
11,467.3
|
11,660.7
|
10,495.5
|
9,042.6
|
6,940.2
|
773.7
|
104,289.8
|
|
2007
|
11,104.2
|
10,765.2
|
11,115.4
|
10,255.7
|
10,975.0
|
11,249.2
|
11,698.8
|
10,767.2
|
9,185.6
|
7,326.2
|
1,031.7
|
105,474.2
|
|
2008
|
11,165.3
|
10,823.8
|
11,204.5
|
10,406.6
|
10,863.6
|
11,063.2
|
11,715.2
|
11,003.0
|
9,387.3
|
7,683.8
|
1,275.7
|
106,591.9
|
|
2009
|
11,145.5
|
10,954.6
|
11,195.5
|
10,631.6
|
10,670.2
|
10,967.5
|
11,687.5
|
11,200.5
|
9,649.2
|
8,062.9
|
1,286.6
|
107,451.6
|
|
2010
|
11,079.7
|
11,116.2
|
11,135.9
|
10,902.0
|
10,462.2
|
10,977.2
|
11,566.3
|
11,364.3
|
9,925.0
|
8,408.7
|
1,346.7
|
108,284.1
|
|
2011
|
10,997.8
|
11,272.2
|
11,087.4
|
11,154.4
|
10,351.7
|
11,012.0
|
11,373.7
|
11,464.9
|
10,200.8
|
8,614.2
|
1,497.6
|
109,026.4
|
|
2012
|
10,916.7
|
11,394.9
|
11,077.8
|
11,339.1
|
10,386.4
|
10,986.5
|
11,160.7
|
11,504.6
|
10,467.3
|
8,755.6
|
1,606.9
|
109,596.5
|
|
2013
|
10,856.0
|
11,456.1
|
11,136.7
|
11,428.3
|
10,536.8
|
10,877.1
|
10,979.7
|
11,523.2
|
10,699.0
|
8,952.8
|
1,620.4
|
110,066.0
|
|
2014
|
10,841.3
|
11,436.9
|
11,267.4
|
11,420.0
|
10,761.0
|
10,687.0
|
10,887.8
|
11,499.0
|
10,894.3
|
9,207.5
|
1,655.3
|
110,557.5
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
10,326.6
|
10,986.8
|
10,352.3
|
9,491.8
|
7,432.3
|
6,233.2
|
5,791.5
|
6,105.3
|
6,161.0
|
5,560.6
|
...
|
78,441.2
|
|
1985
|
9,432.4
|
10,594.7
|
11,198.7
|
10,475.6
|
9,556.4
|
7,450.9
|
6,215.8
|
5,725.0
|
5,955.2
|
5,935.9
|
...
|
82,540.4
|
|
1990
|
8,546.9
|
9,693.7
|
10,891.4
|
11,392.5
|
10,547.5
|
9,572.6
|
7,426.3
|
6,157.5
|
5,613.6
|
5,735.0
|
...
|
85,576.9
|
|
1995
|
9,206.3
|
8,998.7
|
10,030.5
|
11,112.0
|
11,505.3
|
10,592.3
|
9,545.8
|
7,337.2
|
6,036.1
|
5,427.7
|
...
|
89,791.7
|
|
1996
|
9,428.0
|
8,930.4
|
10,042.5
|
10,861.9
|
11,580.9
|
10,832.4
|
9,662.3
|
7,859.2
|
6,239.3
|
5,432.8
|
...
|
90,869.7
|
|
1997
|
9,600.3
|
9,011.9
|
9,993.4
|
10,594.4
|
11,570.5
|
11,082.1
|
9,799.6
|
8,235.9
|
6,542.3
|
5,510.4
|
...
|
91,940.7
|
|
1998
|
9,708.0
|
9,156.5
|
9,855.9
|
10,375.1
|
11,564.0
|
11,257.2
|
10,032.1
|
8,579.4
|
6,804.3
|
5,633.6
|
...
|
92,965.9
|
|
1999
|
9,757.0
|
9,343.5
|
9,702.6
|
10,273.3
|
11,470.7
|
11,414.3
|
10,292.9
|
8,986.2
|
7,034.8
|
5,724.9
|
...
|
94,000.2
|
|
2000
|
9,809.1
|
9,599.1
|
9,484.9
|
10,364.3
|
11,301.9
|
11,553.7
|
10,547.3
|
9,409.2
|
7,204.6
|
5,827.3
|
...
|
95,101.3
|
|
2001
|
9,832.0
|
9,860.5
|
9,422.7
|
10,415.4
|
11,113.6
|
11,651.3
|
10,782.0
|
9,556.1
|
7,632.4
|
6,017.6
|
...
|
96,283.7
|
|
2002
|
9,884.5
|
10,057.2
|
9,480.9
|
10,408.4
|
10,909.8
|
11,683.7
|
11,023.9
|
9,692.3
|
8,002.9
|
6,275.4
|
...
|
97,419.0
|
|
2003
|
10,017.7
|
10,105.1
|
9,598.4
|
10,300.2
|
10,697.7
|
11,683.5
|
11,246.6
|
9,896.3
|
8,389.7
|
6,542.6
|
187.3
|
98,665.0
|
|
2004
|
10,188.3
|
10,097.8
|
9,798.8
|
10,119.0
|
10,582.4
|
11,635.7
|
11,425.7
|
10,158.4
|
8,800.2
|
6,777.0
|
387.1
|
99,970.4
|
|
2005
|
10,357.0
|
10,079.0
|
10,052.2
|
9,915.8
|
10,595.5
|
11,482.7
|
11,582.0
|
10,434.5
|
9,178.0
|
7,034.3
|
600.7
|
101,311.7
|
|
2006
|
10,508.4
|
10,096.2
|
10,279.0
|
9,791.1
|
10,642.4
|
11,256.8
|
11,680.7
|
10,709.8
|
9,406.3
|
7,385.9
|
848.9
|
102,605.4
|
|
2007
|
10,622.9
|
10,172.8
|
10,414.5
|
9,800.8
|
10,621.4
|
11,017.4
|
11,708.0
|
10,971.8
|
9,555.8
|
7,782.4
|
1,125.9
|
103,793.8
|
|
2008
|
10,680.7
|
10,312.9
|
10,463.2
|
9,924.7
|
10,518.2
|
10,810.1
|
11,710.1
|
11,193.7
|
9,757.8
|
8,159.0
|
1,384.9
|
104,915.3
|
|
2009
|
10,664.2
|
10,483.4
|
10,455.3
|
10,124.6
|
10,338.5
|
10,696.5
|
11,663.8
|
11,372.2
|
10,016.9
|
8,556.6
|
1,391.3
|
105,763.3
|
|
2010
|
10,603.2
|
10,648.3
|
10,432.7
|
10,371.3
|
10,131.0
|
10,705.9
|
11,510.0
|
11,525.6
|
10,287.6
|
8,920.8
|
1,452.1
|
106,588.6
|
|
2011
|
10,527.5
|
10,795.9
|
10,446.4
|
10,591.7
|
10,001.4
|
10,748.6
|
11,283.7
|
11,621.9
|
10,557.3
|
9,141.6
|
1,612.8
|
107,328.6
|
|
2012
|
10,456.1
|
10,910.4
|
10,523.0
|
10,726.9
|
10,011.4
|
10,727.8
|
11,047.4
|
11,650.1
|
10,815.5
|
9,288.8
|
1,734.5
|
107,891.9
|
|
2013
|
10,407.9
|
10,968.2
|
10,663.0
|
10,775.6
|
10,135.1
|
10,625.6
|
10,842.9
|
11,653.4
|
11,034.6
|
9,487.0
|
1,751.2
|
108,344.5
|
|
2014
|
10,401.3
|
10,951.9
|
10,833.3
|
10,767.9
|
10,334.4
|
10,447.6
|
10,731.5
|
11,609.2
|
11,211.5
|
9,740.6
|
1,780.7
|
108,810.0
|
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
21,079.3
|
22,371.8
|
20,971.4
|
19,115.6
|
14,881.8
|
12,444.8
|
11,492.5
|
11,973.0
|
11,840.6
|
10,487.1
|
...
|
156,657.8
|
|
1985
|
19,372.4
|
21,640.5
|
22,743.4
|
21,159.2
|
19,199.2
|
14,869.3
|
12,350.4
|
11,258.1
|
11,503.8
|
11,105.8
|
...
|
165,202.0
|
|
1990
|
17,554.0
|
19,926.3
|
22,220.2
|
23,071.5
|
21,218.4
|
19,160.4
|
14,750.3
|
12,147.5
|
10,904.0
|
10,869.5
|
...
|
171,822.1
|
|
1995
|
18,968.9
|
18,461.4
|
20,510.7
|
22,566.0
|
23,195.1
|
21,202.5
|
19,001.7
|
14,477.8
|
11,793.3
|
10,390.8
|
...
|
180,568.3
|
|
1996
|
19,441.0
|
18,331.8
|
20,532.4
|
22,069.7
|
23,359.2
|
21,693.4
|
19,221.4
|
15,528.8
|
12,194.3
|
10,418.7
|
...
|
182,790.7
|
|
1997
|
19,802.5
|
18,523.0
|
20,424.9
|
21,545.0
|
23,352.7
|
22,211.0
|
19,493.3
|
16,278.2
|
12,798.3
|
10,589.4
|
...
|
185,018.4
|
|
1998
|
20,018.2
|
18,853.4
|
20,146.3
|
21,113.9
|
23,376.2
|
22,565.6
|
19,959.5
|
16,960.8
|
13,316.0
|
10,844.9
|
...
|
187,154.7
|
|
1999
|
20,091.8
|
19,269.1
|
19,834.3
|
20,923.7
|
23,199.7
|
22,902.4
|
20,489.0
|
17,770.7
|
13,769.0
|
11,033.5
|
...
|
189,283.1
|
|
2000
|
20,228.7
|
19,831.8
|
19,417.4
|
21,127.9
|
22,876.2
|
23,200.0
|
21,003.6
|
18,612.2
|
14,100.6
|
11,237.7
|
...
|
191,635.9
|
|
2001
|
20,287.2
|
20,397.6
|
19,330.5
|
21,244.4
|
22,523.6
|
23,406.9
|
21,482.6
|
18,890.3
|
14,965.1
|
11,608.2
|
...
|
194,136.3
|
|
2002
|
20,360.4
|
20,861.5
|
19,506.2
|
21,254.5
|
22,150.1
|
23,483.2
|
21,978.8
|
19,155.5
|
15,706.0
|
12,109.7
|
...
|
196,565.9
|
|
2003
|
20,543.9
|
20,995.9
|
19,770.4
|
21,032.0
|
21,748.2
|
23,498.0
|
22,439.4
|
19,562.3
|
16,463.0
|
12,635.3
|
358.1
|
199,046.4
|
|
2004
|
20,844.7
|
20,979.2
|
20,196.9
|
20,654.7
|
21,534.4
|
23,420.4
|
22,817.7
|
20,089.9
|
17,268.5
|
13,103.5
|
739.8
|
201,649.6
|
|
2005
|
21,178.5
|
20,901.9
|
20,725.6
|
20,245.3
|
21,559.0
|
23,144.8
|
23,140.6
|
20,647.6
|
18,007.8
|
13,622.5
|
1,147.0
|
204,320.5
|
|
2006
|
21,489.8
|
20,871.7
|
21,209.2
|
20,012.6
|
21,643.6
|
22,724.1
|
23,341.5
|
21,205.3
|
18,448.9
|
14,326.1
|
1,622.6
|
206,895.2
|
|
2007
|
21,727.2
|
20,937.9
|
21,529.9
|
20,056.5
|
21,596.3
|
22,266.6
|
23,406.9
|
21,739.1
|
18,741.3
|
15,108.6
|
2,157.6
|
209,267.9
|
|
2008
|
21,846.0
|
21,136.8
|
21,667.8
|
20,331.2
|
21,381.9
|
21,873.3
|
23,425.3
|
22,196.6
|
19,145.1
|
15,842.8
|
2,660.6
|
211,507.2
|
|
2009
|
21,809.8
|
21,438.0
|
21,650.8
|
20,756.1
|
21,008.7
|
21,664.0
|
23,351.3
|
22,572.7
|
19,666.0
|
16,619.5
|
2,677.9
|
213,214.9
|
|
2010
|
21,682.9
|
21,764.5
|
21,568.6
|
21,273.3
|
20,593.2
|
21,683.1
|
23,076.3
|
22,889.9
|
20,212.6
|
17,329.5
|
2,798.9
|
214,872.7
|
|
2011
|
21,525.3
|
22,068.1
|
21,533.8
|
21,746.0
|
20,353.1
|
21,760.5
|
22,657.4
|
23,086.7
|
20,758.0
|
17,755.8
|
3,110.4
|
216,355.0
|
|
2012
|
21,372.9
|
22,305.3
|
21,600.7
|
22,066.0
|
20,397.8
|
21,714.4
|
22,208.0
|
23,154.7
|
21,282.8
|
18,044.5
|
3,341.3
|
217,488.4
|
|
2013
|
21,263.9
|
22,424.3
|
21,799.7
|
22,204.0
|
20,671.9
|
21,502.7
|
21,822.6
|
23,176.6
|
21,733.6
|
18,439.8
|
3,371.5
|
218,410.5
|
|
2014
|
21,242.6
|
22,388.9
|
22,100.7
|
22,188.0
|
21,095.4
|
21,134.5
|
21,619.4
|
23,108.2
|
22,105.9
|
18,948.1
|
3,436.1
|
219,367.6
|
| 1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA." |
Source: Estimates prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Demographic Analysis Group.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.