Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA 1
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
96.92
|
93.97
|
90.39
|
86.64
|
89.17
|
90.50
|
90.20
|
90.54
|
89.63
|
84.00
|
...
|
90.16
|
|
1981
|
95.73
|
92.37
|
91.50
|
88.37
|
87.77
|
89.43
|
91.04
|
90.16
|
90.62
|
85.10
|
...
|
90.15
|
|
1982
|
94.71
|
90.74
|
91.40
|
88.70
|
89.02
|
89.49
|
90.34
|
90.16
|
91.19
|
87.58
|
...
|
90.15
|
|
1983
|
93.94
|
89.94
|
91.26
|
88.40
|
88.50
|
90.08
|
89.98
|
89.92
|
91.49
|
85.34
|
...
|
89.70
|
|
1984
|
93.82
|
90.56
|
91.20
|
88.97
|
88.28
|
89.76
|
90.42
|
89.70
|
90.41
|
88.42
|
...
|
89.93
|
|
1985
|
95.46
|
92.00
|
91.54
|
89.61
|
87.82
|
89.93
|
90.22
|
89.89
|
90.49
|
87.25
|
...
|
90.19
|
|
1986
|
95.76
|
92.56
|
91.49
|
90.24
|
89.38
|
88.27
|
88.90
|
90.44
|
89.80
|
87.46
|
...
|
90.28
|
|
1987
|
95.01
|
92.48
|
91.67
|
90.01
|
89.18
|
89.23
|
88.61
|
89.36
|
89.14
|
87.01
|
...
|
90.11
|
|
1988
|
94.79
|
93.19
|
91.40
|
90.14
|
89.15
|
88.85
|
89.45
|
89.06
|
88.82
|
87.28
|
...
|
90.16
|
|
1989
|
94.99
|
93.17
|
91.04
|
89.75
|
89.61
|
88.79
|
89.24
|
89.43
|
88.84
|
84.53
|
...
|
89.92
|
|
1990
|
94.39
|
92.90
|
90.92
|
89.66
|
89.98
|
88.41
|
89.69
|
89.54
|
89.02
|
86.04
|
...
|
89.99
|
|
1991
|
93.16
|
91.80
|
91.23
|
89.38
|
90.65
|
90.17
|
88.48
|
88.58
|
89.83
|
85.96
|
...
|
89.97
|
|
1992
|
91.76
|
90.26
|
91.50
|
90.25
|
90.84
|
90.24
|
90.00
|
88.84
|
89.14
|
85.88
|
...
|
90.06
|
|
1993
|
92.23
|
90.05
|
91.56
|
90.72
|
91.33
|
90.26
|
90.03
|
89.92
|
89.06
|
85.20
|
...
|
90.24
|
|
1994
|
93.22
|
91.27
|
91.08
|
91.22
|
91.23
|
90.88
|
89.96
|
89.96
|
89.54
|
86.03
|
...
|
90.54
|
|
1995
|
94.18
|
92.17
|
90.60
|
91.24
|
91.59
|
91.42
|
89.44
|
90.43
|
89.64
|
85.44
|
...
|
90.67
|
|
1996
|
94.95
|
92.10
|
90.79
|
91.17
|
91.71
|
91.87
|
91.01
|
89.17
|
88.65
|
86.51
|
...
|
90.83
|
|
1997
|
95.17
|
92.19
|
90.79
|
91.14
|
91.86
|
91.67
|
90.67
|
90.49
|
88.81
|
85.23
|
...
|
90.84
|
|
1998
|
95.45
|
92.35
|
90.85
|
90.95
|
91.81
|
91.83
|
90.52
|
90.50
|
89.89
|
84.90
|
...
|
90.90
|
|
1999
|
95.91
|
92.56
|
90.99
|
90.56
|
92.19
|
91.69
|
91.09
|
90.42
|
89.95
|
86.21
|
...
|
91.08
|
|
2000
|
96.00
|
92.67
|
91.12
|
90.53
|
92.15
|
92.27
|
91.93
|
90.47
|
90.09
|
86.04
|
...
|
91.28
|
|
2001
|
95.62
|
91.86
|
90.77
|
90.74
|
92.23
|
92.22
|
92.42
|
91.57
|
89.83
|
85.01
|
...
|
91.25
|
|
2002
|
93.88
|
89.83
|
90.43
|
90.45
|
92.04
|
92.28
|
92.43
|
91.06
|
91.12
|
85.80
|
...
|
90.99
|
|
2003
|
94.69
|
90.31
|
90.89
|
90.63
|
92.12
|
92.24
|
92.35
|
91.12
|
89.93
|
85.26
|
84.00
|
90.95
|
|
2004
|
94.71
|
90.65
|
91.08
|
90.92
|
92.05
|
92.06
|
92.19
|
91.47
|
89.90
|
85.31
|
84.00
|
91.00
|
|
2005
|
94.72
|
91.04
|
91.23
|
91.05
|
91.94
|
91.84
|
91.99
|
91.70
|
89.89
|
85.47
|
84.00
|
91.00
|
|
2006
|
94.73
|
91.41
|
91.32
|
91.10
|
91.90
|
91.77
|
91.75
|
91.82
|
89.89
|
85.50
|
84.00
|
90.99
|
|
2007
|
94.82
|
91.74
|
91.40
|
91.20
|
91.87
|
91.55
|
91.49
|
91.99
|
89.89
|
85.54
|
84.00
|
90.96
|
|
2008
|
94.90
|
92.01
|
91.41
|
91.32
|
91.94
|
91.55
|
91.28
|
92.11
|
90.00
|
85.43
|
84.00
|
90.96
|
|
2009
|
95.05
|
92.26
|
91.44
|
91.42
|
92.00
|
91.49
|
91.07
|
92.15
|
90.05
|
85.33
|
84.00
|
90.95
|
|
2010
|
95.26
|
92.47
|
91.46
|
91.45
|
92.08
|
91.37
|
90.94
|
92.16
|
89.98
|
85.24
|
84.00
|
90.92
|
|
2011
|
95.46
|
92.60
|
91.49
|
91.48
|
92.16
|
91.28
|
90.87
|
92.16
|
89.86
|
85.16
|
84.00
|
90.89
|
|
2012
|
95.67
|
92.71
|
91.51
|
91.46
|
92.23
|
91.11
|
90.77
|
92.17
|
89.80
|
85.07
|
84.00
|
90.85
|
|
2013
|
95.85
|
92.81
|
91.52
|
91.44
|
92.26
|
90.93
|
90.68
|
92.16
|
89.83
|
85.02
|
84.00
|
90.82
|
|
2014
|
96.03
|
92.82
|
91.53
|
91.44
|
92.34
|
90.94
|
90.59
|
92.14
|
89.79
|
85.01
|
84.00
|
90.81
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
96.40
|
87.38
|
75.90
|
62.47
|
60.73
|
68.02
|
73.02
|
75.16
|
73.88
|
65.31
|
...
|
73.57
|
|
1981
|
95.31
|
86.51
|
78.29
|
66.33
|
62.36
|
69.37
|
75.03
|
76.71
|
75.72
|
68.54
|
...
|
74.99
|
|
1982
|
94.30
|
84.97
|
79.47
|
68.76
|
66.37
|
72.00
|
76.15
|
78.96
|
77.55
|
71.83
|
...
|
76.29
|
|
1983
|
93.75
|
83.49
|
80.39
|
70.34
|
68.19
|
73.26
|
78.07
|
79.76
|
78.97
|
70.21
|
...
|
76.69
|
|
1984
|
93.81
|
84.39
|
80.38
|
72.20
|
69.78
|
74.38
|
78.92
|
80.63
|
79.57
|
72.88
|
...
|
77.60
|
|
1985
|
95.44
|
86.72
|
81.04
|
73.71
|
70.76
|
75.51
|
79.91
|
81.08
|
80.47
|
72.90
|
...
|
78.63
|
|
1986
|
95.73
|
88.14
|
81.96
|
74.79
|
72.62
|
75.27
|
79.99
|
81.94
|
81.03
|
73.79
|
...
|
79.46
|
|
1987
|
95.36
|
88.41
|
83.01
|
75.35
|
73.13
|
76.38
|
80.73
|
81.42
|
81.89
|
74.45
|
...
|
79.99
|
|
1988
|
95.28
|
89.16
|
82.98
|
76.50
|
73.77
|
77.07
|
81.32
|
82.79
|
82.12
|
75.53
|
...
|
80.60
|
|
1989
|
95.09
|
89.65
|
83.62
|
76.80
|
75.07
|
77.65
|
81.93
|
83.36
|
83.14
|
74.90
|
...
|
81.10
|
|
1990
|
94.60
|
89.59
|
84.28
|
77.43
|
75.99
|
78.19
|
82.64
|
84.15
|
83.26
|
76.05
|
...
|
81.59
|
|
1991
|
94.03
|
87.96
|
84.99
|
78.41
|
76.89
|
80.11
|
81.92
|
84.19
|
84.27
|
77.50
|
...
|
82.01
|
|
1992
|
92.91
|
86.67
|
85.52
|
79.77
|
77.69
|
80.47
|
83.67
|
85.06
|
84.08
|
78.94
|
...
|
82.53
|
|
1993
|
92.70
|
86.65
|
85.70
|
80.19
|
78.98
|
80.84
|
83.97
|
85.74
|
85.20
|
77.97
|
...
|
82.90
|
|
1994
|
94.11
|
87.53
|
85.87
|
81.12
|
79.35
|
81.48
|
84.37
|
86.23
|
85.42
|
80.05
|
...
|
83.54
|
|
1995
|
94.84
|
88.29
|
85.63
|
81.62
|
79.94
|
81.84
|
84.40
|
86.76
|
86.03
|
79.69
|
...
|
83.89
|
|
1996
|
95.36
|
88.88
|
86.24
|
81.96
|
80.43
|
82.22
|
85.83
|
85.58
|
86.04
|
80.12
|
...
|
84.34
|
|
1997
|
95.49
|
89.86
|
85.98
|
82.23
|
81.07
|
82.17
|
85.43
|
86.86
|
86.18
|
78.47
|
...
|
84.54
|
|
1998
|
95.88
|
90.20
|
86.81
|
82.54
|
81.06
|
82.82
|
85.21
|
86.76
|
86.51
|
78.79
|
...
|
84.86
|
|
1999
|
96.18
|
90.38
|
87.16
|
83.16
|
81.69
|
82.84
|
85.59
|
86.81
|
86.60
|
79.56
|
...
|
85.23
|
|
2000
|
96.39
|
90.92
|
87.61
|
83.33
|
82.33
|
83.34
|
85.70
|
87.23
|
86.56
|
80.06
|
...
|
85.62
|
|
2001
|
96.04
|
90.66
|
87.17
|
84.18
|
82.75
|
83.63
|
86.02
|
88.10
|
86.34
|
79.60
|
...
|
85.82
|
|
2002
|
94.69
|
88.53
|
87.83
|
83.86
|
83.01
|
84.05
|
85.89
|
87.42
|
87.54
|
80.28
|
...
|
85.72
|
|
2003
|
95.58
|
88.58
|
87.76
|
84.11
|
83.42
|
84.09
|
86.15
|
87.57
|
87.19
|
79.71
|
76.07
|
85.77
|
|
2004
|
95.53
|
88.84
|
88.04
|
84.71
|
84.02
|
84.61
|
86.64
|
88.12
|
87.24
|
80.20
|
76.30
|
86.18
|
|
2005
|
95.47
|
89.37
|
88.33
|
85.23
|
84.53
|
84.96
|
86.71
|
88.31
|
87.48
|
80.60
|
76.09
|
86.49
|
|
2006
|
95.40
|
89.85
|
88.51
|
85.72
|
84.83
|
85.34
|
86.80
|
88.58
|
87.75
|
80.85
|
76.11
|
86.75
|
|
2007
|
95.33
|
90.16
|
88.59
|
86.19
|
85.17
|
85.61
|
86.91
|
88.86
|
88.12
|
81.02
|
75.82
|
86.96
|
|
2008
|
95.25
|
90.41
|
88.66
|
86.48
|
85.47
|
85.87
|
87.05
|
89.06
|
88.42
|
81.19
|
75.85
|
87.14
|
|
2009
|
95.21
|
90.61
|
88.74
|
86.78
|
85.73
|
86.12
|
87.16
|
89.22
|
88.66
|
81.27
|
75.78
|
87.30
|
|
2010
|
95.31
|
90.73
|
88.79
|
87.09
|
85.88
|
86.34
|
87.28
|
89.36
|
88.74
|
81.25
|
75.91
|
87.42
|
|
2011
|
95.44
|
90.82
|
88.84
|
87.37
|
85.99
|
86.52
|
87.39
|
89.41
|
88.92
|
81.27
|
76.02
|
87.51
|
|
2012
|
95.58
|
90.92
|
88.88
|
87.57
|
86.00
|
86.68
|
87.51
|
89.44
|
89.06
|
81.35
|
76.15
|
87.60
|
|
2013
|
95.67
|
91.03
|
88.92
|
87.72
|
86.00
|
86.82
|
87.62
|
89.48
|
89.22
|
81.43
|
76.27
|
87.67
|
|
2014
|
95.73
|
91.12
|
88.96
|
87.84
|
86.00
|
86.91
|
87.69
|
89.52
|
89.37
|
81.51
|
76.42
|
87.73
|
| 1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA." |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.