Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
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 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA 1
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
0.9
|
7.7
|
10.2
|
12.8
|
15.8
|
20.1
|
28.1
|
45.8
|
73.1
|
71.9
|
4.9
|
291.2
|
|
1985
|
.4
|
7.9
|
15.5
|
18.2
|
20.7
|
22.6
|
27.4
|
40.0
|
61.2
|
63.6
|
3.6
|
281.1
|
|
1990
|
.7
|
8.4
|
16.9
|
23.4
|
27.1
|
29.6
|
30.9
|
39.7
|
59.4
|
64.3
|
3.3
|
303.6
|
|
1995
|
.6
|
8.1
|
16.3
|
27.7
|
36.7
|
41.3
|
46.0
|
54.8
|
73.3
|
69.9
|
3.7
|
378.5
|
|
1996
|
.6
|
7.2
|
14.4
|
24.0
|
33.5
|
38.8
|
44.4
|
54.5
|
69.7
|
64.9
|
3.3
|
355.5
|
|
1997
|
.6
|
6.9
|
12.2
|
19.1
|
27.9
|
34.7
|
39.8
|
52.7
|
68.6
|
61.3
|
3.1
|
326.8
|
|
1998
|
.6
|
7.1
|
11.9
|
18.0
|
27.3
|
35.8
|
41.7
|
55.6
|
70.7
|
61.3
|
3.1
|
333.0
|
|
1999
|
.7
|
7.8
|
11.9
|
16.9
|
27.2
|
36.2
|
42.8
|
57.2
|
71.3
|
62.3
|
3.2
|
337.5
|
|
2000
|
.7
|
9.1
|
12.1
|
16.2
|
26.0
|
35.5
|
42.3
|
58.4
|
72.2
|
63.0
|
3.2
|
338.8
|
|
2001
|
.9
|
11.8
|
14.7
|
18.5
|
27.6
|
38.3
|
46.2
|
64.0
|
80.6
|
68.7
|
3.1
|
374.4
|
|
2002
|
1.0
|
14.0
|
15.3
|
18.9
|
28.3
|
40.6
|
50.5
|
68.6
|
90.1
|
75.9
|
3.1
|
406.3
|
|
2003
|
.9
|
12.0
|
15.2
|
19.4
|
28.4
|
41.9
|
52.9
|
72.0
|
95.3
|
79.7
|
3.9
|
421.6
|
|
2004
|
.7
|
11.4
|
15.4
|
19.3
|
27.2
|
41.3
|
53.7
|
73.4
|
99.5
|
81.9
|
4.8
|
428.7
|
|
2005
|
1.1
|
12.2
|
16.3
|
18.7
|
27.4
|
39.5
|
51.6
|
71.4
|
96.4
|
80.7
|
7.2
|
422.6
|
|
2006
|
.9
|
11.1
|
15.6
|
17.2
|
25.8
|
36.9
|
49.8
|
70.9
|
95.6
|
83.7
|
8.4
|
415.7
|
|
2007
|
1.0
|
10.9
|
15.6
|
16.9
|
25.3
|
35.4
|
49.1
|
71.5
|
95.5
|
88.2
|
9.7
|
419.2
|
|
2008
|
1.1
|
11.3
|
16.3
|
17.6
|
25.6
|
35.1
|
49.7
|
73.6
|
98.3
|
94.7
|
11.0
|
434.3
|
|
2009
|
1.4
|
12.4
|
17.4
|
19.1
|
26.2
|
35.9
|
51.0
|
76.4
|
102.7
|
100.8
|
12.6
|
455.8
|
|
2010
|
1.2
|
11.9
|
16.4
|
18.8
|
24.8
|
34.8
|
49.5
|
76.8
|
105.5
|
104.7
|
13.0
|
457.3
|
|
2011
|
.9
|
10.9
|
14.8
|
17.8
|
23.1
|
33.4
|
47.2
|
76.3
|
107.4
|
106.1
|
14.1
|
452.0
|
|
2012
|
.9
|
11.3
|
14.8
|
18.2
|
23.1
|
33.4
|
46.3
|
77.1
|
110.4
|
108.1
|
15.2
|
458.8
|
|
2013
|
.9
|
11.5
|
14.8
|
18.5
|
23.5
|
33.1
|
45.4
|
77.6
|
113.0
|
110.8
|
15.7
|
464.8
|
|
2014
|
.9
|
11.6
|
15.1
|
18.6
|
24.1
|
32.6
|
44.8
|
77.6
|
115.3
|
114.4
|
16.0
|
470.9
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
.4
|
2.9
|
4.5
|
5.8
|
7.0
|
9.3
|
13.6
|
21.9
|
33.5
|
28.5
|
1.8
|
129.1
|
|
1985
|
.2
|
3.3
|
6.8
|
8.8
|
10.0
|
11.5
|
14.4
|
21.1
|
29.6
|
27.8
|
1.5
|
135.0
|
|
1990
|
.4
|
4.1
|
8.3
|
11.6
|
14.3
|
17.7
|
20.1
|
25.4
|
33.9
|
31.0
|
1.7
|
168.5
|
|
1995
|
.4
|
4.9
|
10.5
|
17.7
|
25.1
|
30.6
|
36.8
|
44.6
|
52.6
|
41.8
|
2.2
|
267.1
|
|
1996
|
.4
|
4.4
|
9.8
|
16.7
|
25.1
|
31.6
|
38.3
|
47.0
|
53.0
|
40.3
|
2.1
|
268.8
|
|
1997
|
.4
|
4.4
|
9.0
|
15.0
|
23.4
|
30.9
|
36.7
|
47.3
|
52.9
|
38.9
|
2.0
|
260.9
|
|
1998
|
.4
|
4.8
|
9.3
|
14.9
|
24.2
|
32.5
|
39.4
|
51.0
|
56.6
|
40.4
|
1.9
|
275.4
|
|
1999
|
.4
|
5.5
|
9.8
|
14.3
|
24.2
|
33.4
|
40.7
|
51.7
|
58.7
|
42.3
|
2.0
|
283.0
|
|
2000
|
.5
|
6.4
|
10.1
|
14.4
|
23.5
|
32.6
|
39.4
|
52.6
|
58.5
|
42.9
|
1.9
|
282.5
|
|
2001
|
.6
|
8.1
|
12.5
|
16.7
|
25.6
|
35.8
|
43.8
|
57.7
|
66.0
|
47.4
|
2.0
|
316.1
|
|
2002
|
.6
|
9.6
|
13.5
|
17.7
|
26.6
|
38.8
|
48.2
|
61.6
|
72.0
|
52.9
|
2.2
|
343.7
|
|
2003
|
.6
|
8.7
|
13.4
|
18.7
|
26.6
|
39.5
|
49.8
|
63.7
|
76.3
|
56.1
|
2.6
|
355.9
|
|
2004
|
.5
|
8.3
|
13.8
|
18.8
|
25.9
|
39.5
|
50.8
|
66.5
|
80.5
|
59.2
|
3.3
|
367.1
|
|
2005
|
.8
|
8.9
|
14.5
|
18.2
|
26.1
|
38.0
|
49.7
|
64.5
|
80.5
|
59.3
|
5.1
|
365.7
|
|
2006
|
.6
|
8.1
|
13.9
|
17.0
|
25.1
|
35.8
|
48.5
|
64.3
|
81.2
|
62.0
|
5.9
|
362.4
|
|
2007
|
.7
|
8.1
|
14.0
|
16.9
|
25.0
|
34.6
|
48.2
|
65.3
|
82.5
|
66.3
|
6.9
|
368.3
|
|
2008
|
.8
|
8.5
|
14.5
|
17.6
|
25.4
|
34.5
|
49.0
|
67.4
|
85.8
|
71.9
|
8.0
|
383.3
|
|
2009
|
1.0
|
9.6
|
15.6
|
19.0
|
26.1
|
35.2
|
50.2
|
70.1
|
90.2
|
77.0
|
9.0
|
403.1
|
|
2010
|
.9
|
9.0
|
14.7
|
18.9
|
24.9
|
34.6
|
49.0
|
71.0
|
93.2
|
80.6
|
9.3
|
406.1
|
|
2011
|
.6
|
8.1
|
13.3
|
18.1
|
23.5
|
33.8
|
46.9
|
71.1
|
95.4
|
82.7
|
10.1
|
403.7
|
|
2012
|
.6
|
8.4
|
13.4
|
18.6
|
23.7
|
34.2
|
46.2
|
72.1
|
98.9
|
85.5
|
11.1
|
412.6
|
|
2013
|
.6
|
8.6
|
13.6
|
18.9
|
24.1
|
34.2
|
45.6
|
72.9
|
101.9
|
88.8
|
11.6
|
420.7
|
|
2014
|
.6
|
8.7
|
13.9
|
19.0
|
24.8
|
33.9
|
45.3
|
73.2
|
104.9
|
92.4
|
12.0
|
428.6
|
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
1.3
|
10.6
|
14.7
|
18.6
|
22.7
|
29.4
|
41.8
|
67.7
|
106.5
|
100.3
|
6.7
|
420.3
|
|
1985
|
.6
|
11.1
|
22.3
|
27.1
|
30.7
|
34.1
|
41.8
|
61.1
|
90.8
|
91.5
|
5.1
|
416.1
|
|
1990
|
1.1
|
12.5
|
25.2
|
35.1
|
41.4
|
47.3
|
51.0
|
65.1
|
93.3
|
95.3
|
5.0
|
472.1
|
|
1995
|
1.0
|
12.9
|
26.8
|
45.4
|
61.8
|
71.9
|
82.9
|
99.4
|
125.9
|
111.7
|
6.0
|
645.6
|
|
1996
|
1.0
|
11.6
|
24.2
|
40.6
|
58.6
|
70.5
|
82.7
|
101.6
|
122.7
|
105.2
|
5.4
|
624.3
|
|
1997
|
1.0
|
11.3
|
21.1
|
34.1
|
51.3
|
65.6
|
76.5
|
100.1
|
121.4
|
100.2
|
5.1
|
587.7
|
|
1998
|
1.0
|
11.9
|
21.2
|
32.9
|
51.5
|
68.2
|
81.2
|
106.5
|
127.2
|
101.8
|
5.0
|
608.4
|
|
1999
|
1.1
|
13.3
|
21.7
|
31.2
|
51.3
|
69.7
|
83.6
|
108.9
|
130.0
|
104.5
|
5.3
|
620.6
|
|
2000
|
1.2
|
15.4
|
22.2
|
30.6
|
49.4
|
68.1
|
81.7
|
111.0
|
130.7
|
105.9
|
5.1
|
621.3
|
|
2001
|
1.6
|
19.9
|
27.1
|
35.2
|
53.2
|
74.1
|
90.0
|
121.7
|
146.6
|
116.1
|
5.2
|
690.5
|
|
2002
|
1.6
|
23.5
|
28.8
|
36.6
|
54.8
|
79.4
|
98.8
|
130.2
|
162.1
|
128.8
|
5.3
|
750.0
|
|
2003
|
1.4
|
20.6
|
28.6
|
38.1
|
55.0
|
81.4
|
102.7
|
135.7
|
171.6
|
135.8
|
6.4
|
777.5
|
|
2004
|
1.2
|
19.7
|
29.2
|
38.2
|
53.1
|
80.8
|
104.5
|
139.8
|
180.0
|
141.1
|
8.1
|
795.8
|
|
2005
|
1.9
|
21.2
|
30.8
|
36.9
|
53.5
|
77.5
|
101.4
|
135.9
|
176.9
|
140.0
|
12.3
|
788.2
|
|
2006
|
1.6
|
19.2
|
29.4
|
34.1
|
50.9
|
72.6
|
98.3
|
135.2
|
176.8
|
145.7
|
14.3
|
778.1
|
|
2007
|
1.6
|
19.0
|
29.6
|
33.8
|
50.3
|
70.0
|
97.3
|
136.7
|
178.1
|
154.4
|
16.6
|
787.5
|
|
2008
|
1.9
|
19.8
|
30.8
|
35.2
|
50.9
|
69.6
|
98.7
|
141.0
|
184.1
|
166.7
|
19.0
|
817.6
|
|
2009
|
2.4
|
22.0
|
33.0
|
38.2
|
52.3
|
71.1
|
101.2
|
146.5
|
192.9
|
177.8
|
21.5
|
858.9
|
|
2010
|
2.1
|
20.9
|
31.0
|
37.6
|
49.7
|
69.5
|
98.5
|
147.9
|
198.6
|
185.3
|
22.4
|
863.5
|
|
2011
|
1.5
|
19.1
|
28.2
|
35.9
|
46.6
|
67.2
|
94.1
|
147.4
|
202.9
|
188.8
|
24.2
|
855.8
|
|
2012
|
1.5
|
19.6
|
28.2
|
36.8
|
46.8
|
67.6
|
92.5
|
149.2
|
209.3
|
193.6
|
26.3
|
871.4
|
|
2013
|
1.5
|
20.1
|
28.5
|
37.3
|
47.6
|
67.3
|
90.9
|
150.5
|
214.9
|
199.6
|
27.3
|
885.4
|
|
2014
|
1.5
|
20.3
|
29.0
|
37.6
|
48.9
|
66.5
|
90.0
|
150.9
|
220.1
|
206.8
|
28.0
|
899.5
|
| 1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA." |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.