Short-Range Actuarial Projections
of the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance Program, 2005

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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos
and Richard B. Tucker

III.A10.—DI Disabled Worker Total Termination Rates1
(Terminations per thousand beneficiaries, by age and gender, calendar years 1980-2014)
Year
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-NRA2
Total
 
Male
1980
107.01
89.43
84.67
81.10
96.98
104.93
100.25
92.40
83.16
70.54
69.25
83.39
1985
73.42
59.21
55.42
48.79
42.69
48.16
56.69
62.91
68.58
71.75
85.40
63.88
1990
43.52
55.65
64.99
60.53
56.48
50.07
52.62
58.00
63.16
71.59
79.56
62.17
1995
53.59
59.58
65.08
72.73
63.96
56.83
50.23
51.87
54.71
62.88
97.54
59.14
1996
62.88
61.81
62.00
65.86
57.91
51.15
47.83
47.95
51.32
61.87
92.62
55.44
1997
67.58
70.96
78.59
79.76
78.30
74.90
68.19
58.50
54.84
60.86
97.50
65.98
1998
48.10
58.09
57.40
50.13
45.12
42.47
42.96
43.16
48.16
57.87
92.63
49.28
1999
39.37
53.72
60.77
54.00
46.60
44.50
45.23
45.21
49.69
58.17
91.95
50.79
2000
42.44
49.07
67.06
61.98
55.00
49.24
48.34
47.00
49.11
56.91
98.27
52.84
2001
55.27
40.76
54.27
55.27
48.64
45.07
45.80
45.03
47.88
55.23
86.04
49.68
2002
33.76
37.19
54.49
56.92
49.59
45.99
46.31
46.07
47.04
54.69
87.37
49.87
2003
40.15
33.68
46.13
48.65
45.17
42.42
43.53
43.42
44.86
52.50
99.21
47.20
2004
42.52
37.58
44.91
46.43
43.94
42.64
42.77
44.21
43.85
51.02
109.98
46.80
2005
43.31
37.80
45.08
46.56
43.92
42.42
42.40
43.64
43.22
50.04
90.64
46.83
2006
44.80
38.90
46.73
48.11
45.08
43.16
42.84
43.73
43.08
49.59
87.89
47.28
2007
46.32
39.79
48.27
49.53
46.09
43.80
43.17
43.71
42.82
49.02
85.25
47.67
2008
47.84
41.56
50.78
51.88
48.02
45.37
44.41
44.61
43.46
49.55
83.88
48.89
2009
48.61
41.95
51.91
52.91
48.66
45.65
44.34
44.20
42.79
48.78
92.96
49.18
2010
49.75
43.11
53.23
54.18
49.93
46.83
45.41
45.17
43.70
49.61
90.99
49.98
2011
47.31
41.47
52.08
52.95
48.42
44.88
43.14
42.55
40.84
46.59
87.05
47.66
2012
47.41
42.44
53.40
54.18
49.39
45.40
43.36
42.43
40.49
46.02
86.93
47.84
2013
46.99
42.38
53.16
53.90
49.14
45.02
42.94
41.90
39.92
45.31
88.06
47.42
2014
46.65
42.26
52.92
53.66
48.89
44.68
42.51
41.37
39.33
44.60
86.31
46.84
 
Female
1980
98.49
83.10
72.39
76.08
90.11
97.80
96.33
74.60
61.77
45.75
52.99
64.58
1985
16.81
66.57
61.08
49.04
46.61
49.37
55.38
53.44
52.55
50.48
53.51
51.81
1990
78.59
52.54
49.56
42.42
40.11
43.07
46.74
49.29
48.92
51.74
52.97
48.07
1995
41.14
52.61
50.54
45.25
40.94
40.40
40.39
40.87
41.90
45.89
70.35
43.30
1996
59.84
54.38
50.65
45.46
40.75
38.70
39.43
39.08
39.56
44.29
65.62
41.74
1997
55.46
62.01
57.60
55.65
52.28
48.23
45.10
41.63
39.73
43.35
67.12
45.49
1998
35.97
58.99
47.63
42.53
38.59
38.35
38.54
37.97
37.51
42.25
68.15
40.09
1999
43.62
54.27
51.58
42.30
39.41
37.65
38.89
37.94
37.49
42.30
66.29
40.11
2000
31.61
44.54
55.18
50.28
43.80
41.78
40.47
39.18
37.85
41.44
68.63
41.57
2001
30.34
39.90
46.27
43.53
39.54
38.54
37.83
36.53
36.89
40.08
63.41
38.98
2002
35.36
35.42
45.93
44.86
41.47
39.61
39.23
37.03
36.46
39.67
66.38
39.39
2003
30.27
32.13
42.96
40.92
36.72
35.63
35.39
34.66
34.97
38.67
73.10
37.10
2004
19.10
33.69
38.71
38.71
35.44
35.68
35.14
34.58
34.23
37.16
75.41
36.36
2005
18.19
33.83
38.83
38.87
35.51
35.63
34.99
34.31
33.88
36.63
61.35
36.33
2006
17.97
34.78
40.14
40.17
36.52
36.36
35.51
34.56
33.92
36.42
59.49
36.73
2007
18.10
35.56
41.32
41.36
37.37
37.00
35.93
34.70
33.84
36.09
57.60
37.03
2008
18.84
37.28
43.46
43.46
39.12
38.55
37.27
35.75
34.66
36.78
56.64
38.17
2009
18.15
37.64
44.26
44.24
39.59
38.77
37.28
35.50
34.18
36.17
63.13
38.33
2010
19.45
38.88
45.59
45.56
40.91
39.99
38.46
36.61
35.24
37.16
61.76
39.25
2011
17.24
37.12
44.19
44.13
39.21
38.03
36.28
34.15
32.56
34.29
58.97
36.94
2012
17.59
37.94
45.28
45.16
40.00
38.56
36.59
34.18
32.38
33.92
58.97
37.09
2013
17.48
37.85
45.11
44.91
39.80
38.28
36.27
33.79
31.95
33.42
59.69
36.75
2014
17.35
37.72
44.94
44.69
39.60
38.00
35.94
33.40
31.51
32.92
58.65
36.29
 
Total
1980
104.66
87.77
81.13
79.66
94.97
102.83
99.05
86.67
75.99
62.22
63.85
77.32
1985
58.76
61.29
57.05
48.86
43.88
48.54
56.27
59.84
63.22
64.59
74.50
59.95
1990
54.92
54.67
60.14
54.80
51.11
47.75
50.57
54.92
58.15
64.76
70.30
57.35
1995
48.90
57.03
59.86
62.93
55.67
50.69
46.47
47.50
49.70
56.55
87.65
53.15
1996
61.69
59.05
57.79
58.34
51.54
46.36
44.54
44.33
46.59
55.19
82.62
50.12
1997
62.99
67.57
70.59
70.55
68.35
64.41
58.91
51.49
48.62
54.04
86.07
57.82
1998
43.76
58.43
53.55
47.13
42.52
40.80
41.12
40.96
43.66
51.64
83.23
45.51
1999
40.94
53.93
57.06
49.27
43.67
41.66
42.54
42.08
44.43
51.70
81.89
46.32
2000
38.31
47.27
62.15
57.13
50.33
46.10
44.94
43.60
44.18
50.47
86.45
48.04
2001
45.54
40.42
50.89
50.25
44.76
42.28
42.31
41.28
43.00
48.81
76.80
45.04
2002
34.37
36.48
50.80
51.64
46.04
43.21
43.17
42.03
42.30
48.22
78.62
45.27
2003
36.30
33.06
44.75
45.17
41.41
39.40
39.88
39.46
40.41
46.46
88.14
42.71
2004
33.30
36.01
42.21
42.88
40.09
39.49
39.31
39.80
39.50
44.90
95.17
42.10
2005
32.77
36.18
42.35
42.97
40.06
39.31
39.01
39.32
38.97
44.06
77.83
42.06
2006
33.49
37.20
43.85
44.38
41.08
40.01
39.45
39.46
38.88
43.66
75.33
42.45
2007
34.48
38.03
45.24
45.66
41.96
40.60
39.79
39.50
38.65
43.16
72.85
42.76
2008
35.53
39.75
47.57
47.89
43.75
42.13
41.04
40.44
39.35
43.73
71.51
43.90
2009
35.37
40.11
48.54
48.79
44.26
42.36
40.97
40.08
38.73
42.99
79.37
44.09
2010
36.57
41.29
49.85
50.09
45.51
43.52
42.07
41.09
39.69
43.86
77.61
44.92
2011
34.62
39.60
48.58
48.75
43.88
41.53
39.82
38.52
36.90
40.87
74.11
42.57
2012
35.23
40.52
49.78
49.89
44.74
42.02
40.06
38.45
36.61
40.34
73.97
42.71
2013
35.05
40.45
49.55
49.62
44.51
41.66
39.66
37.95
36.09
39.69
74.81
42.30
2014
34.79
40.33
49.32
49.38
44.27
41.32
39.26
37.47
35.57
39.05
73.35
41.75

1Death, recovery, and "other" reasons except conversion to retired worker benefit at normal retirement age.

2Does not reflect termination due to conversion at normal retirement age. See table II.9 for overall disability termination rates

Sources:

Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions


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