Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
2.7
|
$85.39
|
1.0
|
$87.86
|
0.8
|
1.0164
|
$99.20
|
2.9
|
$94.02
|
0.9771
|
$91.87
|
|
1981
|
11.2
|
2.9
|
94.02
|
.9
|
96.36
|
.9
|
1.0119
|
105.79
|
2.9
|
101.65
|
.9856
|
100.19
|
|
1982
|
7.4
|
2.9
|
101.65
|
.8
|
104.59
|
.8
|
.9308
|
101.62
|
2.9
|
104.49
|
.9742
|
101.79
|
|
1983
|
3.5
|
2.9
|
104.49
|
.9
|
110.22
|
.9
|
1.1065
|
119.66
|
2.9
|
105.42
|
.9643
|
101.66
|
|
1984
|
3.5
|
2.9
|
105.42
|
.9
|
107.82
|
.9
|
1.0931
|
119.27
|
3.0
|
105.77
|
.9549
|
101.00
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
3.0
|
105.77
|
.9
|
121.42
|
.8
|
1.1449
|
124.85
|
3.1
|
108.36
|
.9454
|
102.44
|
|
1986
|
1.3
|
3.1
|
108.36
|
.9
|
122.78
|
1.0
|
1.1378
|
124.90
|
3.0
|
108.95
|
.9295
|
101.27
|
|
1987
|
4.2
|
3.0
|
108.95
|
.9
|
123.59
|
.9
|
1.0765
|
122.21
|
3.1
|
114.27
|
.9527
|
108.86
|
|
1988
|
4.0
|
3.1
|
114.27
|
.9
|
113.38
|
.9
|
1.1146
|
132.46
|
3.0
|
114.82
|
.9194
|
105.57
|
|
1989
|
4.7
|
3.0
|
114.82
|
.8
|
124.97
|
.9
|
1.1296
|
135.79
|
3.0
|
118.64
|
.9455
|
112.18
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
3.0
|
118.64
|
.7
|
134.22
|
.9
|
1.1208
|
140.16
|
2.8
|
125.17
|
.9434
|
118.09
|
|
1991
|
3.7
|
2.8
|
125.17
|
.7
|
143.78
|
.8
|
1.1671
|
151.49
|
2.7
|
130.40
|
.9725
|
126.82
|
|
1992
|
3.0
|
2.7
|
130.40
|
.7
|
137.73
|
.8
|
1.1464
|
153.98
|
2.6
|
132.49
|
1.0195
|
135.08
|
|
1993
|
2.6
|
2.6
|
132.49
|
.8
|
139.41
|
.7
|
1.0817
|
147.04
|
2.7
|
135.25
|
1.0348
|
139.96
|
|
1994
|
2.8
|
2.7
|
135.25
|
.8
|
134.24
|
.7
|
.9378
|
130.39
|
2.7
|
139.98
|
1.0378
|
145.27
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
139.98
|
.8
|
153.92
|
.7
|
1.0065
|
144.55
|
2.8
|
146.23
|
1.0663
|
155.92
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
2.8
|
146.23
|
.8
|
169.67
|
.7
|
1.0786
|
162.29
|
2.9
|
152.72
|
1.0669
|
162.94
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
2.9
|
152.72
|
.7
|
161.42
|
.7
|
1.0300
|
160.61
|
2.8
|
156.11
|
1.0747
|
167.77
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
2.8
|
156.11
|
.8
|
174.83
|
.7
|
1.0352
|
163.71
|
2.9
|
161.12
|
1.0601
|
170.81
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
2.9
|
161.12
|
.8
|
179.03
|
.7
|
1.0108
|
166.93
|
3.0
|
168.56
|
1.0589
|
178.48
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
3.0
|
168.56
|
.9
|
187.80
|
.8
|
.9658
|
168.50
|
3.1
|
180.10
|
1.0448
|
188.16
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
3.1
|
180.10
|
1.0
|
195.06
|
.8
|
.9894
|
182.83
|
3.3
|
188.61
|
1.0456
|
197.21
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
3.3
|
188.61
|
1.2
|
180.88
|
1.0
|
1.0314
|
197.26
|
3.5
|
187.01
|
1.0613
|
198.47
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
3.5
|
187.01
|
1.2
|
197.09
|
.9
|
1.0273
|
196.15
|
3.8
|
192.56
|
1.0807
|
208.10
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
3.8
|
192.56
|
1.5
|
195.19
|
.9
|
.9991
|
197.57
|
4.3
|
197.41
|
1.0740
|
212.01
|
|
2005-I
|
...
|
4.3
|
197.41
|
.4
|
197.01
|
.3
|
1.0140
|
200.17
|
4.4
|
197.20
|
1.0565
|
208.34
|
|
2005-II
|
...
|
4.4
|
197.20
|
.4
|
196.61
|
.3
|
.9560
|
188.52
|
4.5
|
197.75
|
1.0584
|
209.30
|
|
2005-III
|
...
|
4.5
|
197.75
|
.4
|
196.22
|
.3
|
1.0520
|
208.03
|
4.6
|
197.01
|
1.0594
|
208.71
|
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
4.6
|
197.01
|
.3
|
199.74
|
.3
|
.9810
|
197.15
|
4.6
|
201.07
|
1.0583
|
212.80
|
|
2006-I
|
...
|
4.6
|
201.07
|
.4
|
200.06
|
.3
|
1.0140
|
203.89
|
4.8
|
200.81
|
1.0565
|
212.15
|
|
2006-II
|
...
|
4.8
|
200.81
|
.4
|
200.38
|
.3
|
.9560
|
191.97
|
4.9
|
201.33
|
1.0584
|
213.09
|
|
2006-III
|
...
|
4.9
|
201.33
|
.4
|
200.71
|
.3
|
1.0520
|
211.80
|
5.0
|
200.61
|
1.0594
|
212.53
|
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
5.0
|
200.61
|
.4
|
205.45
|
.3
|
.9810
|
201.14
|
5.0
|
205.28
|
1.0583
|
217.25
|
|
2007-I
|
...
|
5.0
|
205.28
|
.5
|
206.04
|
.3
|
1.0140
|
208.16
|
5.2
|
205.21
|
1.0565
|
216.80
|
|
2007-II
|
...
|
5.2
|
205.21
|
.5
|
206.63
|
.3
|
.9560
|
196.18
|
5.3
|
205.91
|
1.0584
|
217.93
|
|
2007-III
|
...
|
5.3
|
205.91
|
.5
|
207.22
|
.3
|
1.0520
|
216.62
|
5.4
|
205.34
|
1.0594
|
217.54
|
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
5.4
|
205.34
|
.4
|
213.42
|
.4
|
.9810
|
206.89
|
5.5
|
211.36
|
1.0583
|
223.68
|
|
2008-I
|
...
|
5.5
|
211.36
|
.5
|
214.31
|
.4
|
1.0140
|
214.32
|
5.7
|
211.45
|
1.0565
|
223.39
|
|
2008-II
|
...
|
5.7
|
211.45
|
.5
|
215.20
|
.4
|
.9560
|
202.14
|
5.8
|
212.38
|
1.0584
|
224.79
|
|
2008-III
|
...
|
5.8
|
212.38
|
.5
|
216.09
|
.4
|
1.0520
|
223.43
|
6.0
|
211.97
|
1.0594
|
224.57
|
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
6.0
|
211.97
|
.5
|
223.06
|
.4
|
.9810
|
213.79
|
6.1
|
218.61
|
1.0583
|
231.36
|
|
2009-I
|
...
|
6.1
|
218.61
|
.6
|
223.95
|
.4
|
1.0140
|
221.67
|
6.3
|
218.94
|
1.0565
|
231.31
|
|
2009-II
|
...
|
6.3
|
218.94
|
.6
|
224.84
|
.4
|
.9560
|
209.30
|
6.5
|
220.07
|
1.0584
|
232.92
|
|
2009-III
|
...
|
6.5
|
220.07
|
.6
|
225.72
|
.4
|
1.0520
|
231.52
|
6.7
|
219.86
|
1.0594
|
232.92
|
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
6.7
|
219.86
|
.6
|
232.96
|
.4
|
.9810
|
221.74
|
6.8
|
226.93
|
1.0583
|
240.15
|
|
2010-I
|
...
|
6.8
|
226.93
|
.6
|
234.07
|
.4
|
1.0140
|
230.10
|
7.0
|
227.35
|
1.0565
|
240.20
|
|
2010-II
|
...
|
7.0
|
227.35
|
.6
|
235.19
|
.5
|
.9560
|
217.35
|
7.2
|
228.67
|
1.0584
|
242.02
|
|
2010-III
|
...
|
7.2
|
228.67
|
.6
|
236.30
|
.5
|
1.0520
|
240.56
|
7.3
|
228.55
|
1.0594
|
242.13
|
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
7.3
|
228.55
|
.6
|
244.06
|
.5
|
.9810
|
230.50
|
7.4
|
235.96
|
1.0583
|
249.72
|
|
2011-I
|
...
|
7.4
|
235.96
|
.6
|
245.28
|
.5
|
1.0140
|
239.27
|
7.6
|
236.48
|
1.0565
|
249.84
|
|
2011-II
|
...
|
7.6
|
236.48
|
.6
|
246.49
|
.5
|
.9560
|
226.07
|
7.7
|
237.95
|
1.0584
|
251.84
|
|
2011-III
|
...
|
7.7
|
237.95
|
.6
|
247.71
|
.5
|
1.0520
|
250.32
|
7.8
|
237.89
|
1.0594
|
252.02
|
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
7.8
|
237.89
|
.6
|
255.89
|
.5
|
.9810
|
239.92
|
7.9
|
245.70
|
1.0583
|
260.02
|
|
2012-I
|
...
|
7.9
|
245.70
|
.6
|
256.94
|
.5
|
1.0140
|
249.14
|
8.0
|
246.36
|
1.0565
|
260.28
|
|
2012-II
|
...
|
8.0
|
246.36
|
.6
|
257.99
|
.5
|
.9560
|
235.52
|
8.1
|
247.96
|
1.0584
|
262.44
|
|
2012-III
|
...
|
8.1
|
247.96
|
.6
|
259.04
|
.5
|
1.0520
|
260.85
|
8.2
|
247.98
|
1.0594
|
262.71
|
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
8.2
|
247.98
|
.6
|
267.37
|
.5
|
.9810
|
250.10
|
8.3
|
256.14
|
1.0583
|
271.07
|
|
2013-I
|
...
|
8.3
|
256.14
|
.6
|
268.42
|
.5
|
1.0140
|
259.73
|
8.4
|
256.88
|
1.0565
|
271.40
|
|
2013-II
|
...
|
8.4
|
256.88
|
.6
|
269.48
|
.5
|
.9560
|
245.58
|
8.5
|
258.53
|
1.0584
|
273.63
|
|
2013-III
|
...
|
8.5
|
258.53
|
.6
|
270.54
|
.5
|
1.0520
|
271.97
|
8.6
|
258.57
|
1.0594
|
273.93
|
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
8.6
|
258.57
|
.6
|
279.20
|
.6
|
.9810
|
260.77
|
8.6
|
267.08
|
1.0583
|
282.65
|
|
2014-I
|
...
|
8.6
|
267.08
|
.7
|
280.24
|
.6
|
1.0140
|
270.82
|
8.7
|
267.83
|
1.0565
|
282.96
|
|
2014-II
|
...
|
8.7
|
267.83
|
.7
|
281.28
|
.6
|
.9560
|
256.05
|
8.8
|
269.59
|
1.0584
|
285.33
|
|
2014-III
|
...
|
8.8
|
269.59
|
.7
|
282.32
|
.6
|
1.0520
|
283.61
|
8.9
|
269.59
|
1.0594
|
285.61
|
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
8.9
|
269.59
|
.6
|
291.30
|
.6
|
.9810
|
271.89
|
8.9
|
278.47
|
1.0583
|
294.70
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.