Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of year |
Awards
during year |
Terminations
during year |
In force
end of year |
Current-payment status end of year
|
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of year |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of year |
Average
benefit |
||
Male
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
14.3
|
10,569.0
|
$331.38
|
942.1
|
$425.00
|
681.4
|
0.8934
|
$338.39
|
10,829.7
|
$385.33
|
0.9866
|
$380.18
|
1985
|
3.1
|
11,867.6
|
521.60
|
982.6
|
525.65
|
733.5
|
.8460
|
454.98
|
12,116.0
|
541.80
|
.9937
|
538.37
|
1990
|
5.4
|
13,029.7
|
642.38
|
967.0
|
688.99
|
748.2
|
.8802
|
595.97
|
13,248.3
|
682.52
|
.9952
|
679.27
|
1995
|
2.6
|
14,033.0
|
788.59
|
923.9
|
815.15
|
794.0
|
.9085
|
735.07
|
14,163.8
|
813.64
|
.9958
|
810.21
|
1996
|
2.9
|
14,163.8
|
813.64
|
902.0
|
844.35
|
799.1
|
.9163
|
767.20
|
14,267.6
|
841.61
|
.9958
|
838.11
|
1997
|
2.1
|
14,267.6
|
841.61
|
895.7
|
872.45
|
804.5
|
.9191
|
789.80
|
14,359.0
|
864.00
|
.9959
|
860.47
|
1998
|
1.3
|
14,359.0
|
864.00
|
894.9
|
893.89
|
813.8
|
.9189
|
804.26
|
14,440.0
|
880.39
|
.9961
|
876.93
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
14,440.0
|
880.39
|
940.4
|
940.03
|
825.2
|
.9377
|
846.19
|
14,556.2
|
908.02
|
.9963
|
904.62
|
2000
|
3.5
|
14,556.2
|
908.02
|
1,116.5
|
1,023.53
|
825.1
|
.9179
|
862.64
|
14,845.1
|
950.39
|
1.0007
|
951.05
|
2001
|
2.6
|
14,845.1
|
950.39
|
982.1
|
1,034.95
|
828.6
|
.9120
|
889.33
|
14,998.3
|
983.76
|
1.0008
|
984.58
|
2002
|
1.4
|
14,998.3
|
983.76
|
1,001.1
|
1,077.24
|
831.1
|
1.0273
|
1,024.81
|
15,167.1
|
1,001.30
|
1.0065
|
1,007.81
|
2003
|
2.1
|
15,167.1
|
1,001.30
|
969.2
|
1,111.58
|
818.8
|
.8217
|
840.06
|
15,317.9
|
1,037.72
|
1.0009
|
1,038.68
|
2004
|
2.7
|
15,317.9
|
1,037.72
|
1,009.5
|
1,134.39
|
820.6
|
.9147
|
974.84
|
15,506.0
|
1,075.02
|
1.0010
|
1,076.11
|
2005
|
2.0
|
15,506.0
|
1,075.02
|
1,034.8
|
1,155.04
|
829.7
|
.9498
|
1,041.47
|
15,708.7
|
1,103.28
|
1.0010
|
1,104.71
|
2006
|
2.2
|
15,708.7
|
1,103.28
|
1,087.0
|
1,189.29
|
828.9
|
.9569
|
1,079.00
|
15,966.8
|
1,134.28
|
1.0010
|
1,135.69
|
2007
|
2.7
|
15,966.8
|
1,134.28
|
1,158.5
|
1,229.23
|
837.7
|
.9534
|
1,110.57
|
16,287.6
|
1,172.27
|
1.0010
|
1,173.74
|
2008
|
2.8
|
16,287.6
|
1,172.27
|
1,243.4
|
1,269.72
|
856.1
|
.9417
|
1,134.80
|
16,674.9
|
1,213.53
|
1.0010
|
1,215.03
|
2009
|
2.8
|
16,674.9
|
1,213.53
|
1,351.5
|
1,324.51
|
878.2
|
.8949
|
1,116.35
|
17,148.2
|
1,260.29
|
1.0010
|
1,261.85
|
2010
|
2.8
|
17,148.2
|
1,260.29
|
1,400.9
|
1,383.73
|
904.1
|
.8726
|
1,130.46
|
17,645.0
|
1,311.04
|
1.0010
|
1,312.66
|
2011
|
2.8
|
17,645.0
|
1,311.04
|
1,473.9
|
1,445.89
|
931.5
|
.8566
|
1,154.54
|
18,187.3
|
1,365.60
|
1.0010
|
1,367.25
|
2012
|
2.8
|
18,187.3
|
1,365.60
|
1,559.7
|
1,510.89
|
944.5
|
.8629
|
1,211.38
|
18,802.5
|
1,422.38
|
1.0010
|
1,424.12
|
2013
|
2.8
|
18,802.5
|
1,422.38
|
1,619.7
|
1,574.65
|
959.8
|
.8683
|
1,269.71
|
19,462.4
|
1,481.06
|
1.0010
|
1,482.87
|
2014
|
2.8
|
19,462.4
|
1,481.06
|
1,651.1
|
1,636.70
|
977.1
|
.8738
|
1,330.38
|
20,136.4
|
1,541.22
|
1.0010
|
1,543.13
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
14.3
|
8,872.5
|
257.80
|
670.6
|
276.10
|
347.2
|
.5597
|
164.92
|
9,195.9
|
298.21
|
.9955
|
296.86
|
1985
|
3.1
|
10,438.8
|
397.58
|
699.8
|
331.84
|
415.0
|
.4825
|
197.79
|
10,723.5
|
413.02
|
.9977
|
412.09
|
1990
|
5.4
|
11,732.6
|
488.73
|
687.1
|
424.23
|
466.1
|
.5393
|
277.82
|
11,953.4
|
519.15
|
.9988
|
518.55
|
1995
|
2.6
|
12,712.5
|
601.76
|
684.2
|
518.80
|
536.0
|
.6281
|
387.79
|
12,860.9
|
621.73
|
.9992
|
621.22
|
1996
|
2.9
|
12,860.9
|
621.73
|
678.5
|
539.32
|
547.6
|
.6408
|
409.99
|
12,992.2
|
644.20
|
.9992
|
643.70
|
1997
|
2.1
|
12,992.2
|
644.20
|
822.1
|
592.00
|
560.6
|
.6615
|
435.07
|
13,253.6
|
663.07
|
.9992
|
662.53
|
1998
|
1.3
|
13,253.6
|
663.07
|
735.9
|
584.57
|
585.1
|
.6756
|
453.78
|
13,404.4
|
676.42
|
.9993
|
675.93
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
13,404.4
|
676.42
|
748.8
|
613.82
|
605.2
|
.7074
|
490.45
|
13,548.8
|
698.00
|
.9993
|
697.50
|
2000
|
3.5
|
13,548.8
|
698.00
|
842.8
|
665.29
|
615.7
|
.6706
|
484.46
|
13,776.0
|
729.57
|
1.0004
|
729.89
|
2001
|
2.6
|
13,776.0
|
729.57
|
795.7
|
684.55
|
624.8
|
.6744
|
504.78
|
13,946.8
|
755.81
|
1.0005
|
756.18
|
2002
|
1.4
|
13,946.8
|
755.81
|
811.4
|
713.11
|
628.0
|
.6355
|
487.01
|
14,129.7
|
775.75
|
.9979
|
774.09
|
2003
|
2.1
|
14,129.7
|
775.75
|
822.1
|
740.43
|
625.9
|
.7656
|
606.39
|
14,326.1
|
797.19
|
1.0005
|
797.62
|
2004
|
2.7
|
14,326.1
|
797.19
|
873.5
|
760.96
|
628.7
|
.7085
|
580.06
|
14,569.8
|
825.55
|
1.0007
|
826.09
|
2005
|
2.0
|
14,569.8
|
825.55
|
892.7
|
775.19
|
642.1
|
.8025
|
675.71
|
14,819.7
|
845.24
|
1.0007
|
846.03
|
2006
|
2.2
|
14,819.7
|
845.24
|
932.2
|
801.37
|
628.1
|
.7130
|
615.93
|
15,123.8
|
870.28
|
1.0007
|
871.05
|
2007
|
2.7
|
15,123.8
|
870.28
|
991.3
|
831.27
|
640.8
|
.6933
|
619.62
|
15,474.3
|
901.13
|
1.0007
|
901.93
|
2008
|
2.8
|
15,474.3
|
901.13
|
1,075.7
|
861.18
|
666.7
|
.6753
|
625.54
|
15,883.3
|
934.57
|
1.0007
|
935.39
|
2009
|
2.8
|
15,883.3
|
934.57
|
1,184.0
|
902.80
|
687.5
|
.6264
|
601.80
|
16,379.7
|
971.62
|
1.0007
|
972.47
|
2010
|
2.8
|
16,379.7
|
971.62
|
1,235.5
|
946.33
|
708.3
|
.6023
|
601.61
|
16,907.0
|
1,011.63
|
1.0007
|
1,012.52
|
2011
|
2.8
|
16,907.0
|
1,011.63
|
1,303.0
|
992.60
|
727.5
|
.5864
|
609.84
|
17,482.5
|
1,054.32
|
1.0007
|
1,055.22
|
2012
|
2.8
|
17,482.5
|
1,054.32
|
1,384.0
|
1,042.52
|
739.8
|
.5860
|
635.11
|
18,126.8
|
1,099.00
|
1.0007
|
1,099.95
|
2013
|
2.8
|
18,126.8
|
1,099.00
|
1,441.8
|
1,091.75
|
751.0
|
.5825
|
658.04
|
18,817.5
|
1,145.69
|
1.0007
|
1,146.68
|
2014
|
2.8
|
18,817.5
|
1,145.69
|
1,481.3
|
1,138.47
|
762.8
|
.5821
|
685.55
|
19,536.1
|
1,194.01
|
1.0007
|
1,195.06
|
1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.