Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of year |
Accessions
during year |
Terminations
during year |
In force
end of year |
Current-payment
status end of year |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Awards
|
Conversions
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of year |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of year |
Average
benefit |
||
1980
|
14.3
|
1,966.2
|
$201.48
|
227.1
|
34.7
|
$220.20
|
336.2
|
0.8499
|
$195.73
|
1,891.8
|
$235.04
|
1.0009
|
$235.25
|
1981
|
11.2
|
1,891.8
|
235.04
|
228.3
|
14.8
|
231.90
|
322.7
|
.8349
|
218.22
|
1,812.3
|
265.09
|
1.0024
|
265.73
|
1982
|
7.4
|
1,812.3
|
265.09
|
222.7
|
11.4
|
249.83
|
306.8
|
.7955
|
226.48
|
1,739.7
|
290.28
|
1.0040
|
291.44
|
1983
|
3.5
|
1,739.7
|
290.28
|
211.4
|
9.1
|
266.25
|
288.4
|
.8294
|
249.20
|
1,671.8
|
304.77
|
1.0078
|
307.16
|
1984
|
3.5
|
1,671.8
|
304.77
|
202.2
|
10.6
|
280.89
|
280.0
|
.8785
|
277.10
|
1,604.6
|
317.55
|
1.0100
|
320.73
|
1985
|
3.1
|
1,604.6
|
317.55
|
203.6
|
10.9
|
293.16
|
265.1
|
.8879
|
290.68
|
1,554.0
|
328.93
|
1.0112
|
332.61
|
1986
|
1.3
|
1,554.0
|
328.93
|
198.9
|
9.3
|
303.84
|
247.7
|
.9158
|
305.16
|
1,514.6
|
333.75
|
1.0154
|
338.90
|
1987
|
4.2
|
1,514.6
|
333.75
|
191.3
|
10.0
|
321.73
|
245.7
|
.9318
|
324.06
|
1,470.2
|
348.17
|
1.0165
|
353.92
|
1988
|
4.0
|
1,470.2
|
348.17
|
191.6
|
10.5
|
332.04
|
247.2
|
.9443
|
341.91
|
1,425.0
|
361.33
|
1.0183
|
367.96
|
1989
|
4.7
|
1,425.0
|
361.33
|
188.5
|
9.4
|
349.95
|
228.8
|
.9620
|
363.96
|
1,394.1
|
376.65
|
1.0204
|
384.34
|
1990
|
5.4
|
1,394.1
|
376.65
|
188.7
|
9.4
|
367.25
|
209.9
|
.9599
|
381.08
|
1,382.3
|
395.14
|
1.0219
|
403.80
|
1991
|
3.7
|
1,382.3
|
395.14
|
191.4
|
9.8
|
377.68
|
201.9
|
.9458
|
387.56
|
1,381.6
|
408.33
|
1.0212
|
416.98
|
1992
|
3.0
|
1,381.6
|
408.33
|
192.7
|
9.4
|
386.95
|
194.0
|
.9575
|
402.72
|
1,389.7
|
418.18
|
1.0226
|
427.64
|
1993
|
2.6
|
1,389.7
|
418.18
|
199.1
|
9.6
|
397.93
|
193.2
|
.9508
|
407.94
|
1,405.1
|
427.34
|
1.0225
|
436.96
|
1994
|
2.8
|
1,405.1
|
427.34
|
202.5
|
9.2
|
413.11
|
190.7
|
.9477
|
416.32
|
1,426.0
|
438.49
|
1.0234
|
448.73
|
1995
|
2.6
|
1,426.0
|
438.49
|
200.4
|
9.2
|
425.61
|
197.5
|
.9568
|
430.46
|
1,438.2
|
449.02
|
1.0240
|
459.79
|
1996
|
2.9
|
1,438.2
|
449.02
|
195.0
|
8.7
|
447.24
|
197.4
|
.8944
|
413.24
|
1,444.5
|
466.62
|
1.0249
|
478.23
|
1997
|
2.1
|
1,444.5
|
466.62
|
184.8
|
9.5
|
465.55
|
208.0
|
.9538
|
454.41
|
1,430.8
|
478.14
|
1.0250
|
490.09
|
1998
|
1.3
|
1,430.8
|
478.14
|
182.6
|
8.8
|
479.39
|
199.6
|
.9565
|
463.29
|
1,422.6
|
486.65
|
1.0252
|
498.93
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
1,422.6
|
486.65
|
182.7
|
8.8
|
509.28
|
200.4
|
.9740
|
485.87
|
1,413.7
|
502.07
|
1.0257
|
514.96
|
2000
|
3.5
|
1,413.7
|
502.07
|
184.9
|
8.5
|
536.75
|
199.5
|
.9650
|
501.44
|
1,407.6
|
524.57
|
1.0261
|
538.27
|
2001
|
2.6
|
1,407.6
|
524.57
|
188.0
|
9.3
|
567.35
|
204.0
|
.9484
|
510.42
|
1,401.0
|
546.36
|
1.0229
|
558.86
|
2002
|
1.4
|
1,401.0
|
546.36
|
192.2
|
9.3
|
579.26
|
205.1
|
.9482
|
525.32
|
1,397.5
|
561.86
|
1.0196
|
572.86
|
2003
|
2.1
|
1,397.5
|
561.86
|
187.1
|
9.3
|
598.94
|
200.9
|
.9693
|
556.06
|
1,392.9
|
579.76
|
1.0201
|
591.42
|
2004
|
2.7
|
1,392.9
|
579.76
|
188.4
|
9.5
|
612.40
|
205.0
|
.9643
|
574.13
|
1,385.9
|
600.99
|
1.0210
|
613.60
|
2005
|
2.0
|
1,385.9
|
600.99
|
187.2
|
9.7
|
627.77
|
203.7
|
.9443
|
578.87
|
1,379.1
|
620.16
|
1.0210
|
633.17
|
2006
|
2.2
|
1,379.1
|
620.16
|
186.6
|
9.7
|
647.12
|
207.8
|
.9664
|
612.53
|
1,367.5
|
638.94
|
1.0210
|
652.35
|
2007
|
2.7
|
1,367.5
|
638.94
|
185.4
|
9.8
|
671.56
|
212.5
|
.9684
|
635.46
|
1,350.2
|
661.68
|
1.0210
|
675.57
|
2008
|
2.8
|
1,350.2
|
661.68
|
184.1
|
9.7
|
698.14
|
213.7
|
.9699
|
659.72
|
1,330.3
|
686.11
|
1.0210
|
700.51
|
2009
|
2.8
|
1,330.3
|
686.11
|
183.1
|
9.7
|
726.37
|
209.8
|
.9708
|
684.74
|
1,313.2
|
711.70
|
1.0210
|
726.63
|
2010
|
2.8
|
1,313.2
|
711.70
|
182.1
|
9.6
|
756.74
|
206.3
|
.9725
|
711.52
|
1,298.6
|
738.53
|
1.0210
|
754.03
|
2011
|
2.8
|
1,298.6
|
738.53
|
181.2
|
9.6
|
787.24
|
202.9
|
.9733
|
738.91
|
1,286.6
|
766.56
|
1.0210
|
782.65
|
2012
|
2.8
|
1,286.6
|
766.56
|
180.4
|
9.6
|
817.98
|
199.7
|
.9739
|
767.49
|
1,276.9
|
795.69
|
1.0210
|
812.39
|
2013
|
2.8
|
1,276.9
|
795.69
|
179.7
|
9.6
|
850.26
|
196.5
|
.9742
|
796.90
|
1,269.8
|
826.05
|
1.0210
|
843.38
|
2014
|
2.8
|
1,269.8
|
826.05
|
179.3
|
9.7
|
884.00
|
192.2
|
.9738
|
826.95
|
1,266.6
|
857.75
|
1.0210
|
875.75
|
1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.