Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of year |
Accessions
during year |
Terminations
during year |
In force
end of year |
Current-payment
status end of year |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Awards
|
Conversions
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of year |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of year |
Average
benefit |
||
1980
|
14.3
|
267.2
|
$195.77
|
10.6
|
13.0
|
$229.10
|
12.4
|
0.8014
|
$179.32
|
278.4
|
$226.21
|
1.0007
|
$226.36
|
1981
|
11.2
|
278.4
|
226.21
|
9.7
|
12.8
|
250.13
|
9.8
|
.7573
|
190.51
|
291.1
|
253.49
|
1.0018
|
253.96
|
1982
|
7.4
|
291.1
|
253.49
|
9.7
|
11.0
|
267.53
|
9.2
|
.6020
|
163.89
|
302.6
|
275.21
|
1.0022
|
275.82
|
1983
|
3.5
|
302.6
|
275.21
|
11.2
|
11.0
|
288.55
|
9.5
|
.7699
|
219.31
|
315.4
|
287.08
|
1.0067
|
288.99
|
1984
|
3.5
|
315.4
|
287.08
|
12.6
|
11.7
|
300.30
|
9.2
|
.8132
|
241.62
|
330.5
|
298.90
|
1.0122
|
302.53
|
1985
|
3.1
|
330.5
|
298.90
|
12.9
|
10.8
|
310.24
|
9.0
|
.6986
|
215.29
|
345.2
|
310.73
|
1.0153
|
315.48
|
1986
|
1.3
|
345.2
|
310.73
|
13.4
|
10.3
|
318.74
|
8.5
|
.6973
|
219.50
|
360.4
|
317.28
|
1.0180
|
322.99
|
1987
|
4.2
|
360.4
|
317.28
|
12.0
|
10.5
|
326.60
|
8.6
|
.6983
|
230.86
|
374.4
|
332.65
|
1.0222
|
340.04
|
1988
|
4.0
|
374.4
|
332.65
|
11.3
|
11.5
|
342.20
|
10.8
|
.6316
|
218.51
|
386.4
|
349.30
|
1.0231
|
357.36
|
1989
|
4.7
|
386.4
|
349.30
|
10.8
|
11.7
|
366.29
|
9.1
|
.7960
|
291.13
|
399.8
|
367.45
|
1.0290
|
378.11
|
1990
|
5.4
|
399.8
|
367.45
|
11.1
|
11.4
|
391.58
|
10.0
|
.7550
|
292.41
|
412.2
|
389.83
|
1.0325
|
402.49
|
1991
|
3.7
|
412.2
|
389.83
|
11.6
|
11.5
|
403.10
|
10.1
|
.7250
|
293.09
|
425.1
|
406.83
|
1.0360
|
421.47
|
1992
|
3.0
|
425.1
|
406.83
|
13.7
|
11.7
|
415.06
|
9.9
|
.6991
|
292.95
|
440.6
|
421.65
|
1.0394
|
438.26
|
1993
|
2.6
|
440.6
|
421.65
|
13.7
|
11.9
|
425.88
|
10.2
|
.7201
|
311.53
|
456.0
|
434.95
|
1.0431
|
453.71
|
1994
|
2.8
|
456.0
|
434.95
|
12.5
|
12.4
|
442.70
|
10.9
|
.7337
|
328.05
|
470.0
|
449.66
|
1.0470
|
470.81
|
1995
|
2.6
|
470.0
|
449.66
|
11.9
|
12.6
|
464.49
|
11.0
|
.7836
|
361.53
|
483.5
|
463.78
|
1.0509
|
487.38
|
1996
|
2.9
|
483.5
|
463.78
|
11.0
|
12.6
|
481.66
|
11.3
|
.7930
|
378.44
|
495.8
|
479.69
|
1.0550
|
506.08
|
1997
|
2.1
|
495.8
|
479.69
|
10.6
|
12.8
|
492.48
|
12.0
|
.7946
|
389.19
|
507.1
|
492.28
|
1.0589
|
521.25
|
1998
|
1.3
|
507.1
|
492.28
|
10.9
|
13.2
|
502.27
|
13.1
|
.8127
|
405.27
|
518.0
|
501.21
|
1.0630
|
532.80
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
518.0
|
501.21
|
11.4
|
13.6
|
519.33
|
14.7
|
.8903
|
457.40
|
528.3
|
515.57
|
1.0676
|
550.41
|
2000
|
3.5
|
528.3
|
515.57
|
11.5
|
14.5
|
539.44
|
17.1
|
.8839
|
471.67
|
537.2
|
535.88
|
1.0725
|
574.73
|
2001
|
2.6
|
537.2
|
535.88
|
11.8
|
14.5
|
566.57
|
16.1
|
.8792
|
483.40
|
547.3
|
552.56
|
1.0772
|
595.21
|
2002
|
1.4
|
547.3
|
552.56
|
12.7
|
13.1
|
560.10
|
19.8
|
.6968
|
390.44
|
553.3
|
566.38
|
1.0742
|
608.43
|
2003
|
2.1
|
553.3
|
566.38
|
12.9
|
15.2
|
564.68
|
19.0
|
.8490
|
490.97
|
562.4
|
580.54
|
1.0785
|
626.10
|
2004
|
2.7
|
562.4
|
580.54
|
14.0
|
15.5
|
564.33
|
20.1
|
.8657
|
516.12
|
571.7
|
597.39
|
1.0845
|
647.88
|
2005
|
2.0
|
571.7
|
597.39
|
13.4
|
15.2
|
578.49
|
19.8
|
.8103
|
493.73
|
580.6
|
611.75
|
1.0845
|
663.45
|
2006
|
2.2
|
580.6
|
611.75
|
13.3
|
15.4
|
596.33
|
20.2
|
.8208
|
513.15
|
589.1
|
627.64
|
1.0845
|
680.69
|
2007
|
2.7
|
589.1
|
627.64
|
13.3
|
15.7
|
618.84
|
20.6
|
.8276
|
533.43
|
597.5
|
647.17
|
1.0845
|
701.87
|
2008
|
2.8
|
597.5
|
647.17
|
13.4
|
15.9
|
643.34
|
21.0
|
.8344
|
555.09
|
605.8
|
668.05
|
1.0845
|
724.52
|
2009
|
2.8
|
605.8
|
668.05
|
13.4
|
16.0
|
669.35
|
21.4
|
.8415
|
577.89
|
613.8
|
689.71
|
1.0845
|
748.01
|
2010
|
2.8
|
613.8
|
689.71
|
13.4
|
16.1
|
697.34
|
21.8
|
.8496
|
602.36
|
621.5
|
712.20
|
1.0845
|
772.40
|
2011
|
2.8
|
621.5
|
712.20
|
13.4
|
16.2
|
725.45
|
22.2
|
.8556
|
626.40
|
628.9
|
735.56
|
1.0845
|
797.73
|
2012
|
2.8
|
628.9
|
735.56
|
13.3
|
16.3
|
753.78
|
22.6
|
.8603
|
650.52
|
635.9
|
759.79
|
1.0845
|
824.01
|
2013
|
2.8
|
635.9
|
759.79
|
13.2
|
16.4
|
783.52
|
22.9
|
.8654
|
675.90
|
642.5
|
784.93
|
1.0845
|
851.27
|
2014
|
2.8
|
642.5
|
784.93
|
13.1
|
16.5
|
814.61
|
23.3
|
.8707
|
702.59
|
648.7
|
811.01
|
1.0845
|
879.56
|
1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.