Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of year |
Accessions
during year |
Terminations
during year |
In force
end of year |
Current-payment
status end of year |
|||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Awards
|
Conversions
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of year |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of year |
Average
benefit |
||
1980
|
14.3
|
524.8
|
$225.24
|
300.5
|
16.6
|
$253.10
|
307.6
|
0.9412
|
$242.30
|
534.4
|
$263.59
|
1.0070
|
$265.44
|
1981
|
11.2
|
534.4
|
263.59
|
295.4
|
14.2
|
284.99
|
306.0
|
.9384
|
275.05
|
537.9
|
298.71
|
1.0099
|
301.68
|
1982
|
7.4
|
537.9
|
298.71
|
241.0
|
26.6
|
305.39
|
433.0
|
1.1324
|
363.30
|
372.5
|
260.36
|
1.0014
|
260.71
|
1983
|
3.5
|
372.5
|
260.36
|
158.4
|
21.3
|
315.53
|
324.9
|
1.1933
|
321.56
|
227.3
|
231.42
|
1.0086
|
233.41
|
1984
|
3.5
|
227.3
|
231.42
|
136.6
|
18.5
|
341.43
|
243.4
|
1.2452
|
298.26
|
139.0
|
250.38
|
1.0271
|
257.16
|
1985
|
3.1
|
139.0
|
250.38
|
119.3
|
15.9
|
362.18
|
205.7
|
1.1433
|
295.13
|
68.5
|
352.40
|
1.0239
|
360.83
|
1986
|
1.3
|
68.5
|
352.40
|
110.6
|
15.0
|
378.30
|
129.6
|
1.0492
|
374.56
|
64.6
|
363.17
|
1.0348
|
375.82
|
1987
|
4.2
|
64.6
|
363.17
|
108.4
|
14.3
|
401.52
|
125.5
|
1.0549
|
399.21
|
61.8
|
382.07
|
1.0472
|
400.09
|
1988
|
4.0
|
61.8
|
382.07
|
119.7
|
14.2
|
426.20
|
123.8
|
1.0659
|
423.54
|
71.9
|
405.99
|
1.0460
|
424.65
|
1989
|
4.7
|
71.9
|
405.99
|
106.3
|
13.2
|
450.34
|
123.8
|
1.0576
|
449.55
|
67.6
|
424.91
|
1.0541
|
447.90
|
1990
|
5.4
|
67.6
|
424.91
|
101.6
|
12.2
|
471.87
|
115.2
|
1.0596
|
474.54
|
66.2
|
442.73
|
1.0639
|
471.02
|
1991
|
3.7
|
66.2
|
442.73
|
97.5
|
11.4
|
488.74
|
108.6
|
1.0715
|
491.93
|
66.6
|
454.07
|
1.0708
|
486.23
|
1992
|
3.0
|
66.6
|
454.07
|
97.3
|
10.9
|
502.57
|
106.0
|
1.0784
|
504.37
|
68.7
|
465.99
|
1.0818
|
504.10
|
1993
|
2.6
|
68.7
|
465.99
|
98.5
|
10.8
|
513.84
|
108.1
|
1.0865
|
519.46
|
70.0
|
470.10
|
1.0955
|
514.97
|
1994
|
2.8
|
70.0
|
470.10
|
95.5
|
10.5
|
529.65
|
107.4
|
1.1000
|
531.60
|
68.6
|
479.29
|
1.1104
|
532.22
|
1995
|
2.6
|
68.6
|
479.29
|
94.6
|
10.2
|
543.65
|
103.9
|
1.1136
|
547.63
|
69.6
|
486.52
|
1.1233
|
546.53
|
1996
|
2.9
|
69.6
|
486.52
|
96.8
|
10.2
|
556.15
|
105.5
|
1.1183
|
559.86
|
71.2
|
496.34
|
1.1298
|
560.79
|
1997
|
2.1
|
71.2
|
496.34
|
102.1
|
10.5
|
566.31
|
110.0
|
1.1224
|
568.80
|
73.7
|
505.09
|
1.1278
|
569.62
|
1998
|
1.3
|
73.7
|
505.09
|
101.6
|
10.5
|
575.18
|
111.9
|
1.1256
|
575.91
|
73.9
|
510.74
|
1.1354
|
579.90
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
73.9
|
510.74
|
101.4
|
10.6
|
594.25
|
114.7
|
1.1336
|
593.43
|
71.2
|
522.19
|
1.1409
|
595.78
|
2000
|
3.5
|
71.2
|
522.19
|
101.0
|
10.8
|
624.45
|
111.9
|
1.1502
|
621.64
|
71.1
|
544.77
|
1.1540
|
628.66
|
2001
|
2.6
|
71.1
|
544.77
|
100.8
|
11.3
|
644.52
|
111.4
|
1.1534
|
644.67
|
71.9
|
559.60
|
1.1501
|
643.60
|
2002
|
1.4
|
71.9
|
559.60
|
105.5
|
11.8
|
653.85
|
112.6
|
1.1584
|
657.32
|
76.6
|
567.68
|
1.1439
|
649.39
|
2003
|
2.1
|
76.6
|
567.68
|
105.4
|
12.0
|
673.21
|
115.2
|
1.1604
|
672.55
|
78.9
|
583.26
|
1.1436
|
667.00
|
2004
|
2.7
|
78.9
|
583.26
|
107.0
|
13.4
|
694.74
|
137.2
|
1.1358
|
680.38
|
62.1
|
604.86
|
1.1391
|
688.99
|
2005
|
2.0
|
62.1
|
604.86
|
107.3
|
12.7
|
712.18
|
114.8
|
1.1582
|
714.57
|
67.3
|
620.20
|
1.1391
|
706.47
|
2006
|
2.2
|
67.3
|
620.20
|
109.5
|
12.9
|
734.13
|
120.2
|
1.1566
|
733.11
|
69.6
|
638.88
|
1.1391
|
727.75
|
2007
|
2.7
|
69.6
|
638.88
|
112.9
|
13.3
|
761.85
|
123.8
|
1.1584
|
760.04
|
71.9
|
662.71
|
1.1391
|
754.88
|
2008
|
2.8
|
71.9
|
662.71
|
114.8
|
13.6
|
792.00
|
127.1
|
1.1579
|
788.86
|
73.2
|
688.63
|
1.1391
|
784.41
|
2009
|
2.8
|
73.2
|
688.63
|
114.6
|
13.7
|
824.03
|
128.3
|
1.1573
|
819.29
|
73.1
|
716.13
|
1.1391
|
815.74
|
2010
|
2.8
|
73.1
|
716.13
|
113.6
|
13.6
|
858.49
|
127.8
|
1.1581
|
852.58
|
72.6
|
745.69
|
1.1391
|
849.41
|
2011
|
2.8
|
72.6
|
745.69
|
113.0
|
13.5
|
893.09
|
126.9
|
1.1579
|
887.62
|
72.2
|
775.53
|
1.1391
|
883.39
|
2012
|
2.8
|
72.2
|
775.53
|
112.4
|
13.5
|
927.96
|
126.2
|
1.1575
|
922.80
|
71.8
|
805.66
|
1.1391
|
917.72
|
2013
|
2.8
|
71.8
|
805.66
|
111.7
|
13.4
|
964.58
|
125.5
|
1.1579
|
958.99
|
71.4
|
837.25
|
1.1391
|
953.71
|
2014
|
2.8
|
71.4
|
837.25
|
110.6
|
13.3
|
1,002.86
|
124.6
|
1.1579
|
996.56
|
70.7
|
870.30
|
1.1391
|
991.35
|
1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.