Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar year
|
Coverage rate 1
(percent) |
Insured status
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fully 2
(percent) |
Disability 3
(percent) |
||||
|
1975
|
59.09
|
70.83
|
58.44
|
7.19
|
137.61
|
|
1976
|
59.51
|
71.19
|
58.68
|
6.60
|
136.85
|
|
1977
|
60.37
|
71.83
|
59.31
|
6.73
|
140.78
|
|
1978
|
62.02
|
72.29
|
61.32
|
5.84
|
148.01
|
|
1979
|
62.38
|
73.15
|
63.27
|
5.12
|
151.32
|
|
1980
|
62.05
|
73.52
|
64.04
|
4.82
|
145.38
|
|
1981
|
60.88
|
73.96
|
64.81
|
4.21
|
155.61
|
|
1982
|
59.63
|
73.97
|
65.31
|
3.69
|
175.90
|
|
1983
|
59.59
|
74.89
|
65.20
|
4.67
|
169.13
|
|
1984
|
61.49
|
74.61
|
65.53
|
4.30
|
141.43
|
|
1985
|
61.93
|
75.21
|
66.33
|
4.30
|
129.34
|
|
1986
|
62.69
|
75.34
|
66.97
|
4.27
|
125.67
|
|
1987
|
63.54
|
75.49
|
67.53
|
4.18
|
125.73
|
|
1988
|
64.90
|
75.74
|
68.33
|
4.08
|
124.65
|
|
1989
|
65.47
|
76.41
|
69.20
|
4.17
|
119.79
|
|
1990
|
65.48
|
76.45
|
69.89
|
4.48
|
114.88
|
|
1991
|
64.53
|
76.51
|
70.16
|
5.03
|
109.85
|
|
1992
|
64.30
|
76.83
|
70.28
|
5.82
|
106.02
|
|
1993
|
64.69
|
77.43
|
70.45
|
5.67
|
100.65
|
|
1994
|
65.20
|
77.38
|
70.68
|
5.52
|
96.89
|
|
1995
|
65.56
|
77.87
|
71.02
|
5.54
|
96.87
|
|
1996
|
65.93
|
78.11
|
71.29
|
5.24
|
91.83
|
|
1997
|
66.50
|
78.67
|
71.54
|
4.80
|
99.47
|
|
1998
|
67.11
|
78.99
|
71.95
|
4.83
|
85.48
|
|
1999
|
67.67
|
79.25
|
72.42
|
4.78
|
87.38
|
|
2000
|
68.10
|
79.44
|
72.81
|
4.66
|
88.62
|
|
2001
|
67.45
|
79.80
|
72.85
|
5.02
|
84.71
|
|
2002
|
66.39
|
80.31
|
72.47
|
5.30
|
84.74
|
|
2003
|
65.72
|
81.27
|
72.35
|
5.37
|
76.26
|
|
2004
|
65.89
|
81.93
|
72.48
|
5.35
|
74.62
|
|
2005
|
66.09
|
82.48
|
72.52
|
5.17
|
73.95
|
|
2006
|
66.30
|
82.99
|
72.54
|
4.97
|
74.32
|
|
2007
|
66.27
|
83.49
|
72.60
|
4.91
|
75.32
|
|
2008
|
66.21
|
84.02
|
72.70
|
4.99
|
77.79
|
|
2009
|
66.16
|
84.57
|
72.81
|
5.14
|
85.88
|
|
2010
|
66.09
|
85.10
|
72.90
|
5.06
|
85.52
|
|
2011
|
66.00
|
85.60
|
72.99
|
4.92
|
83.18
|
|
2012
|
65.78
|
86.11
|
73.12
|
4.95
|
88.27
|
|
2013
|
65.59
|
86.60
|
73.23
|
4.97
|
91.84
|
|
2014
|
65.41
|
87.05
|
73.34
|
5.00
|
91.21
|
| 1The coverage rate is the number of persons with any covered employment during the year as a percentage of the total population aged 15 or older at the end of the year. 2The fully insured rate is the number of fully insured persons aged 62 or older expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 62 or older, as of December 31. 3The disability insured rate is the number of disability insured persons expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 15 to normal retirement age, as of December 31. 4The disability incidence rate is the number of awards to disabled worker beneficiaries per thousand insured persons (not receiving benefits) under normal retirement age and is age-sex-adjusted based on the insured population as of January 1, 2000. 5The disability termination rate is the number of disabled worker terminations (due to all reasons including death, recovery, and attainment of normal retirement age) per thousand disabled worker beneficiaries. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A7 and V.B7 for low cost and high cost alternatives, respectively.