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2014 OASDI Trustees Report
Office of the Chief Actuary
Actuarial Publications
2014 Trustees Report
Contents
Tables
Figures
LIST OF TABLES
II. OVERVIEW
II.B1 Summary of 2013 Trust Fund Financial Operations
II.B2 Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for 2013
II.C1 Long-Range Values
of Key Assumptions for the 75-year
Projection Period
II.D1 Projected Maximum Trust Fund Ratios During the Long-Range Period and Trust Fund Reserve Depletion Dates
II.D2 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions
III. FINANCIAL OPERATIONS OF THE TRUST FUNDS AND
LEGISLATIVE CHANGES IN THE LAST YEAR
III.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2013
III.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Year 2013
III.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
Calendar Year 2013
III.A4 Comparison of Actual Calendar Year 2013 Trust Fund
Operations With Estimates Made in Prior Reports, Based on Intermediate Assumptions
III.A5 Distribution of Benefit Payments by Type of Beneficiary or Payment, Calendar Years 2012 and 2013
III.A6 Administrative Expenses as a Percentage of Non-interest Income and of Total Expenditures, Calendar Years 2009-13
III.A7 Trust Fund Investment Transactions, Calendar Year 2013
IV. ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
IV.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund,
Calendar Years 2009-23
IV.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 2009-23
IV.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
Calendar Years 2009-23
IV.A4 Reasons for Change in Trust Fund (Unfunded Obligation) Ratios
at the Beginning of the Tenth Year of Projection Under
Intermediate Assumptions
IV.B1 Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances,
Calendar Years 1990-2090
IV.B2 Covered Workers and Beneficiaries,
Calendar Years 1945-2090
IV.B3 Trust Fund Ratios, Calendar Years 2014-90
IV.B4 Components of Summarized Income Rates and Cost Rates,
Calendar Years 2014-88
IV.B5 Components of 75-Year Actuarial Balance
Under Intermediate Assumptions
IV.B6 Reasons for Change in the 75-Year Actuarial Balance,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions
V. ASSUMPTIONS AND METHODS UNDERLYING
ACTUARIAL ESTIMATES
V.A1 Principal Demographic Assumptions,
Calendar Years 1940-2090
V.A2 Social Security Area Population on July 1 and
Dependency Ratios, Calendar Years 1945-2090
V.A3 Period Life Expectancy
V.A4 Cohort Life Expectancy
V.B1 Principal Economic Assumptions
V.B2 Additional Economic Factors
V.C1 Cost-of-Living Benefit Increases, Average Wage Index, Contribution and Benefit Bases, and Retirement
Earnings Test Exempt Amounts, 1975-2023
V.C2 Values for Selected Wage-Indexed Program Parameters,
Calendar Years 1978-2023
V.C3 Legislated Changes in Normal Retirement Age and Delayed Retirement Credits for Persons Reaching Age 62 in
Each Year 1986 and Later
V.C4 OASI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status
at the End of Calendar Years 1945-2090
V.C5 DI Beneficiaries With Benefits in Current-Payment Status
at the End of Calendar Years 1960-2090
V.C6 Contribution and Benefit Base and
Payroll Tax Contribution Rates
V.C7 Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts for Retired Workers
With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns
Based on Intermediate Assumptions,
Calendar Years 2014-90
VI. APPENDICES
A. HISTORY OF OASI AND DI TRUST FUND OPERATIONS
VI.A1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund,
Calendar Years 1937-2013
VI.A2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Calendar Years 1957-2013
VI.A3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
Calendar Years 1957-2013
VI.A4 OASI Trust Fund Asset Reserves,
End of Calendar Years 2012 and 2013
VI.A5 DI Trust Fund Asset Reserves,
End of Calendar Years 2012 and 2013
B. HISTORY OF
ACTUARIAL STATUS
ESTIMATES
VI.B1 Long-Range OASDI Actuarial Balances and
Trust Fund Reserve Depletion Dates as Shown in the
Trustees Reports for 1982-2014
C. FISCAL YEAR HISTORICAL DATA AND
PROJECTIONS THROUGH 2023
VI.C1 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2013
VI.C2 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Year 2013
VI.C3 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
Fiscal Year 2013
VI.C4 Operations of the OASI Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 2009-23
VI.C5 Operations of the DI Trust Fund, Fiscal Years 2009-23
VI.C6 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
Fiscal Years 2009-23
D. LONG-RANGE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
VI.D1 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying
Fertility Assumptions
VI.D2 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying
Death-Rate Assumptions
VI.D3 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying
Net-Immigration Assumptions
VI.D4 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying
Real-Wage Assumptions
VI.D5 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying
CPI-Increase Assumptions
VI.D6 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying
Real-Interest Assumptions
VI.D7 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying
Disability Incidence Assumptions
VI.D8 Sensitivity of OASDI Measures to Varying
Disability Termination Assumptions
E. STOCHASTIC PROJECTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY
VI.E1 Long-Range Estimates Relating to the Actuarial Status of
the Combined OASDI Program
F. INFINITE HORIZON PROJECTIONS
VI.F1 Unfunded OASDI Obligations Through the Infinite Horizon,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions
VI.F2 Present Values of OASDI Cost Less Non-interest Income
and Unfunded Obligations for Program Participants,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions
G. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI,
SEPARATE AND COMBINED
VI.G1 Payroll Tax Contribution Rates for the OASDI and
HI Programs
VI.G2 OASDI and HI Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates,
and Balances, Calendar Years 2014-90
VI.G3 Summarized OASDI and HI Income Rates and Cost Rates for Valuation Periods, Calendar Years 2014-88
VI.G4 OASDI and HI Annual and Summarized Income, Cost, and
Balance as a Percentage of GDP, Calendar Years 2014-90
VI.G5 Ratio of OASDI Taxable Payroll to GDP,
Calendar Years 2014-90
VI.G6 Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2013-90
VI.G7 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
in CPI-indexed 2014 Dollars, Calendar Years 2014-90
VI.G8 Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2014-90
VI.G9 OASDI and HI Annual Non-interest Income, Cost, and
Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2014-90
H. ANALYSIS OF BENEFIT DISBURSEMENTS
FROM THE OASI TRUST FUND WITH
RESPECT TO DISABLED BENEFICIARIES
VI.H1 Benefit Disbursements From the OASI Trust Fund
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries
VI.H2 Benefit Disbursements Under the OASDI Program
With Respect to Disabled Beneficiaries