2006 OASDI Trustees Report

Contents Previous Next List of Tables List of Figures Index

VI. APPENDICES
F. ESTIMATES FOR OASDI AND HI, SEPARATE AND COMBINED

3. Estimates in Dollars

This section presents long-range projections in dollars of the operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds and in some cases the HI Trust Fund. Meaningful comparison of current dollar values over long periods of time can be difficult because of the effect of inflation. Some means of removing inflation is thus generally desirable. Several economic series or indices are provided to allow current dollars to be adjusted for changes in prices, wages, and certain other aspects of economic growth during the projection period.

The selection of a particular index for adjustment of current dollars depends upon the analyst's decision as to which index provides the most useful standard for adjusting dollar amounts, over time, to create values that are appropriately comparable. Table VI.F6 presents five such indices for adjustment. Adjustment of any series of values is accomplished by dividing the value for each year by the corresponding index values for the year. This adjustment removes the inflation in the index from the series of values.

One of the most common forms of standardization is based on some measure of change in the prices of consumer goods. One such price index is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W, hereafter referred to as CPI) which is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor. This is the index used to determine annual increases in OASDI monthly benefits payable after the year of initial eligibility. The CPI is assumed to increase ultimately at annual rates of 1.8, 2.8, and 3.8 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions, respectively. Constant-dollar values (those calculated by dividing by the adjusted CPI in table VI.F6) indicate the relative purchasing power of the values over time. Constant-dollar values are provided in table VI.F7.

Another type of standardization combines the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The wage index presented here is the national average wage index, as defined in section 215(i)(1)(G) of the Social Security Act. This index is used to make annual adjustments to many earnings-related quantities embodied in the Social Security Act, such as the contribution and benefit base. The average annual wage is assumed to increase ultimately by 3.4, 3.9, and 4.4 percent under the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively. Wage-indexed values indicate the level of a series relative to the standard-of-living of workers over time.

The taxable payroll index adjusts for the effects of changes in the number of workers and changes in the proportion of earnings that are taxable, as well as for the effects of price inflation and real-wage growth. The OASDI taxable payroll consists of all earnings subject to OASDI taxation, adjusted for the lower effective tax rate on multiple-employer excess wages. Values adjusted by dividing by the taxable payroll indicate the percentage of payroll that each value represents, and thus the extent to which the series of values increases or decreases as a percent of payroll over time.

The GDP index adjusts for the growth in the aggregate amount of goods and services produced in the United States. Values adjusted by GDP (see appendix VI.F.2) indicate their relative share of the total output of the economy. No explicit assumptions are made about growth in taxable payroll or GDP. These series are computed reflecting the other more basic demographic and economic assumptions, as discussed in sections V.A and V.B, respectively.

Discounting at the rate of interest is another way of adjusting current dollars. The series of interest-rate factors included here is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds for each year. This series is slightly different from the interest rates used to create summarized values elsewhere in this report, where the actual yield on currently-held trust fund assets is used for each year. Ultimate nominal interest rates, which, in practice, are compounded semiannually, are assumed to be approximately 5.4, 5.7, and 5.9 percent for the low cost, intermediate, and high cost assumptions, respectively.

Table VI.F6.-Selected Economic Variables, Calendar Years 2005-80 

[GDP and taxable payroll in billions]

Calendar year
Adjusted
CPI 1
Average
wage index 2
Taxable
payroll 3
Gross
domestic
product
Compound
interest-rate
factor 4
Intermediate:
 
2005
97.19
$37,197.43
$4,754
$12,485
0.9527
 
2006
100.00
38,695.99
5,028
13,191
1.0000
 
2007
102.28
40,375.23
5,302
13,886
1.0528
 
2008
104.94
42,112.24
5,585
14,620
1.1132
 
2009
107.86
43,916.42
5,875
15,366
1.1795
 
2010
110.89
45,798.28
6,173
16,141
1.2498
 
2011
114.00
47,707.59
6,475
16,937
1.3242
 
2012
117.20
49,695.49
6,775
17,748
1.4014
 
2013
120.47
51,632.49
7,069
18,544
1.4832
 
2014
123.85
53,603.73
7,379
19,378
1.5690
 
2015
127.31
55,677.10
7,706
20,274
1.6599
 
 
2020
146.16
67,207.92
9,556
25,369
2.1985
 
2025
167.80
81,352.86
11,770
31,536
2.9118
 
2030
192.64
98,468.99
14,463
39,112
3.8566
 
2035
221.17
119,326.16
17,807
48,593
5.1080
 
2040
253.91
144,701.05
21,948
60,423
6.7654
 
2045
291.51
175,442.24
27,067
75,174
8.9605
 
2050
334.67
212,549.47
33,302
93,329
11.8679
 
2055
384.22
257,395.55
40,927
115,752
15.7188
 
2060
441.11
311,720.91
50,285
143,534
20.8190
 
2065
506.42
377,517.46
61,791
178,018
27.5742
 
2070
581.41
457,258.39
75,880
220,656
36.5212
 
2075
667.49
553,902.85
93,235
273,678
48.3713
 
2080
766.32
670,953.75
114,488
339,249
64.0664
Low Cost:
 
2005
97.35
37,207.16
4,756
12,492
.9539
 
2006
100.00
38,717.74
5,043
13,226
1.0000
 
2007
101.93
40,294.22
5,316
13,898
1.0487
 
2008
103.75
41,843.44
5,592
14,584
1.1037
 
2009
105.63
43,431.83
5,874
15,281
1.1649
 
2010
107.54
45,075.49
6,161
15,995
1.2298
 
2011
109.47
46,758.63
6,456
16,749
1.2997
 
2012
111.44
48,513.49
6,753
17,523
1.3737
 
2013
113.45
50,208.20
7,049
18,290
1.4494
 
2014
115.48
51,920.30
7,351
19,075
1.5284
 
2015
117.56
53,679.86
7,659
19,874
1.6116
 
 
2020
128.53
63,241.93
9,324
24,310
2.1028
 
2025
140.52
74,684.59
11,280
29,555
2.7437
 
2030
153.63
88,136.78
13,637
35,906
3.5800
 
2035
167.96
104,133.07
16,559
43,802
4.6711
 
2040
183.64
123,172.28
20,198
53,656
6.0947
 
2045
200.77
145,707.16
24,703
65,897
7.9523
 
2050
219.50
172,282.35
30,220
80,951
10.3760
 
2055
239.98
203,785.66
36,995
99,512
13.5384
 
2060
262.37
241,084.38
45,325
122,427
17.6647
 
2065
286.85
285,231.67
55,620
150,864
23.0486
 
2070
313.61
337,524.44
68,310
186,069
30.0733
 
2075
342.87
399,474.46
83,944
229,632
39.2391
 
2080
374.86
472,712.26
103,094
283,241
51.1985
High Cost:
 
2005
96.71
$37,138.78
$4,746
$12,458
0.9596
 
2006
100.00
37,968.14
4,911
12,828
1.0000
 
2007
102.72
39,792.92
5,158
13,501
1.0543
 
2008
105.61
41,576.39
5,418
14,252
1.1179
 
2009
110.25
43,136.48
5,660
14,855
1.1899
 
2010
116.55
46,029.79
6,022
15,901
1.2900
 
2011
123.02
49,405.86
6,480
17,315
1.4080
 
2012
128.79
52,179.65
6,888
18,439
1.5132
 
2013
133.85
54,531.83
7,255
19,390
1.6082
 
2014
138.93
56,892.43
7,619
20,389
1.7048
 
2015
144.21
59,333.06
7,989
21,456
1.8064
 
 
2020
173.78
73,390.05
10,119
27,536
2.4151
 
2025
209.40
91,089.22
12,735
35,124
3.2289
 
2030
252.33
113,110.09
15,969
44,645
4.3168
 
2035
304.06
140,585.94
19,989
56,647
5.7714
 
2040
366.39
174,789.75
24,962
71,695
7.7161
 
2045
441.50
217,185.28
31,099
90,543
10.3160
 
2050
532.00
269,556.63
38,523
113,732
13.7920
 
2055
641.06
334,166.86
47,605
142,554
18.4393
 
2060
772.48
414,095.73
58,668
178,219
24.6524
 
2065
930.84
513,006.08
72,131
222,292
32.9591
 
2070
1,121.66
635,745.68
88,572
276,940
44.0647
 
2075
1,351.60
787,844.86
108,662
344,722
58.9123
 
2080
1,628.68
976,583.40
133,194
428,728
78.7629

1The adjusted CPI is the CPI-W indexed to calendar year 2006.

2The average wage index is used to automatically adjust the contribution and benefit base and other wage-indexed program amounts. (See "Average wage index" in the glossary.)

3Taxable payroll consists of total earnings subject to OASDI contribution rates, adjusted to include deemed wages based on military service through calendar year 2001 and to reflect the lower effective contribution rates (compared to the combined employee-employer rate) which apply to multiple-employer "excess wages."

4The compound interest-rate factor is based on the average of the assumed annual interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds in the 12 months of the year, under each alternative.

Table VI.F7 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in constant 2006 dollars (i.e., adjusted by the CPI indexing series as discussed above). Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. Income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, income from taxation of benefits, and miscellaneous reimbursements from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the OASI and DI Trust Funds to the Railroad Retirement program under the financial-interchange provisions, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. These estimates are based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions.

Table VI.F7.-Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
in Constant 2006 Dollars,1 Calendar Years 2006-80 

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2006
$640.0
$100.9
$740.9
$564.2
$2,035.3
 
2007
656.1
106.6
762.7
577.8
2,174.8
 
2008
679.2
114.4
793.5
591.0
2,322.4
 
2009
693.8
123.5
817.2
608.1
2,468.6
 
2010
710.2
132.6
842.9
628.5
2,615.6
 
2011
727.6
142.1
869.7
647.6
2,766.3
 
2012
742.6
151.0
893.6
672.5
2,912.0
 
2013
755.1
159.5
914.7
698.6
3,048.9
 
2014
767.5
167.6
935.1
726.3
3,174.6
 
2015
780.6
174.6
955.1
755.1
3,288.3
 
2020
849.4
201.8
1,051.3
914.7
3,642.8
 
2025
917.7
198.3
1,116.0
1,087.0
3,523.1
 
2030
988.0
162.8
1,150.9
1,254.7
2,823.4
 
20352
1,063.4
96.6
1,159.9
1,397.9
1,575.0
Low Cost:
 
2006
641.0
100.7
741.7
562.4
2,038.0
 
2007
661.1
106.1
767.2
575.3
2,191.4
 
2008
687.6
113.7
801.3
589.3
2,364.8
 
2009
707.9
123.5
831.5
605.5
2,548.9
 
2010
730.4
134.0
864.4
623.7
2,744.3
 
2011
754.7
145.6
900.3
641.1
2,955.0
 
2012
777.1
158.0
935.1
663.9
3,174.0
 
2013
797.7
170.4
968.1
688.3
3,397.6
 
2014
817.8
182.4
1,000.3
714.5
3,623.4
 
2015
837.5
194.2
1,031.7
742.0
3,849.1
 
2020
938.3
254.5
1,192.8
912.0
4,905.2
 
2025
1,044.1
299.8
1,343.9
1,104.2
5,731.9
 
2030
1,159.5
329.4
1,488.9
1,293.9
6,263.1
 
2035
1,290.4
347.5
1,637.9
1,465.2
6,588.5
 
2040
1,439.6
363.5
1,803.0
1,613.7
6,893.4
 
2045
1,609.3
385.6
1,994.9
1,768.3
7,324.5
 
2050
1,799.8
416.4
2,216.2
1,944.8
7,921.0
 
2055
2,014.7
456.4
2,471.2
2,152.9
8,691.9
 
2060
2,257.4
505.5
2,762.9
2,391.3
9,635.7
 
2065
2,533.0
566.1
3,099.1
2,659.5
10,802.0
 
2070
2,844.6
640.8
3,485.4
2,962.2
12,239.8
 
2075
3,196.4
733.0
3,929.4
3,303.3
14,017.3
 
2080
3,590.5
844.3
4,434.9
3,703.3
16,153.2
High Cost:
 
2006
630.9
99.0
729.9
567.5
2,021.1
 
2007
630.6
102.4
732.9
584.3
2,116.2
 
2008
655.8
109.2
765.0
600.6
2,222.7
 
2009
655.3
115.7
771.0
612.0
2,288.2
 
2010
659.8
123.6
783.4
627.7
2,320.2
 
2011
676.2
137.8
813.9
649.9
2,362.2
 
2012
688.7
146.0
834.7
679.8
2,411.4
 
2013
699.4
149.9
849.3
710.6
2,458.8
 
2014
708.8
151.7
860.5
739.5
2,489.9
 
2015
717.1
152.2
869.3
768.5
2,499.6
 
2020
760.3
130.2
890.5
910.9
2,216.1
 
2025 2
800.6
82.6
883.1
1,058.1
1,317.4

1The adjustment from current to constant dollars is by the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F6.

2Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2040 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2030 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Figure VI.F1 provides a comparison of annual cost with total annual income (including interest) and annual income excluding interest, for the OASDI program under intermediate assumptions. All values are expressed in constant dollars, as shown in table VI.F7. The difference between the income values for each year is equal to the trust fund interest earnings. Thus the figure illustrates the fact that, under intermediate assumptions, combined OASDI cost will be payable from (1) current tax income alone through 2016, (2) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are less than annual interest income for years 2017 through 2026, and (3) current tax income plus amounts from the trust funds that are greater than annual interest income for years 2027 through 2039, i.e., through the year preceding the year of trust fund exhaustion.

Figure VI.F1.-Estimated OASDI Income and Cost in Constant Dollars,
Based on Intermediate Assumptions

[In billions]

[D]

Table VI.F8 shows estimated operations of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds in current dollars-that is in dollars unadjusted for price inflation. Items included in the table are: income excluding interest, interest income, total income, total cost, and assets at the end of the year. These estimates, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of demographic and economic assumptions, are presented to facilitate independent analysis.

Table VI.F8.-Operations of the Combined OASI and DI Trust Funds,
in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2006-80 

[In billions]

Calendar year
Income
excluding
interest
Interest
income
Total
income
Cost
Assets at
end of year
Intermediate:
 
2006
$640.0
$100.9
$740.9
$564.2
$2,035.3
 
2007
671.1
109.1
780.1
591.0
2,224.5
 
2008
712.7
120.0
832.7
620.1
2,437.1
 
2009
748.3
133.2
881.5
655.9
2,662.7
 
2010
787.6
147.1
934.7
696.9
2,900.4
 
2011
829.6
162.0
991.5
738.3
3,153.7
 
2012
870.3
177.0
1,047.3
788.2
3,412.8
 
2013
909.7
192.2
1,101.9
841.7
3,673.1
 
2014
950.6
207.6
1,158.2
899.5
3,931.7
 
2015
993.7
222.3
1,216.0
961.4
4,186.4
 
2020
1,241.5
295.0
1,536.5
1,336.9
5,324.2
 
2025
1,539.8
332.7
1,872.6
1,824.0
5,911.7
 
2030
1,903.4
313.7
2,217.1
2,417.1
5,439.0
 
20351
2,351.8
213.6
2,565.4
3,091.7
3,483.3
Low Cost:
 
2006
641.0
100.7
741.7
562.4
2,038.0
 
2007
673.8
108.1
781.9
586.3
2,233.6
 
2008
713.4
118.0
831.4
611.4
2,453.6
 
2009
747.8
130.5
878.3
639.5
2,692.3
 
2010
785.4
144.1
929.5
670.7
2,951.1
 
2011
826.1
159.4
985.5
701.8
3,234.8
 
2012
866.0
176.1
1,042.1
739.9
3,537.0
 
2013
905.0
193.3
1,098.3
780.9
3,854.4
 
2014
944.5
210.7
1,155.1
825.1
4,184.4
 
2015
984.5
228.3
1,212.9
872.3
4,525.0
 
2020
1,206.0
327.1
1,533.2
1,172.2
6,304.6
 
2025
1,467.2
421.3
1,888.4
1,551.6
8,054.5
 
2030
1,781.3
506.1
2,287.4
1,987.9
9,622.0
 
2035
2,167.4
583.7
2,751.0
2,461.0
11,066.3
 
2040
2,643.6
667.4
3,311.0
2,963.3
12,658.7
 
2045
3,231.0
774.2
4,005.2
3,550.1
14,705.3
 
2050
3,950.5
914.0
4,864.5
4,268.8
17,386.5
 
2055
4,834.9
1,095.3
5,930.3
5,166.4
20,858.6
 
2060
5,922.7
1,326.3
7,249.1
6,274.0
25,281.1
 
2065
7,265.8
1,623.9
8,889.7
7,628.7
30,985.2
 
2070
8,921.0
2,009.5
10,930.5
9,289.7
38,385.3
 
2075
10,959.4
2,513.3
13,472.8
11,326.1
48,061.1
 
2080
13,459.5
3,165.1
16,624.6
13,882.2
60,551.7
High Cost:
 
2006
$630.9
$99.0
$729.9
$567.5
$2,021.1
 
2007
647.7
105.2
752.9
600.2
2,173.8
 
2008
692.6
115.4
808.0
634.3
2,347.4
 
2009
722.4
127.6
850.0
674.8
2,522.7
 
2010
769.0
144.1
913.1
731.5
2,704.3
 
2011
831.8
169.5
1,001.3
799.5
2,906.0
 
2012
886.9
188.1
1,075.0
875.5
3,105.5
 
2013
936.2
200.7
1,136.9
951.2
3,291.2
 
2014
984.8
210.8
1,195.6
1,027.4
3,459.4
 
2015
1,034.1
219.5
1,253.7
1,108.2
3,604.8
 
2020
1,321.2
226.2
1,547.4
1,582.9
3,851.1
 
2025 1
1,676.4
172.9
1,849.3
2,215.8
2,758.7

1Estimates for later years are not shown because the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds are estimated to become exhausted in 2040 under the intermediate assumptions and in 2030 under the high cost assumptions.

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F9 shows, in current dollars, estimated income (excluding interest) and estimated total cost (excluding the cost of accumulating target trust fund balances) of the combined OASI and DI Trust Funds, of the HI Trust Fund, and of the combined OASI, DI, and HI Trust Funds, based on the low cost, intermediate, and high cost sets of assumptions described earlier in this report. For OASDI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions, proceeds from taxation of OASDI benefits, and miscellaneous transfers from the General Fund of the Treasury. Cost consists of benefit payments, administrative expenses, net transfers from the trust funds to the Railroad Retirement program, and payments for vocational rehabilitation services for disabled beneficiaries. For HI, income excluding interest consists of payroll-tax contributions (including contributions from railroad employment) and proceeds from the taxation of OASDI benefits. Total cost consists of outlays (scheduled benefits and administrative expenses) for insured beneficiaries. Income and cost estimates are shown on a cash basis for the OASDI program and on an incurred basis for the HI program.

Table VI.F9 also shows the difference between income excluding interest and cost, which is called the balance. The balance indicates the size of the difference between tax income and cost.

Table VI.F9.-OASDI and HI Annual Income Excluding Interest, Cost, and
Balance in Current Dollars, Calendar Years 2006-80 

[In billions]

Calendar
year
OASDI
 
HI
 
Combined
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Income
excluding
interest
Cost
Balance
Intermediate:
 
2006
$640
$564
$76
 
$192
$195
-$3
 
$832
$759
$73
 
2007
671
591
80
 
203
209
-6
 
875
800
74
 
2008
713
620
93
 
217
224
-7
 
929
844
86
 
2009
748
656
92
 
227
239
-12
 
975
895
80
 
2010
788
697
91
 
240
255
-16
 
1,027
952
75
 
2011
830
738
91
 
253
273
-19
 
1,083
1,011
72
 
2012
870
788
82
 
267
292
-25
 
1,137
1,080
57
 
2013
910
842
68
 
280
313
-33
 
1,190
1,154
35
 
2014
951
900
51
 
293
334
-41
 
1,244
1,234
10
 
2015
994
961
32
 
307
358
-51
 
1,301
1,319
-18
 
2020
1,242
1,337
-95
 
387
510
-123
 
1,629
1,847
-219
 
2025
1,540
1,824
-284
 
484
744
-260
 
2,024
2,568
-544
 
2030
1,903
2,417
-514
 
602
1,082
-480
 
2,505
3,500
-994
 
2035
2,352
3,092
-740
 
747
1,540
-793
 
3,099
4,631
-1,533
 
2040
2,903
3,844
-941
 
923
2,113
-1,190
 
3,826
5,956
-2,130
 
2045
3,582
4,739
-1,158
 
1,140
2,822
-1,682
 
4,721
7,561
-2,840
 
2050
4,410
5,844
-1,435
 
1,404
3,695
-2,290
 
5,814
9,539
-3,725
 
2055
5,424
7,237
-1,813
 
1,729
4,782
-3,053
 
7,153
12,019
-4,866
 
2060
6,672
8,984
-2,312
 
2,130
6,181
-4,051
 
8,801
15,165
-6,364
 
2065
8,208
11,178
-2,971
 
2,624
7,969
-5,346
 
10,831
19,148
-8,316
 
2070
10,092
13,921
-3,829
 
3,231
10,251
-7,020
 
13,323
24,172
-10,849
 
2075
12,412
17,290
-4,878
 
3,979
13,087
-9,108
 
16,391
30,377
-13,986
 
2080
15,256
21,456
-6,200
 
4,896
16,610
-11,714
 
20,152
38,066
-17,914
Low Cost:
 
2006
641
562
79
 
192
191
1
 
833
753
80
 
2007
674
586
87
 
203
201
3
 
877
787
90
 
2008
713
611
102
 
216
210
6
 
929
821
108
 
2009
748
640
108
 
225
219
6
 
973
859
114
 
2010
785
671
115
 
237
229
8
 
1,023
900
123
 
2011
826
702
124
 
250
240
10
 
1,076
942
135
 
2012
866
740
126
 
263
252
11
 
1,129
992
137
 
2013
905
781
124
 
276
265
11
 
1,181
1,045
135
 
2014
944
825
119
 
288
277
11
 
1,232
1,102
130
 
2015
985
872
112
 
301
290
11
 
1,285
1,162
123
 
2020
1,206
1,172
34
 
371
368
2
 
1,577
1,541
36
 
2025
1,467
1,552
-84
 
454
480
-26
 
1,921
2,031
-110
 
2030
1,781
1,988
-207
 
554
622
-68
 
2,335
2,610
-275
 
2035
2,167
2,461
-294
 
675
795
-120
 
2,843
3,256
-413
 
2040
2,644
2,963
-320
 
824
1,005
-182
 
3,467
3,968
-501
 
2045
3,231
3,550
-319
 
1,006
1,266
-260
 
4,237
4,816
-579
 
2050
3,951
4,269
-318
 
1,229
1,599
-370
 
5,179
5,868
-689
 
2055
4,835
5,166
-331
 
1,503
2,043
-540
 
6,338
7,209
-871
 
2060
5,923
6,274
-351
 
1,841
2,632
-791
 
7,763
8,906
-1,143
 
2065
7,266
7,629
-363
 
2,257
3,388
-1,131
 
9,523
11,017
-1,494
 
2070
8,921
9,290
-369
 
2,771
4,358
-1,587
 
11,692
13,648
-1,956
 
2075
10,959
11,326
-367
 
3,402
5,563
-2,161
 
14,362
16,889
-2,528
 
2080
13,459
13,882
-423
 
4,178
7,060
-2,882
 
17,638
20,942
-3,304
High Cost:
       
 
2006
$631
$567
$63
 
$187
$199
-$12
 
$818
$767
$51
 
2007
648
600
48
 
198
216
-19
 
846
817
29
 
2008
693
634
58
 
211
236
-24
 
904
870
34
 
2009
722
675
48
 
219
256
-37
 
942
931
11
 
2010
769
732
37
 
235
283
-48
 
1,004
1,015
-10
 
2011
832
800
32
 
258
317
-59
 
1,090
1,116
-26
 
2012
887
875
11
 
276
351
-75
 
1,163
1,227
-64
 
2013
936
951
-15
 
292
387
-95
 
1,228
1,338
-110
 
2014
985
1,027
-43
 
307
424
-116
 
1,292
1,451
-159
 
2015
1,034
1,108
-74
 
324
465
-141
 
1,358
1,573
-215
 
2020
1,321
1,583
-262
 
418
746
-328
 
1,739
2,329
-589
 
2025
1,676
2,216
-539
 
535
1,225
-690
 
2,212
3,441
-1,230
 
2030
2,118
3,038
-919
 
682
2,001
-1,319
 
2,800
5,039
-2,239
 
2035
2,666
4,027
-1,360
 
864
3,171
-2,307
 
3,530
7,197
-3,668
 
2040
3,341
5,193
-1,852
 
1,087
4,732
-3,645
 
4,428
9,925
-5,497
 
2045
4,173
6,630
-2,457
 
1,361
6,711
-5,350
 
5,534
13,342
-7,808
 
2050
5,183
8,434
-3,250
 
1,695
9,118
-7,422
 
6,879
17,551
-10,672
 
2055
6,425
10,739
-4,315
 
2,108
11,976
-9,868
 
8,533
22,716
-14,183
 
2060
7,945
13,687
-5,742
 
2,617
15,531
-12,914
 
10,562
29,217
-18,655
 
2065
9,805
17,469
-7,664
 
3,244
20,040
-16,797
 
13,048
37,509
-24,460
 
2070
12,088
22,284
-10,197
 
4,017
25,784
-21,767
 
16,105
48,068
-31,963
 
2075
14,883
28,263
-13,380
 
4,966
32,876
-27,909
 
19,849
61,139
-41,290
 
2080
18,300
35,648
-17,348
 
6,128
41,663
-35,535
 
24,428
77,311
-52,883

Note: Totals do not necessarily equal the sums of rounded components.

Table VI.F10 shows projected future benefit amounts payable upon retirement at either the normal retirement age (NRA) or age 65, for workers attaining age 65 in 2006 and subsequent years. Illustrative benefit levels are shown for workers with four separate pre-retirement earnings patterns. All estimates are based on the intermediate assumptions in this report. The benefit amounts are shown in constant 2006 dollars (adjusted to 2006 levels by the CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F6). Benefit amounts are also shown as percentages of the career-average relative earnings level for each case, wage indexed to the year prior to retirement. These percentages thus represent the benefit "replacement rate" of the career-average level of earnings.

The normal retirement age is 65 for individuals who reached age 62 before 2000, was increased to age 66 during the period 2000-05 (at a rate of 2 months per year as workers attained age 62) and is scheduled to increase to age 67 during the period 2017-22 (also by 2 months per year as workers attain age 62). Thus, for illustrative cases attaining age 65 after 2002, benefit levels shown for retirement at 65 are lower than the levels shown for retirement at NRA, primarily because of the actuarial reduction for "early" (pre-NRA) retirement.

Four different pre-retirement earnings patterns are represented in table VI.F10. Three of these patterns are for workers with scaled-earnings patterns,1 reflecting low, medium, and high career-average levels of pre-retirement earnings starting at age 21. The fourth case is the steady maximum earner. The three scaled-earnings cases have earnings patterns that reflect differences by age in the probability of work and in average earnings levels experienced by insured workers during the period 1991-2002. The general, career-average level of earnings for the scaled cases is set relative to the national average wage index (AWI) so that benefit levels are consistent with levels for "steady-earnings" cases that were shown in the 2000 and earlier Trustees Reports. For the scaled medium earner, the general, career-average earnings level is about equal to the AWI. For the scaled low and high earners, the general, career-average earnings level is set at about 45 percent and 160 percent of the AWI, respectively. The steady maximum earner is assumed to have earnings at (or above) the OASDI contribution and benefit base for each year prior to retirement starting at age 22.

As noted above, the scaled-earnings cases were constructed so that their career-average earnings levels are consistent with those of the corresponding steady low, average, and high earners that were illustrated in the 2000 and earlier Trustees Reports. As a result, values in this table for benefits under the present-law Social Security benefit formula are essentially comparable to those in earlier reports. Scaled-earnings cases are now being used instead of steady-earnings cases because they more accurately illustrate the differences in benefit levels under the wide variety of reform proposals considered in recent years.

Table VI.F10.-Estimated Annual Scheduled Benefit Amounts1 for Retired Workers
With Various Pre-Retirement Earnings Patterns Based on
Intermediate Assumptions, Calendar Years 2006-80 
Year attain age 65 2
 
Retirement at normal retirement age
 
Retirement at age 65
 
Age at retirement
Constant
2006
dollars   3
Percent of earnings
 
Age at retirement
Constant
2006
dollars3
Percent of earnings
Scaled low earnings:4
 
2006
 
65:8
$9,791
57.8
 
65:0
$9,354
55.9
 
2010
 
66:0
9,865
54.6
 
65:0
9,209
51.7
 
2015
 
66:0
10,661
55.7
 
65:0
9,958
52.6
 
2020
 
66:2
11,289
56.0
 
65:0
10,411
52.2
 
2025
 
67:0
11,877
55.4
 
65:0
10,293
49.0
 
2030
 
67:0
12,519
55.4
 
65:0
10,851
49.0
 
2035
 
67:0
13,200
55.3
 
65:0
11,437
48.9
 
2040
 
67:0
13,932
55.3
 
65:0
12,075
48.9
 
2045
 
67:0
14,716
55.3
 
65:0
12,754
48.9
 
2050
 
67:0
15,545
55.3
 
65:0
13,470
49.0
 
2055
 
67:0
16,405
55.4
 
65:0
14,215
49.0
 
2060
 
67:0
17,305
55.4
 
65:0
14,997
49.0
 
2065
 
67:0
18,254
55.3
 
65:0
15,821
49.0
 
2070
 
67:0
19,257
55.3
 
65:0
16,689
49.0
 
2075
 
67:0
20,315
55.3
 
65:0
17,607
49.0
 
2080
 
67:0
21,436
55.3
 
65:0
18,578
49.0
Scaled medium earnings:5
 
2006
 
65:8
16,127
42.9
 
65:0
15,413
41.4
 
2010
 
66:0
16,258
40.5
 
65:0
15,174
38.3
 
2015
 
66:0
17,572
41.3
 
65:0
16,401
39.0
 
2020
 
66:2
18,605
41.5
 
65:0
17,158
38.7
 
2025
 
67:0
19,562
41.1
 
65:0
16,953
36.3
 
2030
 
67:0
20,625
41.1
 
65:0
17,875
36.3
 
2035
 
67:0
21,748
41.0
 
65:0
18,850
36.3
 
2040
 
67:0
22,959
41.0
 
65:0
19,896
36.3
 
2045
 
67:0
24,250
41.0
 
65:0
21,014
36.3
 
2050
 
67:0
25,609
41.0
 
65:0
22,196
36.3
 
2055
 
67:0
27,025
41.0
 
65:0
23,422
36.3
 
2060
 
67:0
28,509
41.0
 
65:0
24,707
36.3
 
2065
 
67:0
30,073
41.0
 
65:0
26,064
36.3
 
2070
 
67:0
31,725
41.0
 
65:0
27,494
36.3
 
2075
 
67:0
33,470
41.0
 
65:0
29,006
36.3
 
2080
 
67:0
35,316
41.0
 
65:0
30,607
36.3
Scaled high earnings:6
 
2006
 
65:8
21,313
35.8
 
65:0
20,367
34.6
 
2010
 
66:0
21,555
33.5
 
65:0
20,121
31.8
 
2015
 
66:0
23,298
34.2
 
65:0
21,740
32.3
 
2020
 
66:2
24,673
34.4
 
65:0
22,754
32.1
 
2025
 
67:0
25,938
34.0
 
65:0
22,479
30.1
 
2030
 
67:0
27,349
34.0
 
65:0
23,701
30.1
 
2035
 
67:0
28,834
34.0
 
65:0
24,990
30.1
 
2040
 
67:0
30,441
34.0
 
65:0
26,381
30.1
 
2045
 
67:0
32,149
34.0
 
65:0
27,864
30.1
 
2050
 
67:0
33,954
34.0
 
65:0
29,427
30.1
 
2055
 
67:0
35,832
34.0
 
65:0
31,054
30.1
 
2060
 
67:0
37,798
34.0
 
65:0
32,757
30.1
 
2065
 
67:0
39,872
34.0
 
65:0
34,555
30.1
 
2070
 
67:0
42,061
34.0
 
65:0
36,452
30.1
 
2075
 
67:0
44,375
34.0
 
65:0
38,458
30.1
 
2080
 
67:0
46,821
34.0
 
65:0
40,578
30.1
Steady maximum earnings: 7
 
2006
 
65:8
$24,685
29.7
 
65:0
$23,578
28.9
 
2010
 
66:0
25,732
27.5
 
65:0
23,820
26.1
 
2015
 
66:0
28,325
27.6
 
65:0
26,294
26.0
 
2020
 
66:2
30,134
27.6
 
65:0
27,692
25.7
 
2025
 
67:0
31,887
27.3
 
65:0
27,432
24.0
 
2030
 
67:0
33,653
27.3
 
65:0
28,964
24.0
 
2035
 
67:0
35,498
27.2
 
65:0
30,553
23.9
 
2040
 
67:0
37,438
27.2
 
65:0
32,221
24.0
 
2045
 
67:0
39,552
27.2
 
65:0
34,045
24.0
 
2050
 
67:0
41,715
27.3
 
65:0
35,908
24.0
 
2055
 
67:0
44,022
27.3
 
65:0
37,894
24.0
 
2060
 
67:0
46,434
27.3
 
65:0
39,971
24.0
 
2065
 
67:0
48,979
27.3
 
65:0
42,162
24.0
 
2070
 
67:0
51,667
27.3
 
65:0
44,475
24.0
 
2075
 
67:0
54,508
27.3
 
65:0
46,920
24.0
 
2080
 
67:0
57,513
27.3
 
65:0
49,507
24.0

1Annual scheduled benefit amounts are the total for the 12-month period starting with the month of retirement.

2Assumed to attain age 65 in January of the year.

3The adjustment for constant dollars is made using the adjusted CPI indexing series shown in table VI.F6.

4Career-average earnings at about 45 percent of the national average wage index (AWI).

5Career-average earnings at about 100 percent of the AWI.

6Career-average earnings at about 160 percent of the AWI.

7Earnings for each year equal to the OASDI contribution and benefit base.


1More details are provided on scaled-earnings patterns in the Social Security Administration Actuarial Note Number 2005.3, located at the following internet address: www.socialsecurity.gov/OACT/NOTES/ran3/an2005-3.html.


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