Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA 1
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
92.55
|
35.69
|
23.20
|
21.31
|
25.94
|
34.14
|
42.02
|
52.44
|
58.71
|
63.23
|
58.73
|
51.90
|
|
1985
|
58.74
|
27.00
|
22.16
|
24.17
|
26.19
|
34.09
|
45.65
|
54.84
|
63.16
|
66.63
|
74.63
|
54.12
|
|
1990
|
28.38
|
28.36
|
33.24
|
35.50
|
36.49
|
35.16
|
40.12
|
48.91
|
56.86
|
63.51
|
74.49
|
50.21
|
|
1995
|
44.02
|
20.35
|
28.04
|
42.02
|
40.65
|
38.68
|
38.08
|
43.46
|
49.47
|
55.96
|
72.21
|
45.71
|
|
1996
|
34.48
|
20.22
|
22.55
|
32.99
|
32.68
|
32.64
|
35.13
|
39.71
|
46.64
|
55.27
|
69.13
|
41.93
|
|
1997
|
33.79
|
19.98
|
17.08
|
20.97
|
22.86
|
25.43
|
29.89
|
36.64
|
44.67
|
52.16
|
68.57
|
37.30
|
|
1998
|
20.04
|
21.09
|
15.81
|
18.90
|
21.34
|
24.83
|
30.44
|
36.12
|
44.70
|
52.33
|
65.79
|
37.23
|
|
1999
|
27.56
|
17.16
|
15.49
|
18.09
|
20.55
|
24.37
|
30.32
|
36.10
|
44.05
|
51.63
|
64.94
|
36.90
|
|
2000
|
21.22
|
16.77
|
14.87
|
17.10
|
20.40
|
24.31
|
30.46
|
35.99
|
43.19
|
50.04
|
62.59
|
36.42
|
|
2001
|
26.89
|
15.49
|
13.57
|
16.55
|
19.45
|
22.67
|
28.71
|
33.84
|
40.21
|
46.87
|
57.76
|
34.31
|
|
2002
|
18.91
|
13.85
|
14.60
|
17.43
|
20.29
|
24.38
|
30.60
|
35.99
|
41.20
|
48.75
|
57.08
|
36.02
|
|
2003
|
25.28
|
13.84
|
12.65
|
15.42
|
19.53
|
23.51
|
29.67
|
35.08
|
39.71
|
47.07
|
70.17
|
35.28
|
|
2004
|
21.26
|
14.44
|
12.26
|
14.73
|
18.19
|
23.31
|
28.57
|
35.10
|
38.72
|
45.95
|
82.18
|
34.96
|
|
2005
|
20.27
|
13.99
|
11.90
|
14.25
|
17.61
|
22.63
|
27.73
|
34.05
|
37.66
|
44.62
|
72.47
|
34.76
|
|
2006
|
20.15
|
13.77
|
11.74
|
13.99
|
17.34
|
22.30
|
27.32
|
33.52
|
37.10
|
43.88
|
69.96
|
34.64
|
|
2007
|
20.09
|
13.56
|
11.57
|
13.74
|
17.09
|
21.96
|
26.91
|
33.00
|
36.51
|
43.13
|
67.55
|
34.56
|
|
2008
|
19.67
|
13.35
|
11.41
|
13.51
|
16.84
|
21.60
|
26.50
|
32.49
|
35.92
|
42.46
|
66.15
|
34.45
|
|
2009
|
19.24
|
13.13
|
11.24
|
13.28
|
16.57
|
21.21
|
26.08
|
31.97
|
35.32
|
41.79
|
72.97
|
34.53
|
|
2010
|
19.03
|
12.92
|
11.05
|
13.06
|
16.27
|
20.83
|
25.67
|
31.45
|
34.73
|
41.17
|
71.16
|
34.09
|
|
2011
|
18.91
|
12.71
|
10.86
|
12.86
|
15.96
|
20.49
|
25.27
|
30.93
|
34.15
|
40.51
|
67.74
|
33.79
|
|
2012
|
18.61
|
12.49
|
10.67
|
12.66
|
15.67
|
20.17
|
24.86
|
30.42
|
33.58
|
39.81
|
67.30
|
33.58
|
|
2013
|
18.29
|
12.27
|
10.47
|
12.47
|
15.38
|
19.85
|
24.43
|
29.91
|
33.02
|
39.11
|
67.90
|
33.24
|
|
2014
|
17.96
|
12.05
|
10.28
|
12.26
|
15.10
|
19.49
|
23.94
|
29.39
|
32.43
|
38.40
|
66.28
|
32.76
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
75.76
|
38.34
|
23.75
|
24.93
|
27.15
|
33.84
|
38.86
|
42.24
|
41.39
|
40.36
|
46.48
|
39.09
|
|
1985
|
16.81
|
27.48
|
21.49
|
21.49
|
27.45
|
32.64
|
42.06
|
44.66
|
47.06
|
45.74
|
47.25
|
41.79
|
|
1990
|
23.58
|
25.82
|
19.49
|
20.65
|
22.74
|
27.58
|
34.48
|
40.39
|
43.08
|
45.97
|
46.86
|
37.55
|
|
1995
|
15.82
|
18.40
|
16.99
|
19.38
|
21.23
|
23.63
|
28.15
|
32.65
|
37.46
|
41.17
|
50.07
|
31.86
|
|
1996
|
28.35
|
16.34
|
16.33
|
17.85
|
19.36
|
22.03
|
26.66
|
30.96
|
35.30
|
39.93
|
47.00
|
30.24
|
|
1997
|
31.20
|
16.86
|
14.38
|
15.24
|
17.36
|
20.35
|
24.23
|
29.78
|
34.09
|
38.53
|
46.35
|
28.73
|
|
1998
|
25.18
|
17.06
|
12.95
|
14.58
|
16.90
|
19.75
|
24.02
|
28.88
|
32.96
|
37.96
|
45.82
|
28.19
|
|
1999
|
40.27
|
19.31
|
13.57
|
14.67
|
16.14
|
19.05
|
23.82
|
28.48
|
32.30
|
37.49
|
45.16
|
27.86
|
|
2000
|
17.24
|
15.59
|
14.10
|
14.08
|
15.90
|
19.69
|
23.12
|
28.11
|
31.83
|
36.82
|
44.43
|
27.57
|
|
2001
|
11.67
|
16.04
|
12.95
|
12.87
|
15.25
|
18.44
|
22.14
|
26.26
|
30.10
|
34.23
|
40.20
|
25.99
|
|
2002
|
22.10
|
13.91
|
12.60
|
13.71
|
16.24
|
19.76
|
23.48
|
27.40
|
30.65
|
34.99
|
41.28
|
27.01
|
|
2003
|
23.28
|
13.20
|
12.51
|
13.59
|
15.40
|
18.53
|
22.24
|
26.11
|
29.72
|
34.47
|
51.18
|
26.41
|
|
2004
|
13.64
|
13.14
|
11.35
|
12.38
|
14.25
|
18.53
|
21.55
|
25.53
|
28.82
|
33.23
|
56.55
|
25.80
|
|
2005
|
13.01
|
12.75
|
11.01
|
11.99
|
13.81
|
17.99
|
20.92
|
24.77
|
28.01
|
32.28
|
49.64
|
25.53
|
|
2006
|
12.85
|
12.59
|
10.85
|
11.78
|
13.60
|
17.73
|
20.59
|
24.39
|
27.62
|
31.77
|
47.91
|
25.40
|
|
2007
|
12.76
|
12.39
|
10.68
|
11.58
|
13.38
|
17.47
|
20.28
|
24.01
|
27.16
|
31.22
|
46.16
|
25.28
|
|
2008
|
12.53
|
12.20
|
10.51
|
11.39
|
13.18
|
17.19
|
19.97
|
23.63
|
26.72
|
30.71
|
45.17
|
25.14
|
|
2009
|
12.32
|
12.03
|
10.34
|
11.20
|
12.97
|
16.87
|
19.64
|
23.25
|
26.28
|
30.24
|
50.08
|
25.16
|
|
2010
|
12.19
|
11.84
|
10.17
|
11.02
|
12.75
|
16.56
|
19.33
|
22.87
|
25.85
|
29.79
|
48.82
|
24.82
|
|
2011
|
12.02
|
11.62
|
10.00
|
10.85
|
12.53
|
16.28
|
19.03
|
22.49
|
25.43
|
29.31
|
46.37
|
24.57
|
|
2012
|
11.75
|
11.39
|
9.83
|
10.69
|
12.31
|
16.03
|
18.72
|
22.11
|
25.00
|
28.80
|
46.11
|
24.39
|
|
2013
|
11.53
|
11.18
|
9.66
|
10.52
|
12.09
|
15.78
|
18.38
|
21.74
|
24.58
|
28.29
|
46.50
|
24.13
|
|
2014
|
11.32
|
10.98
|
9.48
|
10.33
|
11.88
|
15.51
|
18.02
|
21.36
|
24.14
|
27.78
|
45.50
|
23.78
|
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
87.91
|
36.38
|
23.36
|
22.34
|
26.29
|
34.05
|
41.05
|
49.15
|
52.90
|
55.55
|
54.66
|
47.76
|
|
1985
|
47.88
|
27.14
|
21.97
|
23.35
|
26.57
|
33.64
|
44.52
|
51.55
|
57.77
|
59.60
|
65.27
|
50.11
|
|
1990
|
26.82
|
27.56
|
28.93
|
30.81
|
31.98
|
32.64
|
38.16
|
45.89
|
52.01
|
57.47
|
64.87
|
45.88
|
|
1995
|
33.39
|
19.64
|
24.07
|
33.94
|
33.65
|
33.05
|
34.28
|
39.16
|
44.77
|
50.46
|
64.16
|
40.47
|
|
1996
|
32.08
|
18.77
|
20.24
|
27.41
|
27.74
|
28.56
|
31.81
|
36.14
|
42.09
|
49.44
|
60.93
|
37.39
|
|
1997
|
32.81
|
18.80
|
16.05
|
18.78
|
20.76
|
23.43
|
27.61
|
33.79
|
40.31
|
46.85
|
60.21
|
33.89
|
|
1998
|
21.88
|
19.54
|
14.68
|
17.19
|
19.58
|
22.76
|
27.78
|
33.04
|
39.75
|
46.60
|
58.12
|
33.53
|
|
1999
|
32.26
|
18.00
|
14.71
|
16.71
|
18.75
|
22.17
|
27.56
|
32.82
|
38.99
|
45.87
|
57.19
|
33.12
|
|
2000
|
19.70
|
16.30
|
14.55
|
15.85
|
18.52
|
22.36
|
27.29
|
32.55
|
38.22
|
44.54
|
55.34
|
32.65
|
|
2001
|
20.95
|
15.71
|
13.31
|
14.98
|
17.65
|
20.86
|
25.83
|
30.50
|
35.73
|
41.51
|
50.60
|
30.71
|
|
2002
|
20.12
|
13.87
|
13.74
|
15.80
|
18.52
|
22.37
|
27.44
|
32.15
|
36.48
|
42.83
|
50.49
|
32.06
|
|
2003
|
24.50
|
13.58
|
12.59
|
14.60
|
17.69
|
21.30
|
26.34
|
31.02
|
35.21
|
41.57
|
62.12
|
31.33
|
|
2004
|
18.26
|
13.91
|
11.86
|
13.65
|
16.41
|
21.15
|
25.39
|
30.72
|
34.25
|
40.33
|
71.20
|
30.84
|
|
2005
|
17.22
|
13.49
|
11.51
|
13.19
|
15.86
|
20.51
|
24.61
|
29.76
|
33.27
|
39.12
|
62.49
|
30.57
|
|
2006
|
17.08
|
13.28
|
11.35
|
12.95
|
15.59
|
20.18
|
24.21
|
29.27
|
32.75
|
38.43
|
60.21
|
30.41
|
|
2007
|
17.01
|
13.07
|
11.18
|
12.72
|
15.34
|
19.85
|
23.81
|
28.79
|
32.18
|
37.73
|
57.96
|
30.27
|
|
2008
|
16.64
|
12.86
|
11.01
|
12.51
|
15.08
|
19.51
|
23.42
|
28.32
|
31.62
|
37.10
|
56.63
|
30.11
|
|
2009
|
16.23
|
12.66
|
10.84
|
12.29
|
14.82
|
19.13
|
23.01
|
27.84
|
31.06
|
36.49
|
62.54
|
30.14
|
|
2010
|
16.06
|
12.46
|
10.66
|
12.09
|
14.54
|
18.77
|
22.62
|
27.36
|
30.52
|
35.91
|
60.94
|
29.72
|
|
2011
|
16.00
|
12.24
|
10.48
|
11.91
|
14.27
|
18.43
|
22.25
|
26.88
|
29.99
|
35.30
|
57.89
|
29.41
|
|
2012
|
15.81
|
12.02
|
10.29
|
11.72
|
14.01
|
18.12
|
21.86
|
26.41
|
29.48
|
34.64
|
57.48
|
29.19
|
|
2013
|
15.55
|
11.80
|
10.11
|
11.54
|
13.75
|
17.82
|
21.46
|
25.94
|
28.97
|
34.00
|
57.91
|
28.87
|
|
2014
|
15.27
|
11.59
|
9.92
|
11.34
|
13.50
|
17.49
|
21.01
|
25.46
|
28.44
|
33.35
|
56.55
|
28.42
|
| 1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA." |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.