Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA 1
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
13.02
|
51.12
|
59.80
|
58.65
|
69.83
|
69.52
|
57.29
|
39.10
|
23.77
|
6.39
|
1.84
|
30.29
|
|
1985
|
8.81
|
30.01
|
31.72
|
23.45
|
15.45
|
12.85
|
10.03
|
7.34
|
4.75
|
3.68
|
1.86
|
8.38
|
|
1990
|
11.35
|
24.84
|
29.55
|
23.38
|
18.33
|
13.43
|
11.31
|
8.16
|
5.54
|
5.35
|
2.03
|
10.26
|
|
1995
|
7.66
|
36.72
|
35.61
|
29.55
|
22.38
|
17.34
|
11.54
|
7.92
|
4.84
|
4.08
|
1.49
|
11.71
|
|
1996
|
24.34
|
39.06
|
38.09
|
31.76
|
24.39
|
17.82
|
12.16
|
7.74
|
4.32
|
3.85
|
1.49
|
11.92
|
|
1997
|
33.79
|
49.53
|
60.77
|
58.25
|
55.05
|
49.19
|
38.01
|
21.61
|
9.92
|
5.92
|
5.76
|
27.30
|
|
1998
|
26.05
|
35.02
|
40.64
|
30.42
|
23.35
|
17.23
|
12.20
|
6.76
|
3.16
|
3.02
|
2.30
|
10.65
|
|
1999
|
3.94
|
33.57
|
43.56
|
34.58
|
24.96
|
19.00
|
13.94
|
8.28
|
5.05
|
3.73
|
2.80
|
12.01
|
|
2000
|
21.22
|
30.61
|
49.75
|
43.29
|
32.98
|
23.39
|
16.47
|
9.83
|
5.15
|
3.86
|
3.35
|
14.07
|
|
2001
|
28.38
|
24.02
|
38.61
|
36.81
|
27.42
|
20.66
|
15.64
|
9.92
|
6.73
|
5.49
|
1.73
|
13.11
|
|
2002
|
10.80
|
20.72
|
37.68
|
37.46
|
27.51
|
20.16
|
14.51
|
8.95
|
5.11
|
3.19
|
1.95
|
11.69
|
|
2003
|
13.38
|
17.95
|
31.03
|
31.24
|
24.13
|
17.75
|
12.84
|
7.51
|
4.61
|
3.10
|
2.88
|
10.08
|
|
2004
|
17.72
|
21.37
|
30.74
|
30.05
|
24.29
|
18.06
|
13.14
|
8.31
|
4.50
|
2.79
|
2.48
|
10.02
|
|
2005
|
19.61
|
21.66
|
30.93
|
30.28
|
24.46
|
18.12
|
13.19
|
8.35
|
4.49
|
2.79
|
2.26
|
9.77
|
|
2006
|
21.01
|
22.78
|
32.53
|
31.88
|
25.69
|
19.00
|
13.84
|
8.76
|
4.71
|
2.92
|
2.33
|
10.05
|
|
2007
|
22.49
|
23.78
|
34.14
|
33.45
|
26.85
|
19.87
|
14.48
|
9.17
|
4.94
|
3.07
|
2.39
|
10.30
|
|
2008
|
23.44
|
24.77
|
35.81
|
35.03
|
28.04
|
20.80
|
15.14
|
9.58
|
5.17
|
3.24
|
2.49
|
10.58
|
|
2009
|
25.05
|
25.67
|
37.41
|
36.59
|
29.25
|
21.77
|
15.79
|
9.99
|
5.40
|
3.38
|
2.91
|
10.93
|
|
2010
|
24.83
|
25.54
|
37.41
|
36.59
|
29.32
|
21.83
|
15.77
|
9.98
|
5.41
|
3.33
|
2.89
|
10.78
|
|
2011
|
24.86
|
26.62
|
38.96
|
38.05
|
30.60
|
22.72
|
16.40
|
10.38
|
5.62
|
3.46
|
2.91
|
11.02
|
|
2012
|
25.17
|
27.81
|
40.47
|
39.48
|
31.87
|
23.56
|
17.03
|
10.77
|
5.84
|
3.60
|
3.06
|
11.30
|
|
2013
|
25.07
|
27.97
|
40.43
|
39.41
|
31.90
|
23.51
|
17.04
|
10.75
|
5.83
|
3.60
|
3.14
|
11.19
|
|
2014
|
25.06
|
28.07
|
40.38
|
39.37
|
31.94
|
23.52
|
17.10
|
10.75
|
5.83
|
3.61
|
3.12
|
11.08
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
22.73
|
41.90
|
46.99
|
50.03
|
62.15
|
63.20
|
56.90
|
31.83
|
19.89
|
4.76
|
1.10
|
24.67
|
|
1985
|
0.00
|
36.15
|
38.21
|
26.66
|
18.27
|
15.76
|
12.63
|
8.17
|
4.96
|
3.77
|
1.17
|
9.04
|
|
1990
|
55.01
|
23.61
|
28.19
|
19.76
|
15.73
|
14.08
|
11.30
|
8.05
|
5.29
|
4.11
|
1.30
|
9.14
|
|
1995
|
22.15
|
33.00
|
32.01
|
24.84
|
18.93
|
16.22
|
11.78
|
7.85
|
4.10
|
2.83
|
.95
|
10.18
|
|
1996
|
25.20
|
36.70
|
33.05
|
26.64
|
20.66
|
16.08
|
12.31
|
7.73
|
3.91
|
2.62
|
1.21
|
10.35
|
|
1997
|
24.26
|
44.20
|
42.68
|
39.88
|
34.56
|
27.53
|
20.66
|
11.57
|
5.42
|
3.18
|
3.37
|
15.82
|
|
1998
|
10.79
|
40.48
|
34.05
|
27.44
|
21.26
|
18.24
|
14.19
|
8.75
|
4.23
|
2.58
|
2.37
|
10.87
|
|
1999
|
3.36
|
32.95
|
36.28
|
26.31
|
22.10
|
17.49
|
14.33
|
8.98
|
4.90
|
3.21
|
1.86
|
10.96
|
|
2000
|
11.49
|
28.05
|
39.17
|
34.73
|
26.14
|
20.61
|
16.19
|
10.42
|
5.71
|
3.24
|
2.35
|
12.55
|
|
2001
|
16.34
|
22.04
|
31.23
|
28.59
|
22.69
|
18.70
|
14.58
|
9.68
|
6.42
|
4.44
|
1.59
|
11.54
|
|
2002
|
8.84
|
19.71
|
31.21
|
29.34
|
23.71
|
18.71
|
14.76
|
9.09
|
5.46
|
3.26
|
1.72
|
10.97
|
|
2003
|
4.66
|
16.82
|
28.60
|
25.87
|
19.89
|
16.15
|
12.51
|
8.12
|
4.95
|
2.96
|
2.00
|
9.49
|
|
2004
|
2.73
|
18.75
|
25.34
|
24.79
|
19.77
|
16.21
|
12.83
|
8.60
|
5.11
|
2.77
|
2.37
|
9.43
|
|
2005
|
2.47
|
18.92
|
25.46
|
24.96
|
19.90
|
16.27
|
12.89
|
8.63
|
5.08
|
2.75
|
2.13
|
9.22
|
|
2006
|
2.61
|
19.85
|
26.74
|
26.27
|
20.91
|
17.06
|
13.53
|
9.06
|
5.33
|
2.88
|
2.19
|
9.51
|
|
2007
|
2.73
|
20.73
|
28.00
|
27.56
|
21.87
|
17.87
|
14.16
|
9.49
|
5.60
|
3.04
|
2.25
|
9.77
|
|
2008
|
2.82
|
21.64
|
29.31
|
28.85
|
22.84
|
18.70
|
14.81
|
9.91
|
5.86
|
3.21
|
2.34
|
10.05
|
|
2009
|
2.84
|
22.49
|
30.59
|
30.12
|
23.81
|
19.54
|
15.45
|
10.34
|
6.12
|
3.34
|
2.75
|
10.40
|
|
2010
|
2.93
|
22.42
|
30.59
|
30.12
|
23.85
|
19.57
|
15.43
|
10.33
|
6.12
|
3.29
|
2.72
|
10.26
|
|
2011
|
3.24
|
23.37
|
31.86
|
31.35
|
24.88
|
20.38
|
16.06
|
10.75
|
6.36
|
3.41
|
2.74
|
10.50
|
|
2012
|
3.44
|
24.40
|
33.12
|
32.55
|
25.89
|
21.16
|
16.69
|
11.16
|
6.61
|
3.55
|
2.88
|
10.77
|
|
2013
|
3.43
|
24.52
|
33.12
|
32.48
|
25.90
|
21.13
|
16.70
|
11.14
|
6.59
|
3.56
|
2.96
|
10.67
|
|
2014
|
3.43
|
24.59
|
33.12
|
32.44
|
25.92
|
21.13
|
16.73
|
11.14
|
6.60
|
3.57
|
2.94
|
10.56
|
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
15.70
|
48.71
|
56.10
|
56.20
|
67.58
|
67.66
|
57.17
|
36.75
|
22.47
|
5.84
|
1.59
|
28.47
|
|
1985
|
6.53
|
31.75
|
33.59
|
24.43
|
16.31
|
13.76
|
10.85
|
7.61
|
4.82
|
3.71
|
1.63
|
8.60
|
|
1990
|
25.54
|
24.45
|
29.13
|
22.24
|
17.47
|
13.65
|
11.30
|
8.12
|
5.45
|
4.92
|
1.77
|
9.88
|
|
1995
|
13.12
|
35.36
|
34.32
|
27.87
|
21.14
|
16.92
|
11.63
|
7.89
|
4.55
|
3.62
|
1.30
|
11.13
|
|
1996
|
24.68
|
38.18
|
36.22
|
29.88
|
23.00
|
17.15
|
12.22
|
7.73
|
4.15
|
3.38
|
1.39
|
11.31
|
|
1997
|
30.18
|
47.51
|
53.88
|
51.23
|
47.21
|
40.68
|
31.04
|
17.44
|
8.06
|
4.85
|
4.86
|
22.73
|
|
1998
|
20.59
|
37.12
|
38.04
|
29.24
|
22.52
|
17.64
|
13.03
|
7.60
|
3.62
|
2.85
|
2.33
|
10.74
|
|
1999
|
3.72
|
33.32
|
40.61
|
31.24
|
23.79
|
18.38
|
14.10
|
8.58
|
4.99
|
3.52
|
2.43
|
11.57
|
|
2000
|
17.52
|
29.59
|
45.38
|
39.74
|
30.13
|
22.22
|
16.35
|
10.09
|
5.39
|
3.60
|
2.95
|
13.42
|
|
2001
|
23.68
|
23.23
|
35.49
|
33.29
|
25.40
|
19.82
|
15.17
|
9.82
|
6.59
|
5.05
|
1.67
|
12.43
|
|
2002
|
10.06
|
20.31
|
34.88
|
33.90
|
25.85
|
19.53
|
14.63
|
9.01
|
5.26
|
3.22
|
1.85
|
11.37
|
|
2003
|
9.98
|
17.49
|
29.97
|
28.82
|
22.24
|
17.04
|
12.69
|
7.79
|
4.77
|
3.04
|
2.51
|
9.82
|
|
2004
|
11.82
|
20.31
|
28.39
|
27.63
|
22.24
|
17.22
|
13.00
|
8.44
|
4.78
|
2.78
|
2.43
|
9.76
|
|
2005
|
12.42
|
20.54
|
28.54
|
27.80
|
22.36
|
17.27
|
13.05
|
8.48
|
4.76
|
2.77
|
2.20
|
9.52
|
|
2006
|
13.26
|
21.57
|
30.00
|
29.24
|
23.46
|
18.10
|
13.70
|
8.90
|
4.99
|
2.90
|
2.27
|
9.80
|
|
2007
|
14.20
|
22.51
|
31.46
|
30.66
|
24.49
|
18.93
|
14.33
|
9.32
|
5.24
|
3.06
|
2.32
|
10.06
|
|
2008
|
14.69
|
23.45
|
32.96
|
32.10
|
25.54
|
19.80
|
14.98
|
9.74
|
5.49
|
3.23
|
2.42
|
10.33
|
|
2009
|
15.40
|
24.31
|
34.41
|
33.52
|
26.61
|
20.70
|
15.63
|
10.16
|
5.74
|
3.36
|
2.84
|
10.68
|
|
2010
|
15.30
|
24.20
|
34.40
|
33.51
|
26.64
|
20.73
|
15.61
|
10.15
|
5.74
|
3.31
|
2.81
|
10.53
|
|
2011
|
15.74
|
25.22
|
35.81
|
34.86
|
27.78
|
21.57
|
16.24
|
10.56
|
5.98
|
3.43
|
2.83
|
10.77
|
|
2012
|
16.29
|
26.35
|
37.19
|
36.19
|
28.91
|
22.38
|
16.86
|
10.96
|
6.21
|
3.58
|
2.98
|
11.05
|
|
2013
|
16.31
|
26.50
|
37.14
|
36.11
|
28.93
|
22.32
|
16.87
|
10.94
|
6.20
|
3.58
|
3.05
|
10.94
|
|
2014
|
16.30
|
26.59
|
37.11
|
36.06
|
28.95
|
22.32
|
16.92
|
10.94
|
6.20
|
3.59
|
3.04
|
10.83
|
| 1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA." |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.