Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA 1
|
Total
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
1.45
|
2.62
|
1.68
|
1.13
|
1.22
|
1.27
|
0.95
|
0.87
|
0.68
|
0.92
|
8.68
|
1.21
|
1985
|
5.87
|
2.20
|
1.54
|
1.17
|
1.05
|
1.22
|
1.00
|
.73
|
.68
|
1.44
|
8.91
|
1.38
|
1990
|
3.78
|
2.45
|
2.20
|
1.64
|
1.66
|
1.48
|
1.19
|
.94
|
.76
|
2.74
|
3.04
|
1.70
|
1995
|
1.91
|
2.50
|
1.43
|
1.17
|
.93
|
.82
|
.62
|
.49
|
.40
|
2.84
|
23.83
|
1.73
|
1996
|
4.06
|
2.54
|
1.36
|
1.11
|
.85
|
.69
|
.54
|
.50
|
.36
|
2.75
|
22.01
|
1.59
|
1997
|
.00
|
1.45
|
.74
|
.54
|
.39
|
.28
|
.29
|
.24
|
.26
|
2.79
|
23.17
|
1.38
|
1998
|
2.00
|
1.98
|
.96
|
.81
|
.43
|
.41
|
.32
|
.29
|
.29
|
2.51
|
24.54
|
1.39
|
1999
|
7.87
|
2.99
|
1.73
|
1.33
|
1.09
|
1.13
|
.98
|
.84
|
.58
|
2.81
|
24.20
|
1.87
|
2000
|
.00
|
1.69
|
2.45
|
1.60
|
1.62
|
1.54
|
1.41
|
1.19
|
.77
|
3.01
|
32.33
|
2.34
|
2001
|
.00
|
1.25
|
2.09
|
1.91
|
1.78
|
1.75
|
1.46
|
1.26
|
.94
|
2.87
|
26.56
|
2.26
|
2002
|
4.05
|
2.62
|
2.22
|
2.04
|
1.79
|
1.45
|
1.19
|
1.14
|
.73
|
2.75
|
28.35
|
2.15
|
2003
|
1.49
|
1.90
|
2.46
|
1.99
|
1.51
|
1.16
|
1.02
|
.83
|
.54
|
2.33
|
26.16
|
1.85
|
2004
|
3.54
|
1.78
|
1.91
|
1.65
|
1.46
|
1.27
|
1.06
|
.80
|
.62
|
2.28
|
25.33
|
1.82
|
2005
|
3.43
|
2.15
|
2.26
|
2.03
|
1.85
|
1.67
|
1.47
|
1.24
|
1.07
|
2.63
|
15.92
|
2.31
|
2006
|
3.63
|
2.35
|
2.46
|
2.23
|
2.05
|
1.87
|
1.68
|
1.44
|
1.27
|
2.79
|
15.61
|
2.59
|
2007
|
3.74
|
2.45
|
2.56
|
2.34
|
2.15
|
1.97
|
1.78
|
1.54
|
1.37
|
2.82
|
15.31
|
2.81
|
2008
|
4.73
|
3.45
|
3.56
|
3.34
|
3.15
|
2.97
|
2.78
|
2.54
|
2.37
|
3.86
|
15.24
|
3.86
|
2009
|
4.33
|
3.15
|
3.27
|
3.04
|
2.84
|
2.67
|
2.47
|
2.24
|
2.07
|
3.61
|
17.09
|
3.71
|
2010
|
5.88
|
4.65
|
4.77
|
4.54
|
4.34
|
4.17
|
3.98
|
3.74
|
3.57
|
5.11
|
16.94
|
5.10
|
2011
|
3.55
|
2.14
|
2.27
|
2.04
|
1.85
|
1.67
|
1.48
|
1.24
|
1.07
|
2.62
|
16.40
|
2.86
|
2012
|
3.62
|
2.14
|
2.27
|
2.03
|
1.85
|
1.67
|
1.48
|
1.24
|
1.07
|
2.61
|
16.58
|
2.96
|
2013
|
3.63
|
2.15
|
2.26
|
2.03
|
1.85
|
1.67
|
1.47
|
1.24
|
1.07
|
2.60
|
17.02
|
2.99
|
2014
|
3.63
|
2.15
|
2.26
|
2.03
|
1.85
|
1.67
|
1.47
|
1.23
|
1.07
|
2.59
|
16.91
|
3.00
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
.00
|
2.85
|
1.65
|
1.11
|
.81
|
.77
|
.57
|
.53
|
.49
|
.64
|
5.40
|
.83
|
1985
|
.00
|
2.94
|
1.38
|
.89
|
.89
|
.97
|
.68
|
.61
|
.53
|
.98
|
5.09
|
.98
|
1990
|
.00
|
3.11
|
1.87
|
2.00
|
1.64
|
1.41
|
.97
|
.86
|
.55
|
1.66
|
4.81
|
1.38
|
1995
|
3.17
|
1.21
|
1.54
|
1.03
|
.78
|
.55
|
.47
|
.38
|
.34
|
1.88
|
19.33
|
1.26
|
1996
|
6.30
|
1.34
|
1.27
|
.97
|
.72
|
.59
|
.46
|
.39
|
.35
|
1.75
|
17.41
|
1.15
|
1997
|
.00
|
.95
|
.55
|
.53
|
.36
|
.35
|
.21
|
.28
|
.23
|
1.64
|
17.41
|
.94
|
1998
|
.00
|
1.45
|
.63
|
.52
|
.42
|
.36
|
.33
|
.34
|
.31
|
1.72
|
19.96
|
1.03
|
1999
|
.00
|
2.01
|
1.74
|
1.32
|
1.17
|
1.11
|
.75
|
.49
|
.29
|
1.60
|
19.27
|
1.28
|
2000
|
2.87
|
.91
|
1.90
|
1.47
|
1.76
|
1.48
|
1.16
|
.65
|
.31
|
1.38
|
21.86
|
1.46
|
2001
|
2.33
|
1.81
|
2.09
|
2.08
|
1.61
|
1.40
|
1.11
|
.59
|
.37
|
1.40
|
21.62
|
1.45
|
2002
|
4.42
|
1.80
|
2.12
|
1.82
|
1.53
|
1.13
|
.98
|
.54
|
.35
|
1.43
|
23.39
|
1.42
|
2003
|
2.33
|
2.12
|
1.85
|
1.47
|
1.43
|
.95
|
.64
|
.44
|
.30
|
1.24
|
19.92
|
1.20
|
2004
|
2.73
|
1.81
|
2.02
|
1.54
|
1.42
|
.94
|
.75
|
.44
|
.30
|
1.17
|
16.49
|
1.13
|
2005
|
2.71
|
2.15
|
2.36
|
1.92
|
1.81
|
1.37
|
1.19
|
.91
|
.78
|
1.60
|
9.58
|
1.58
|
2006
|
2.51
|
2.34
|
2.56
|
2.12
|
2.01
|
1.57
|
1.39
|
1.11
|
.98
|
1.77
|
9.39
|
1.82
|
2007
|
2.62
|
2.44
|
2.65
|
2.22
|
2.11
|
1.67
|
1.49
|
1.21
|
1.08
|
1.83
|
9.19
|
1.98
|
2008
|
3.49
|
3.43
|
3.64
|
3.22
|
3.11
|
2.67
|
2.49
|
2.21
|
2.08
|
2.85
|
9.14
|
2.99
|
2009
|
2.98
|
3.13
|
3.33
|
2.92
|
2.81
|
2.37
|
2.19
|
1.91
|
1.78
|
2.59
|
10.30
|
2.78
|
2010
|
4.33
|
4.62
|
4.83
|
4.43
|
4.31
|
3.87
|
3.69
|
3.41
|
3.28
|
4.08
|
10.21
|
4.17
|
2011
|
1.98
|
2.13
|
2.33
|
1.93
|
1.81
|
1.37
|
1.19
|
.91
|
.78
|
1.58
|
9.86
|
1.87
|
2012
|
2.40
|
2.15
|
2.34
|
1.92
|
1.81
|
1.37
|
1.19
|
.91
|
.78
|
1.57
|
9.98
|
1.93
|
2013
|
2.53
|
2.15
|
2.34
|
1.92
|
1.81
|
1.37
|
1.19
|
.90
|
.78
|
1.57
|
10.24
|
1.95
|
2014
|
2.60
|
2.15
|
2.34
|
1.92
|
1.81
|
1.37
|
1.19
|
.90
|
.78
|
1.57
|
10.20
|
1.95
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
1.05
|
2.68
|
1.67
|
1.12
|
1.10
|
1.12
|
.83
|
.76
|
.62
|
.83
|
7.59
|
1.08
|
1985
|
4.35
|
2.41
|
1.49
|
1.09
|
1.00
|
1.14
|
.90
|
.69
|
.63
|
1.29
|
7.61
|
1.25
|
1990
|
2.55
|
2.66
|
2.09
|
1.76
|
1.65
|
1.46
|
1.11
|
.91
|
.69
|
2.37
|
3.66
|
1.59
|
1995
|
2.39
|
2.03
|
1.47
|
1.12
|
.88
|
.72
|
.56
|
.44
|
.38
|
2.48
|
22.20
|
1.55
|
1996
|
4.94
|
2.09
|
1.33
|
1.06
|
.80
|
.65
|
.51
|
.46
|
.36
|
2.37
|
20.30
|
1.42
|
1997
|
.00
|
1.26
|
.67
|
.54
|
.38
|
.31
|
.26
|
.26
|
.24
|
2.34
|
21.00
|
1.20
|
1998
|
1.29
|
1.78
|
.83
|
.69
|
.43
|
.39
|
.32
|
.31
|
.30
|
2.20
|
22.78
|
1.24
|
1999
|
4.96
|
2.61
|
1.73
|
1.32
|
1.12
|
1.12
|
.88
|
.69
|
.45
|
2.32
|
22.27
|
1.63
|
2000
|
1.10
|
1.38
|
2.22
|
1.54
|
1.68
|
1.52
|
1.30
|
.95
|
.57
|
2.33
|
28.16
|
1.97
|
2001
|
.91
|
1.48
|
2.09
|
1.98
|
1.71
|
1.60
|
1.31
|
.97
|
.69
|
2.25
|
24.54
|
1.91
|
2002
|
4.19
|
2.29
|
2.18
|
1.94
|
1.67
|
1.31
|
1.10
|
.87
|
.56
|
2.18
|
26.28
|
1.83
|
2003
|
1.82
|
1.99
|
2.20
|
1.76
|
1.47
|
1.07
|
.85
|
.65
|
.43
|
1.85
|
23.52
|
1.56
|
2004
|
3.22
|
1.79
|
1.96
|
1.60
|
1.44
|
1.12
|
.92
|
.64
|
.48
|
1.79
|
21.54
|
1.51
|
2005
|
3.13
|
2.15
|
2.30
|
1.98
|
1.83
|
1.53
|
1.35
|
1.09
|
.94
|
2.17
|
13.15
|
1.98
|
2006
|
3.16
|
2.35
|
2.50
|
2.18
|
2.03
|
1.73
|
1.54
|
1.29
|
1.14
|
2.33
|
12.86
|
2.24
|
2007
|
3.27
|
2.45
|
2.60
|
2.28
|
2.13
|
1.83
|
1.64
|
1.38
|
1.23
|
2.37
|
12.57
|
2.43
|
2008
|
4.20
|
3.44
|
3.60
|
3.29
|
3.13
|
2.82
|
2.64
|
2.38
|
2.23
|
3.40
|
12.47
|
3.45
|
2009
|
3.74
|
3.14
|
3.29
|
2.99
|
2.83
|
2.52
|
2.34
|
2.08
|
1.93
|
3.14
|
13.99
|
3.27
|
2010
|
5.21
|
4.64
|
4.79
|
4.49
|
4.33
|
4.02
|
3.84
|
3.58
|
3.43
|
4.64
|
13.86
|
4.66
|
2011
|
2.89
|
2.14
|
2.30
|
1.99
|
1.83
|
1.52
|
1.34
|
1.08
|
.93
|
2.13
|
13.39
|
2.39
|
2012
|
3.12
|
2.14
|
2.30
|
1.98
|
1.83
|
1.52
|
1.33
|
1.08
|
.93
|
2.12
|
13.52
|
2.47
|
2013
|
3.19
|
2.15
|
2.30
|
1.98
|
1.83
|
1.52
|
1.33
|
1.07
|
.93
|
2.11
|
13.86
|
2.49
|
2014
|
3.22
|
2.15
|
2.30
|
1.98
|
1.83
|
1.52
|
1.33
|
1.07
|
.93
|
2.11
|
13.77
|
2.50
|
1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement ageNRA." |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.