Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
1980
|
14.3
|
1,254.9
|
$89.92
|
233.1
|
$101.06
|
287.4
|
0.9254
|
$95.12
|
1,200.6
|
$104.33
|
1.0026
|
$104.60
|
1981
|
11.2
|
1,200.6
|
104.33
|
202.2
|
95.29
|
304.4
|
.9376
|
108.77
|
1,098.4
|
114.21
|
1.0125
|
115.64
|
1982
|
7.4
|
1,098.4
|
114.21
|
151.8
|
98.69
|
314.5
|
.9323
|
114.36
|
935.7
|
121.82
|
1.0202
|
124.28
|
1983
|
3.5
|
935.7
|
121.82
|
153.3
|
105.67
|
185.2
|
.7378
|
93.02
|
903.8
|
129.40
|
1.0336
|
133.75
|
1984
|
3.5
|
903.8
|
129.40
|
172.9
|
108.28
|
166.8
|
.9045
|
121.14
|
909.9
|
131.40
|
1.0398
|
136.63
|
1985
|
3.1
|
909.9
|
131.40
|
188.5
|
111.51
|
149.6
|
.9163
|
124.13
|
948.8
|
132.70
|
1.0463
|
138.85
|
1986
|
1.3
|
948.8
|
132.70
|
196.5
|
113.08
|
164.8
|
.9647
|
129.69
|
980.5
|
131.13
|
1.0554
|
138.39
|
1987
|
4.2
|
980.5
|
131.13
|
191.6
|
116.73
|
180.8
|
.9538
|
130.33
|
991.3
|
134.35
|
1.0642
|
142.97
|
1988
|
4.0
|
991.3
|
134.35
|
195.6
|
118.04
|
199.4
|
.9437
|
131.86
|
987.6
|
137.14
|
1.0693
|
146.65
|
1989
|
4.7
|
987.6
|
137.14
|
196.8
|
125.38
|
190.0
|
.9431
|
135.42
|
994.4
|
141.69
|
1.0723
|
151.94
|
1990
|
5.4
|
994.4
|
141.69
|
216.2
|
131.67
|
181.6
|
.9362
|
139.82
|
1,029.0
|
147.54
|
1.0764
|
158.81
|
1991
|
3.7
|
1,029.0
|
147.54
|
249.5
|
135.16
|
180.8
|
.9393
|
143.71
|
1,097.7
|
150.58
|
1.0804
|
162.69
|
1992
|
3.0
|
1,097.7
|
150.58
|
305.4
|
135.25
|
190.8
|
.9342
|
144.89
|
1,212.3
|
151.77
|
1.0880
|
165.12
|
1993
|
2.6
|
1,212.3
|
151.77
|
316.3
|
138.24
|
202.3
|
.9327
|
145.23
|
1,326.2
|
153.25
|
1.0945
|
167.73
|
1994
|
2.8
|
1,326.2
|
153.25
|
325.8
|
144.33
|
219.9
|
.9157
|
144.27
|
1,432.2
|
156.70
|
1.0989
|
172.20
|
1995
|
2.6
|
1,432.2
|
156.70
|
314.3
|
154.08
|
244.6
|
.9182
|
147.63
|
1,502.0
|
161.64
|
1.1007
|
177.92
|
1996
|
2.9
|
1,502.0
|
161.64
|
310.2
|
164.09
|
252.8
|
.8405
|
139.79
|
1,559.3
|
170.29
|
1.1024
|
187.72
|
1997
|
2.1
|
1,559.3
|
170.29
|
277.3
|
172.53
|
300.8
|
.8953
|
155.65
|
1,535.9
|
177.27
|
1.1011
|
195.19
|
1998
|
1.3
|
1,535.9
|
177.27
|
279.1
|
179.10
|
261.9
|
.8939
|
160.53
|
1,553.1
|
182.78
|
1.1020
|
201.42
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
1,553.1
|
182.78
|
283.0
|
185.48
|
264.1
|
.9160
|
171.61
|
1,572.0
|
189.75
|
1.1041
|
209.51
|
2000
|
3.5
|
1,572.0
|
189.75
|
271.0
|
198.25
|
270.9
|
.9202
|
180.71
|
1,572.1
|
199.57
|
1.1062
|
220.77
|
2001
|
2.6
|
1,572.1
|
199.57
|
282.5
|
204.75
|
266.8
|
.9269
|
189.80
|
1,587.8
|
208.18
|
1.1083
|
230.72
|
2002
|
1.4
|
1,587.8
|
208.18
|
316.9
|
203.00
|
275.0
|
.9587
|
202.39
|
1,629.7
|
213.85
|
1.1101
|
237.40
|
2003
|
2.1
|
1,629.7
|
213.85
|
326.2
|
208.05
|
276.2
|
.9568
|
208.90
|
1,679.8
|
220.60
|
1.1147
|
245.90
|
2004
|
2.7
|
1,679.8
|
220.60
|
320.9
|
215.66
|
285.5
|
.9637
|
218.33
|
1,715.2
|
229.29
|
1.1194
|
256.67
|
2005-I
|
...
|
1,715.2
|
229.29
|
80.1
|
216.12
|
74.6
|
1.0190
|
233.65
|
1,720.7
|
228.49
|
1.1097
|
253.55
|
2005-II
|
...
|
1,720.7
|
228.49
|
80.1
|
215.76
|
74.8
|
.9040
|
206.55
|
1,725.9
|
228.85
|
1.1113
|
254.32
|
2005-III
|
...
|
1,725.9
|
228.85
|
80.1
|
215.39
|
75.1
|
.8490
|
194.29
|
1,731.0
|
229.72
|
1.1124
|
255.55
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
1,731.0
|
229.72
|
75.0
|
219.33
|
75.2
|
.9420
|
220.74
|
1,730.8
|
234.27
|
1.1087
|
259.74
|
2006-I
|
...
|
1,730.8
|
234.27
|
77.1
|
219.73
|
75.2
|
1.0190
|
238.72
|
1,732.7
|
233.43
|
1.1097
|
259.04
|
2006-II
|
...
|
1,732.7
|
233.43
|
77.1
|
220.14
|
75.3
|
.9040
|
211.02
|
1,734.5
|
233.81
|
1.1113
|
259.84
|
2006-III
|
...
|
1,734.5
|
233.81
|
77.1
|
220.55
|
75.4
|
.8490
|
198.51
|
1,736.3
|
234.76
|
1.1124
|
261.14
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
1,736.3
|
234.76
|
72.2
|
225.81
|
75.3
|
.9420
|
226.02
|
1,733.2
|
239.95
|
1.1087
|
266.03
|
2007-I
|
...
|
1,733.2
|
239.95
|
78.0
|
226.44
|
75.3
|
1.0190
|
244.51
|
1,735.8
|
239.15
|
1.1097
|
265.38
|
2007-II
|
...
|
1,735.8
|
239.15
|
78.0
|
227.07
|
75.4
|
.9040
|
216.19
|
1,738.4
|
239.60
|
1.1113
|
266.27
|
2007-III
|
...
|
1,738.4
|
239.60
|
78.0
|
227.70
|
75.5
|
.8490
|
203.42
|
1,740.9
|
240.64
|
1.1124
|
267.68
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
1,740.9
|
240.64
|
73.1
|
234.50
|
75.5
|
.9420
|
232.82
|
1,738.4
|
247.24
|
1.1087
|
274.12
|
2008-I
|
...
|
1,738.4
|
247.24
|
78.9
|
235.39
|
75.6
|
1.0190
|
251.94
|
1,741.8
|
246.50
|
1.1097
|
273.54
|
2008-II
|
...
|
1,741.8
|
246.50
|
78.9
|
236.28
|
75.7
|
.9040
|
222.84
|
1,745.0
|
247.06
|
1.1113
|
274.56
|
2008-III
|
...
|
1,745.0
|
247.06
|
78.9
|
237.16
|
75.8
|
.8490
|
209.76
|
1,748.1
|
248.24
|
1.1124
|
276.14
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
1,748.1
|
248.24
|
73.9
|
244.71
|
75.9
|
.9420
|
240.40
|
1,746.2
|
255.40
|
1.1087
|
283.16
|
2009-I
|
...
|
1,746.2
|
255.40
|
82.9
|
245.51
|
76.0
|
1.0190
|
260.26
|
1,753.1
|
254.72
|
1.1097
|
282.67
|
2009-II
|
...
|
1,753.1
|
254.72
|
82.9
|
246.31
|
76.3
|
.9040
|
230.27
|
1,759.7
|
255.39
|
1.1113
|
283.81
|
2009-III
|
...
|
1,759.7
|
255.39
|
82.9
|
247.10
|
76.6
|
.8490
|
216.82
|
1,766.1
|
256.67
|
1.1124
|
285.52
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
1,766.1
|
256.67
|
77.7
|
254.84
|
76.7
|
.9420
|
248.57
|
1,767.0
|
264.14
|
1.1087
|
292.85
|
2010-I
|
...
|
1,767.0
|
264.14
|
81.1
|
256.10
|
76.8
|
1.0190
|
269.16
|
1,771.4
|
263.56
|
1.1097
|
292.47
|
2010-II
|
...
|
1,771.4
|
263.56
|
81.1
|
257.37
|
77.0
|
.9040
|
238.25
|
1,775.5
|
264.37
|
1.1113
|
293.79
|
2010-III
|
...
|
1,775.5
|
264.37
|
81.1
|
258.63
|
77.2
|
.8490
|
224.45
|
1,779.5
|
265.84
|
1.1124
|
295.72
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
1,779.5
|
265.84
|
76.0
|
267.17
|
77.2
|
.9420
|
257.45
|
1,778.3
|
273.73
|
1.1087
|
303.48
|
2011-I
|
...
|
1,778.3
|
273.73
|
80.4
|
268.46
|
77.3
|
1.0190
|
278.93
|
1,781.4
|
273.26
|
1.1097
|
303.24
|
2011-II
|
...
|
1,781.4
|
273.26
|
80.4
|
269.75
|
77.4
|
.9040
|
247.03
|
1,784.4
|
274.24
|
1.1113
|
304.77
|
2011-III
|
...
|
1,784.4
|
274.24
|
80.4
|
271.04
|
77.5
|
.8490
|
232.83
|
1,787.3
|
275.90
|
1.1124
|
306.91
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
1,787.3
|
275.90
|
75.4
|
279.96
|
77.6
|
.9420
|
267.19
|
1,785.1
|
284.20
|
1.1087
|
315.09
|
2012-I
|
...
|
1,785.1
|
284.20
|
81.9
|
280.94
|
77.6
|
1.0190
|
289.60
|
1,789.4
|
283.81
|
1.1097
|
314.95
|
2012-II
|
...
|
1,789.4
|
283.81
|
81.9
|
281.92
|
77.8
|
.9040
|
256.57
|
1,793.5
|
284.91
|
1.1113
|
316.62
|
2012-III
|
...
|
1,793.5
|
284.91
|
81.9
|
282.91
|
78.0
|
.8490
|
241.89
|
1,797.4
|
286.68
|
1.1124
|
318.91
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
1,797.4
|
286.68
|
76.7
|
291.84
|
78.0
|
.9420
|
277.63
|
1,796.1
|
295.35
|
1.1087
|
327.45
|
2013-I
|
...
|
1,796.1
|
295.35
|
82.1
|
292.79
|
78.1
|
1.0190
|
300.96
|
1,800.1
|
294.99
|
1.1097
|
327.35
|
2013-II
|
...
|
1,800.1
|
294.99
|
82.1
|
293.74
|
78.3
|
.9040
|
266.67
|
1,804.0
|
296.16
|
1.1113
|
329.12
|
2013-III
|
...
|
1,804.0
|
296.16
|
82.1
|
294.69
|
78.4
|
.8490
|
251.44
|
1,807.6
|
298.03
|
1.1124
|
331.53
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
1,807.6
|
298.03
|
76.9
|
303.92
|
78.5
|
.9420
|
288.62
|
1,806.1
|
307.06
|
1.1087
|
340.44
|
2014-I
|
...
|
1,806.1
|
307.06
|
83.4
|
304.86
|
78.5
|
1.0190
|
312.89
|
1,811.0
|
306.71
|
1.1097
|
340.35
|
2014-II
|
...
|
1,811.0
|
306.71
|
83.4
|
305.80
|
78.7
|
.9040
|
277.26
|
1,815.6
|
307.94
|
1.1113
|
342.21
|
2014-III
|
...
|
1,815.6
|
307.94
|
83.4
|
306.74
|
78.9
|
.8490
|
261.44
|
1,820.1
|
309.90
|
1.1124
|
344.74
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
1,820.1
|
309.90
|
78.1
|
316.30
|
79.0
|
.9420
|
300.12
|
1,819.2
|
319.30
|
1.1087
|
354.01
|
1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.