Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
32.9
|
$117.28
|
6.2
|
$129.16
|
5.5
|
0.8929
|
$119.69
|
33.6
|
$135.57
|
1.0034
|
$136.03
|
|
1981
|
11.2
|
33.6
|
135.57
|
5.5
|
136.81
|
5.0
|
.9676
|
145.87
|
34.1
|
149.21
|
1.0181
|
151.91
|
|
1982
|
7.4
|
34.1
|
149.21
|
4.2
|
147.41
|
6.3
|
.9828
|
157.49
|
32.0
|
159.41
|
1.0282
|
163.90
|
|
1983
|
3.5
|
32.0
|
159.41
|
5.2
|
151.26
|
4.5
|
.9028
|
148.95
|
32.7
|
165.01
|
1.0422
|
171.98
|
|
1984
|
3.5
|
32.7
|
165.01
|
5.6
|
159.18
|
4.1
|
.9902
|
169.11
|
34.3
|
169.08
|
1.0562
|
178.59
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
34.3
|
169.08
|
6.7
|
162.90
|
4.1
|
1.0225
|
178.25
|
36.8
|
172.08
|
1.0679
|
183.77
|
|
1986
|
1.3
|
36.8
|
172.08
|
6.9
|
165.66
|
4.2
|
1.0885
|
189.74
|
39.6
|
171.41
|
1.0894
|
186.73
|
|
1987
|
4.2
|
39.6
|
171.41
|
6.7
|
163.52
|
4.9
|
1.0059
|
179.66
|
41.3
|
176.52
|
1.1089
|
195.74
|
|
1988
|
4.0
|
41.3
|
176.52
|
6.6
|
162.34
|
5.3
|
.8995
|
165.13
|
42.7
|
182.71
|
1.1218
|
204.96
|
|
1989
|
4.7
|
42.7
|
182.71
|
6.3
|
180.75
|
5.1
|
.8854
|
169.38
|
43.8
|
192.51
|
1.1334
|
218.20
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
43.8
|
192.51
|
6.6
|
190.51
|
5.2
|
.9091
|
184.47
|
45.2
|
203.45
|
1.1373
|
231.38
|
|
1991
|
3.7
|
45.2
|
203.45
|
7.5
|
198.66
|
5.4
|
.9329
|
196.81
|
47.3
|
210.74
|
1.1429
|
240.86
|
|
1992
|
3.0
|
47.3
|
210.74
|
9.5
|
198.19
|
5.1
|
.9743
|
211.47
|
51.7
|
214.21
|
1.1522
|
246.82
|
|
1993
|
2.6
|
51.7
|
214.21
|
10.2
|
202.30
|
5.5
|
.9522
|
209.27
|
56.5
|
217.75
|
1.1634
|
253.34
|
|
1994
|
2.8
|
56.5
|
217.75
|
9.7
|
211.54
|
5.8
|
.9190
|
205.71
|
60.4
|
223.74
|
1.1686
|
261.47
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
60.4
|
223.74
|
9.7
|
218.92
|
6.3
|
.9055
|
207.87
|
63.9
|
230.20
|
1.1734
|
270.12
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
63.9
|
230.20
|
9.3
|
231.64
|
6.3
|
.8648
|
204.84
|
66.9
|
239.25
|
1.1772
|
281.65
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
66.9
|
239.25
|
8.5
|
240.74
|
7.4
|
.8884
|
217.00
|
68.0
|
246.88
|
1.1835
|
292.18
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
68.0
|
246.88
|
9.1
|
250.58
|
6.7
|
.8796
|
219.99
|
70.4
|
253.08
|
1.1863
|
300.24
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
70.4
|
253.08
|
9.8
|
252.50
|
7.6
|
.9017
|
233.90
|
72.6
|
261.23
|
1.1893
|
310.68
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
72.6
|
261.23
|
9.6
|
255.71
|
8.5
|
.8649
|
233.85
|
73.7
|
272.82
|
1.1934
|
325.58
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
73.7
|
272.82
|
9.6
|
275.69
|
7.9
|
.8838
|
247.37
|
75.5
|
283.66
|
1.1981
|
339.85
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
75.5
|
283.66
|
11.0
|
271.35
|
8.4
|
.9442
|
271.58
|
78.0
|
289.85
|
1.2042
|
349.05
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
78.0
|
289.85
|
12.3
|
272.44
|
7.9
|
.9175
|
271.53
|
82.4
|
297.48
|
1.2133
|
360.92
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
82.4
|
297.48
|
12.2
|
271.26
|
7.8
|
.9130
|
278.92
|
86.8
|
305.97
|
1.2293
|
376.12
|
|
2005-I
|
...
|
86.8
|
305.97
|
3.0
|
272.33
|
2.4
|
.9060
|
277.21
|
87.4
|
305.61
|
1.2009
|
367.01
|
|
2005-II
|
...
|
87.4
|
305.61
|
3.0
|
271.71
|
2.4
|
.8740
|
267.11
|
87.9
|
305.53
|
1.2035
|
367.70
|
|
2005-III
|
...
|
87.9
|
305.53
|
3.0
|
271.09
|
2.5
|
.8280
|
252.98
|
88.5
|
305.82
|
1.2052
|
368.57
|
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
88.5
|
305.82
|
2.8
|
275.88
|
2.5
|
.9240
|
288.24
|
88.8
|
311.46
|
1.1997
|
373.66
|
|
2006-I
|
...
|
88.8
|
311.46
|
3.0
|
276.39
|
2.5
|
.9060
|
282.18
|
89.3
|
311.11
|
1.2009
|
373.61
|
|
2006-II
|
...
|
89.3
|
311.11
|
3.0
|
276.90
|
2.5
|
.8740
|
271.91
|
89.8
|
311.08
|
1.2035
|
374.38
|
|
2006-III
|
...
|
89.8
|
311.08
|
3.0
|
277.41
|
2.5
|
.8280
|
257.57
|
90.2
|
311.46
|
1.2052
|
375.37
|
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
90.2
|
311.46
|
2.8
|
284.03
|
2.5
|
.9240
|
294.13
|
90.5
|
317.94
|
1.1997
|
381.44
|
|
2007-I
|
...
|
90.5
|
317.94
|
3.0
|
284.83
|
2.5
|
.9060
|
288.06
|
91.0
|
317.68
|
1.2009
|
381.50
|
|
2007-II
|
...
|
91.0
|
317.68
|
3.0
|
285.62
|
2.5
|
.8740
|
277.65
|
91.4
|
317.74
|
1.2035
|
382.40
|
|
2007-III
|
...
|
91.4
|
317.74
|
3.0
|
286.42
|
2.6
|
.8280
|
263.09
|
91.9
|
318.24
|
1.2052
|
383.54
|
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
91.9
|
318.24
|
2.8
|
294.96
|
2.6
|
.9240
|
302.01
|
92.1
|
326.56
|
1.1997
|
391.78
|
|
2008-I
|
...
|
92.1
|
326.56
|
3.1
|
296.08
|
2.6
|
.9060
|
295.87
|
92.6
|
326.39
|
1.2009
|
391.96
|
|
2008-II
|
...
|
92.6
|
326.39
|
3.1
|
297.20
|
2.6
|
.8740
|
285.27
|
93.2
|
326.56
|
1.2035
|
393.01
|
|
2008-III
|
...
|
93.2
|
326.56
|
3.1
|
298.31
|
2.6
|
.8280
|
270.39
|
93.7
|
327.18
|
1.2052
|
394.32
|
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
93.7
|
327.18
|
2.9
|
307.81
|
2.6
|
.9240
|
310.80
|
94.0
|
336.18
|
1.1997
|
403.32
|
|
2009-I
|
...
|
94.0
|
336.18
|
3.3
|
308.81
|
2.6
|
.9060
|
304.58
|
94.6
|
336.12
|
1.2009
|
403.64
|
|
2009-II
|
...
|
94.6
|
336.12
|
3.3
|
309.81
|
2.6
|
.8740
|
293.77
|
95.2
|
336.39
|
1.2035
|
404.84
|
|
2009-III
|
...
|
95.2
|
336.39
|
3.3
|
310.82
|
2.7
|
.8280
|
278.53
|
95.9
|
337.12
|
1.2052
|
406.30
|
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
95.9
|
337.12
|
3.1
|
320.55
|
2.7
|
.9240
|
320.24
|
96.2
|
346.48
|
1.1997
|
415.68
|
|
2010-I
|
...
|
96.2
|
346.48
|
3.3
|
322.14
|
2.7
|
.9060
|
313.92
|
96.8
|
346.56
|
1.2009
|
416.19
|
|
2010-II
|
...
|
96.8
|
346.56
|
3.3
|
323.72
|
2.7
|
.8740
|
302.90
|
97.4
|
347.01
|
1.2035
|
417.63
|
|
2010-III
|
...
|
97.4
|
347.01
|
3.3
|
325.31
|
2.7
|
.8280
|
287.32
|
98.0
|
347.94
|
1.2052
|
419.34
|
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
98.0
|
347.94
|
3.1
|
336.05
|
2.7
|
.9240
|
330.51
|
98.3
|
357.78
|
1.1997
|
429.22
|
|
2011-I
|
...
|
98.3
|
357.78
|
3.3
|
337.68
|
2.7
|
.9060
|
324.15
|
98.8
|
358.05
|
1.2009
|
429.98
|
|
2011-II
|
...
|
98.8
|
358.05
|
3.3
|
339.30
|
2.8
|
.8740
|
312.94
|
99.3
|
358.69
|
1.2035
|
431.68
|
|
2011-III
|
...
|
99.3
|
358.69
|
3.3
|
340.93
|
2.8
|
.8280
|
296.99
|
99.8
|
359.82
|
1.2052
|
433.66
|
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
99.8
|
359.82
|
3.1
|
352.15
|
2.8
|
.9240
|
341.80
|
100.1
|
370.15
|
1.1997
|
444.07
|
|
2012-I
|
...
|
100.1
|
370.15
|
3.3
|
353.38
|
2.8
|
.9060
|
335.36
|
100.6
|
370.57
|
1.2009
|
445.02
|
|
2012-II
|
...
|
100.6
|
370.57
|
3.3
|
354.61
|
2.8
|
.8740
|
323.88
|
101.1
|
371.34
|
1.2035
|
446.91
|
|
2012-III
|
...
|
101.1
|
371.34
|
3.3
|
355.85
|
2.8
|
.8280
|
307.47
|
101.6
|
372.61
|
1.2052
|
449.07
|
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
101.6
|
372.61
|
3.1
|
367.08
|
2.8
|
.9240
|
353.95
|
101.9
|
383.39
|
1.1997
|
459.95
|
|
2013-I
|
...
|
101.9
|
383.39
|
3.4
|
368.28
|
2.8
|
.9060
|
347.35
|
102.4
|
383.89
|
1.2009
|
461.02
|
|
2013-II
|
...
|
102.4
|
383.89
|
3.4
|
369.47
|
2.9
|
.8740
|
335.52
|
102.9
|
384.77
|
1.2035
|
463.07
|
|
2013-III
|
...
|
102.9
|
384.77
|
3.4
|
370.67
|
2.9
|
.8280
|
318.59
|
103.4
|
386.15
|
1.2052
|
465.39
|
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
103.4
|
386.15
|
3.2
|
382.28
|
2.9
|
.9240
|
366.81
|
103.7
|
397.37
|
1.1997
|
476.72
|
|
2014-I
|
...
|
103.7
|
397.37
|
3.4
|
383.46
|
2.9
|
.9060
|
360.02
|
104.2
|
397.95
|
1.2009
|
477.90
|
|
2014-II
|
...
|
104.2
|
397.95
|
3.4
|
384.64
|
2.9
|
.8740
|
347.81
|
104.7
|
398.91
|
1.2035
|
480.09
|
|
2014-III
|
...
|
104.7
|
398.91
|
3.4
|
385.83
|
2.9
|
.8280
|
330.30
|
105.2
|
400.39
|
1.2052
|
482.55
|
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
105.2
|
400.39
|
3.2
|
397.85
|
2.9
|
.9240
|
380.34
|
105.5
|
412.07
|
1.1997
|
494.36
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.