Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of year |
Awards
during year |
Terminations
during year |
In force
end of year |
Current-payment status
end of year |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of year |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of year |
Average
benefit |
||
Disabled widows
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
14.3
|
129.7
|
$180.62
|
15.8
|
$205.40
|
18.2
|
1.0373
|
$214.15
|
127.3
|
$205.22
|
1.0007
|
$205.35
|
1985
|
3.1
|
107.5
|
306.48
|
16.7
|
308.22
|
18.3
|
.9925
|
313.60
|
105.9
|
315.16
|
1.0045
|
316.58
|
1990
|
5.4
|
101.9
|
366.26
|
14.9
|
403.26
|
15.6
|
1.0031
|
387.25
|
101.3
|
388.39
|
1.0075
|
391.30
|
1995
|
2.6
|
160.2
|
446.87
|
28.7
|
462.32
|
16.5
|
1.0022
|
459.48
|
172.4
|
459.03
|
1.0054
|
461.49
|
1996
|
2.9
|
172.4
|
459.03
|
27.7
|
467.57
|
18.9
|
.9996
|
472.14
|
181.3
|
471.64
|
1.0056
|
474.30
|
1997
|
2.1
|
181.3
|
471.64
|
27.6
|
479.68
|
21.8
|
1.0011
|
482.08
|
187.0
|
481.20
|
1.0055
|
483.87
|
1998
|
1.3
|
187.0
|
481.20
|
28.4
|
485.20
|
22.3
|
.9793
|
477.36
|
193.1
|
488.29
|
1.0055
|
490.96
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
193.1
|
488.29
|
28.6
|
507.12
|
24.3
|
1.0027
|
501.85
|
197.3
|
501.29
|
1.0053
|
503.94
|
2000
|
3.5
|
197.3
|
501.29
|
27.0
|
532.56
|
24.6
|
.9945
|
515.98
|
199.7
|
521.04
|
1.0054
|
523.83
|
2001
|
2.6
|
199.7
|
521.04
|
27.1
|
553.33
|
24.6
|
.9800
|
523.89
|
202.1
|
538.40
|
1.0053
|
541.23
|
2002
|
1.4
|
202.1
|
538.40
|
28.2
|
569.84
|
25.0
|
1.0061
|
549.26
|
205.3
|
548.82
|
1.0077
|
553.03
|
2003
|
2.1
|
205.3
|
548.82
|
27.2
|
585.03
|
25.5
|
.9834
|
551.04
|
207.0
|
564.73
|
1.0077
|
569.07
|
2004
|
2.7
|
207.0
|
564.73
|
26.7
|
601.37
|
25.3
|
.9861
|
571.92
|
208.4
|
583.70
|
1.0082
|
588.46
|
2005
|
2.0
|
208.4
|
583.70
|
26.7
|
615.44
|
25.4
|
.9626
|
573.12
|
209.7
|
600.62
|
1.0082
|
605.52
|
2006
|
2.2
|
209.7
|
600.62
|
26.5
|
636.61
|
24.6
|
.9786
|
600.68
|
211.6
|
618.22
|
1.0082
|
623.26
|
2007
|
2.7
|
211.6
|
618.22
|
26.0
|
662.89
|
24.5
|
.9803
|
622.40
|
213.1
|
639.76
|
1.0082
|
644.98
|
2008
|
2.8
|
213.1
|
639.76
|
25.4
|
688.81
|
23.7
|
.9787
|
643.64
|
214.8
|
662.92
|
1.0082
|
668.32
|
2009
|
2.8
|
214.8
|
662.92
|
24.8
|
716.11
|
22.4
|
.9764
|
665.37
|
217.2
|
687.09
|
1.0082
|
692.70
|
2010
|
2.8
|
217.2
|
687.09
|
24.2
|
746.00
|
20.9
|
.9736
|
687.67
|
220.5
|
712.45
|
1.0082
|
718.26
|
2011
|
2.8
|
220.5
|
712.45
|
23.6
|
777.03
|
25.6
|
.9785
|
716.64
|
218.5
|
739.08
|
1.0082
|
745.11
|
2012
|
2.8
|
218.5
|
739.08
|
23.2
|
806.56
|
26.9
|
.9774
|
742.58
|
214.8
|
766.98
|
1.0082
|
773.24
|
2013
|
2.8
|
214.8
|
766.98
|
22.8
|
839.03
|
27.8
|
.9785
|
771.51
|
209.8
|
796.20
|
1.0082
|
802.69
|
2014
|
2.8
|
209.8
|
796.20
|
22.4
|
872.95
|
26.5
|
.9762
|
799.01
|
205.8
|
826.93
|
1.0082
|
833.68
|
Disabled widowers
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
14.3
|
.9
|
134.39
|
.3
|
134.80
|
.1
|
1.0150
|
155.92
|
1.0
|
148.22
|
.9816
|
145.49
|
1985
|
3.1
|
1.3
|
192.67
|
.3
|
180.49
|
.3
|
1.0775
|
214.03
|
1.4
|
191.38
|
.9994
|
191.27
|
1990
|
5.4
|
1.7
|
221.41
|
.4
|
261.78
|
.3
|
1.0943
|
255.36
|
1.7
|
235.62
|
1.0119
|
238.42
|
1995
|
2.6
|
3.5
|
291.07
|
.8
|
306.49
|
.4
|
1.0638
|
317.67
|
4.0
|
298.49
|
1.0305
|
307.59
|
1996
|
2.9
|
4.0
|
298.49
|
.8
|
318.18
|
.5
|
1.0250
|
314.84
|
4.3
|
308.40
|
1.0312
|
318.01
|
1997
|
2.1
|
4.3
|
308.40
|
.8
|
331.25
|
.6
|
.9883
|
311.21
|
4.6
|
318.33
|
1.0269
|
326.89
|
1998
|
1.3
|
4.6
|
318.33
|
.9
|
336.35
|
.6
|
.9729
|
313.74
|
5.0
|
325.96
|
1.0214
|
332.94
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
5.0
|
325.96
|
1.0
|
348.84
|
.6
|
1.1118
|
371.45
|
5.4
|
332.67
|
1.0229
|
340.27
|
2000
|
3.5
|
5.4
|
332.67
|
1.0
|
382.42
|
.7
|
.9433
|
324.80
|
5.6
|
353.87
|
1.0221
|
361.68
|
2001
|
2.6
|
5.6
|
353.87
|
1.1
|
383.77
|
.7
|
1.0086
|
366.20
|
6.0
|
366.44
|
1.0229
|
374.84
|
2002
|
1.4
|
6.0
|
366.44
|
1.3
|
405.72
|
1.2
|
1.0099
|
375.27
|
6.1
|
377.90
|
1.0179
|
384.67
|
2003
|
2.1
|
6.1
|
377.90
|
1.3
|
418.57
|
.8
|
.9853
|
380.17
|
6.5
|
392.85
|
1.0202
|
400.78
|
2004
|
2.7
|
6.5
|
392.85
|
1.3
|
428.04
|
.9
|
.9707
|
391.64
|
7.0
|
409.65
|
1.0170
|
416.60
|
2005
|
2.0
|
7.0
|
409.65
|
1.3
|
438.06
|
1.0
|
.9619
|
401.94
|
7.3
|
423.65
|
1.0170
|
430.83
|
2006
|
2.2
|
7.3
|
423.65
|
1.4
|
453.12
|
1.0
|
.9673
|
418.80
|
7.7
|
438.36
|
1.0170
|
445.79
|
2007
|
2.7
|
7.7
|
438.36
|
1.4
|
471.83
|
1.0
|
.9678
|
435.71
|
8.1
|
455.70
|
1.0170
|
463.42
|
2008
|
2.8
|
8.1
|
455.70
|
1.4
|
490.28
|
1.0
|
.9652
|
452.16
|
8.4
|
474.09
|
1.0170
|
482.13
|
2009
|
2.8
|
8.4
|
474.09
|
1.4
|
509.71
|
1.0
|
.9660
|
470.81
|
8.8
|
492.95
|
1.0170
|
501.31
|
2010
|
2.8
|
8.8
|
492.95
|
1.5
|
530.98
|
1.0
|
.9668
|
489.90
|
9.2
|
512.48
|
1.0170
|
521.17
|
2011
|
2.8
|
9.2
|
512.48
|
1.5
|
553.07
|
1.2
|
.9712
|
511.67
|
9.5
|
532.80
|
1.0170
|
541.84
|
2012
|
2.8
|
9.5
|
532.80
|
1.5
|
574.09
|
1.3
|
.9695
|
531.00
|
9.8
|
553.97
|
1.0170
|
563.37
|
2013
|
2.8
|
9.8
|
553.97
|
1.6
|
597.20
|
1.3
|
.9717
|
553.39
|
10.0
|
575.98
|
1.0170
|
585.75
|
2014
|
2.8
|
10.0
|
575.98
|
1.6
|
621.34
|
1.4
|
.9717
|
575.35
|
10.2
|
598.93
|
1.0170
|
609.09
|
1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.