Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of year |
Awards
during year |
Terminations
during year |
In force
end of year |
Current-payment status
end of year |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of year |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of year |
Average
benefit |
||
Male
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
14.3
|
0.8
|
$215.27
|
0.1
|
$229.80
|
0.1
|
0.9086
|
$223.56
|
0.7
|
$248.42
|
0.9996
|
$248.32
|
1985
|
3.1
|
.6
|
333.63
|
1/
|
339.63
|
.1
|
.8527
|
293.32
|
.6
|
350.63
|
1.0018
|
351.25
|
1990
|
5.4
|
.5
|
433.41
|
456.60
|
.1
|
.8063
|
368.33
|
.5
|
466.39
|
1.0107
|
471.40
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
.5
|
544.61
|
552.58
|
.9601
|
536.50
|
.5
|
560.13
|
1.0317
|
577.89
|
||
1996
|
2.9
|
.5
|
560.13
|
514.01
|
.8297
|
478.21
|
.4
|
581.27
|
1.0343
|
601.21
|
||
1997
|
2.1
|
.4
|
581.27
|
557.59
|
.8874
|
526.67
|
.4
|
598.62
|
1.0345
|
619.30
|
||
1998
|
1.3
|
.4
|
598.62
|
598.56
|
1.0442
|
633.21
|
.4
|
603.27
|
1.0336
|
623.53
|
||
1999
|
2 2.5
|
.4
|
603.27
|
604.35
|
.9914
|
613.02
|
.4
|
618.25
|
1.0388
|
642.26
|
||
2000
|
3.5
|
.4
|
618.25
|
643.40
|
.9432
|
603.55
|
.4
|
642.60
|
1.0424
|
669.83
|
||
2001
|
2.6
|
.4
|
642.60
|
678.56
|
1.0271
|
677.21
|
.4
|
659.55
|
1.0448
|
689.09
|
||
2002
|
1.4
|
.4
|
659.55
|
838.34
|
.9913
|
662.99
|
.4
|
675.52
|
1.0474
|
707.53
|
||
2003
|
2.1
|
.4
|
675.52
|
664.13
|
.9145
|
630.73
|
.3
|
692.68
|
1.0692
|
740.63
|
||
2004
|
2.7
|
.3
|
692.68
|
589.42
|
.8228
|
585.31
|
.3
|
714.97
|
1.0654
|
761.75
|
||
2005
|
2.0
|
.3
|
714.97
|
604.45
|
.7969
|
581.17
|
.3
|
734.12
|
1.0654
|
782.15
|
||
2006
|
2.2
|
.3
|
734.12
|
623.61
|
.8642
|
648.36
|
.3
|
750.35
|
1.0654
|
799.44
|
||
2007
|
2.7
|
.3
|
750.35
|
644.77
|
.8833
|
680.65
|
.3
|
769.75
|
1.0654
|
820.11
|
||
2008
|
2.8
|
.3
|
769.75
|
668.11
|
.8881
|
702.72
|
.3
|
790.96
|
1.0654
|
842.71
|
||
2009
|
2.8
|
.3
|
790.96
|
691.68
|
.8918
|
725.15
|
.3
|
812.92
|
1.0654
|
866.10
|
||
2010
|
2.8
|
.3
|
812.92
|
716.91
|
.9083
|
759.04
|
.3
|
835.20
|
1.0654
|
889.84
|
||
2011
|
2.8
|
.3
|
835.20
|
744.91
|
.9210
|
790.77
|
.3
|
857.71
|
1.0654
|
913.82
|
||
2012
|
2.8
|
.3
|
857.71
|
773.91
|
.9251
|
815.64
|
.3
|
881.50
|
1.0654
|
939.18
|
||
2013
|
2.8
|
.3
|
881.50
|
804.09
|
.9317
|
844.32
|
.3
|
906.41
|
1.0654
|
965.72
|
||
2014
|
2.8
|
.3
|
906.41
|
836.21
|
.9308
|
867.32
|
.3
|
932.34
|
1.0654
|
993.34
|
||
Female
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
14.3
|
15.4
|
239.54
|
.7
|
317.00
|
1.8
|
.9676
|
264.91
|
14.2
|
276.94
|
1.0017
|
277.41
|
1985
|
3.1
|
10.1
|
363.96
|
.3
|
374.44
|
1.2
|
.9486
|
355.95
|
9.2
|
377.73
|
1.0054
|
379.77
|
1990
|
5.4
|
6.4
|
449.95
|
.2
|
519.47
|
.7
|
.9786
|
464.07
|
5.8
|
477.13
|
1.0123
|
483.02
|
1995
|
2.6
|
4.3
|
556.99
|
.2
|
619.06
|
.5
|
.9612
|
549.31
|
4.0
|
576.11
|
1.0278
|
592.12
|
1996
|
2.9
|
4.0
|
576.11
|
.1
|
620.16
|
.4
|
.9526
|
564.75
|
3.7
|
597.13
|
1.0296
|
614.80
|
1997
|
2.1
|
3.7
|
597.13
|
.1
|
635.72
|
.4
|
.8991
|
548.16
|
3.5
|
616.97
|
1.0331
|
637.36
|
1998
|
1.3
|
3.5
|
616.97
|
.1
|
683.32
|
.3
|
.9594
|
599.63
|
3.3
|
629.78
|
1.0381
|
653.79
|
1999
|
2 2.5
|
3.3
|
629.78
|
.1
|
699.52
|
.3
|
.9565
|
617.45
|
3.1
|
650.56
|
1.0410
|
677.24
|
2000
|
3.5
|
3.1
|
650.56
|
.1
|
719.40
|
.3
|
.9692
|
652.56
|
2.9
|
677.12
|
1.0448
|
707.47
|
2001
|
2.6
|
2.9
|
677.12
|
.1
|
795.90
|
.3
|
1.0104
|
701.98
|
2.7
|
697.79
|
1.0506
|
733.12
|
2002
|
1.4
|
2.7
|
697.79
|
.1
|
833.91
|
.3
|
.9482
|
670.90
|
2.6
|
717.42
|
1.0563
|
757.82
|
2003
|
2.1
|
2.6
|
717.42
|
.1
|
786.85
|
.2
|
.9693
|
710.02
|
2.5
|
736.95
|
1.0634
|
783.66
|
2004
|
2.7
|
2.5
|
736.95
|
.1
|
796.95
|
.2
|
.9336
|
706.63
|
2.3
|
762.74
|
1.0689
|
815.32
|
2005
|
2.0
|
2.3
|
762.74
|
.1
|
817.27
|
.2
|
.8981
|
698.69
|
2.2
|
788.46
|
1.0689
|
842.81
|
2006
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
788.46
|
.1
|
843.17
|
.2
|
.8941
|
720.48
|
2.0
|
816.85
|
1.0689
|
873.16
|
2007
|
2.7
|
2.0
|
816.85
|
.1
|
871.78
|
.2
|
.8910
|
747.46
|
1.9
|
850.28
|
1.0689
|
908.90
|
2008
|
2.8
|
1.9
|
850.28
|
.1
|
903.34
|
.2
|
.8856
|
774.09
|
1.8
|
886.35
|
1.0689
|
947.45
|
2009
|
2.8
|
1.8
|
886.35
|
.1
|
935.22
|
.2
|
.8812
|
802.96
|
1.7
|
924.19
|
1.0689
|
987.90
|
2010
|
2.8
|
1.7
|
924.19
|
.1
|
969.33
|
.2
|
.8772
|
833.39
|
1.6
|
963.77
|
1.0689
|
1,030.21
|
2011
|
2.8
|
1.6
|
963.77
|
.1
|
1,007.19
|
.2
|
.8724
|
864.38
|
1.5
|
1,005.41
|
1.0689
|
1,074.72
|
2012
|
2.8
|
1.5
|
1,005.41
|
.1
|
1,046.40
|
.2
|
.8703
|
899.47
|
1.4
|
1,048.91
|
1.0689
|
1,121.22
|
2013
|
2.8
|
1.4
|
1,048.91
|
.1
|
1,087.20
|
.1
|
.8660
|
933.80
|
1.3
|
1,094.50
|
1.0689
|
1,169.95
|
2014
|
2.8
|
1.3
|
1,094.50
|
.1
|
1,130.63
|
.1
|
.8616
|
969.44
|
1.3
|
1,142.24
|
1.0689
|
1,220.98
|
1Fewer than 50. 2Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.