Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Calendar
period |
Total retired workers
|
Total dependents of
retired workers |
Total survivors of
deceased workers |
Special age-72 benefi-ciaries |
Lump- sum death pay-ments |
Total OASI benefit payments
|
||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-
current- payment |
Total
|
Non-
current- payment |
Total
|
Non-
current- payment |
Total
|
Adjusted
current- payment |
Non-
current- payment |
Total
|
||||||
1980
|
$70,094.9
|
$389.8
|
$70,484.7
|
$7,345.8
|
$173.1
|
$7,518.9
|
$26,227.7
|
$329.5
|
$26,557.3
|
$119.2
|
$394.4
|
$103,788.3
|
$1,286.1
|
$105,074.4
|
1981
|
82,670.6
|
1,068.6
|
83,739.2
|
8,569.3
|
262.0
|
8,831.3
|
30,296.3
|
486.0
|
30,782.3
|
110.1
|
332.5
|
121,647.5
|
2,147.9
|
123,795.4
|
1982
|
93,999.6
|
1,250.7
|
95,250.3
|
9,490.0
|
236.8
|
9,726.8
|
33,099.5
|
420.5
|
33,519.9
|
99.6
|
203.3
|
136,689.6
|
2,110.3
|
138,799.8
|
1983
|
101,542.9
|
2,154.1
|
103,697.0
|
10,096.4
|
335.0
|
10,431.4
|
34,454.0
|
629.8
|
35,083.8
|
84.7
|
205.4
|
146,178.4
|
3,324.0
|
149,502.4
|
1984
|
108,788.7
|
1,303.9
|
110,092.6
|
10,740.9
|
212.5
|
10,953.4
|
36,061.4
|
472.5
|
36,533.9
|
70.6
|
211.5
|
155,662.3
|
2,199.8
|
157,862.0
|
1985
|
116,042.9
|
776.7
|
116,819.6
|
11,432.5
|
224.5
|
11,657.0
|
38,121.1
|
497.5
|
38,618.6
|
56.9
|
207.5
|
165,654.3
|
1,705.3
|
167,359.6
|
1986
|
123,034.7
|
549.0
|
123,583.7
|
12,119.7
|
198.7
|
12,318.3
|
40,273.5
|
419.0
|
40,692.6
|
46.9
|
202.9
|
175,474.6
|
1,369.9
|
176,844.4
|
1987
|
128,148.6
|
364.4
|
128,513.1
|
12,602.8
|
177.6
|
12,780.4
|
41,714.5
|
397.4
|
42,111.9
|
35.7
|
203.1
|
182,502.5
|
1,141.6
|
183,644.1
|
1988
|
136,571.7
|
415.2
|
136,986.9
|
13,354.2
|
156.4
|
13,510.7
|
44,312.3
|
475.2
|
44,787.5
|
28.5
|
208.1
|
194,266.9
|
1,254.8
|
195,521.7
|
1989
|
145,214.2
|
812.7
|
146,026.9
|
14,112.1
|
191.7
|
14,303.8
|
46,948.4
|
470.1
|
47,418.5
|
21.3
|
206.5
|
206,296.6
|
1,680.3
|
207,977.0
|
1990
|
155,939.6
|
816.5
|
156,756.1
|
15,076.3
|
193.1
|
15,269.4
|
50,230.3
|
515.5
|
50,745.8
|
16.1
|
205.6
|
221,262.9
|
1,730.0
|
222,992.9
|
1991
|
168,394.7
|
747.4
|
169,142.1
|
16,202.5
|
188.6
|
16,391.2
|
54,130.8
|
558.1
|
54,688.8
|
12.1
|
202.0
|
238,740.7
|
1,695.6
|
240,436.2
|
1992
|
178,604.8
|
767.6
|
179,372.4
|
17,107.9
|
196.2
|
17,304.0
|
57,472.7
|
576.1
|
58,048.8
|
8.7
|
205.5
|
253,194.6
|
1,744.8
|
254,939.4
|
1993
|
187,784.9
|
655.1
|
188,439.9
|
17,866.2
|
52.5
|
17,918.8
|
60,508.5
|
716.7
|
61,225.3
|
6.0
|
214.5
|
266,166.2
|
1,638.3
|
267,804.5
|
1994
|
195,834.1
|
566.1
|
196,400.2
|
18,449.1
|
42.0
|
18,491.1
|
63,290.1
|
712.4
|
64,002.6
|
3.8
|
220.0
|
277,577.7
|
1,540.1
|
279,117.7
|
1995
|
204,548.9
|
766.4
|
205,315.3
|
19,027.8
|
35.1
|
19,062.8
|
66,235.7
|
847.4
|
67,083.1
|
2.6
|
218.5
|
289,815.4
|
1,866.9
|
291,682.3
|
1996
|
212,625.8
|
797.1
|
213,422.9
|
19,476.8
|
37.0
|
19,513.8
|
68,981.2
|
777.4
|
69,758.7
|
1.4
|
217.5
|
301,085.8
|
1,828.6
|
302,914.4
|
1997
|
221,961.4
|
1,592.5
|
223,553.9
|
19,942.6
|
93.3
|
20,035.9
|
71,490.0
|
1,014.8
|
72,504.9
|
.6
|
215.8
|
313,395.3
|
2,915.7
|
316,311.1
|
1998
|
230,521.3
|
1,802.5
|
232,323.9
|
20,212.6
|
122.5
|
20,335.1
|
72,852.1
|
1,088.3
|
73,940.4
|
.3
|
217.7
|
323,586.8
|
3,230.5
|
326,817.3
|
1999
|
236,963.1
|
1,515.4
|
238,478.5
|
20,302.3
|
104.5
|
20,406.8
|
74,305.4
|
1,030.8
|
75,336.2
|
-.2
|
215.9
|
331,571.2
|
2,865.9
|
334,437.2
|
2000
|
250,191.2
|
3,351.2
|
253,542.4
|
20,899.4
|
202.7
|
21,102.1
|
76,737.9
|
1,110.5
|
77,848.4
|
-.6
|
214.1
|
347,828.8
|
4,877.7
|
352,706.5
|
2001
|
267,341.2
|
1,634.9
|
268,976.1
|
21,787.8
|
35.2
|
21,823.0
|
80,003.6
|
1,355.6
|
81,359.2
|
-.6
|
211.9
|
369,132.8
|
3,236.9
|
372,369.7
|
2002
|
280,123.1
|
1,501.4
|
281,624.4
|
22,238.3
|
120.7
|
22,359.0
|
82,700.3
|
1,273.9
|
83,974.2
|
-.2
|
212.6
|
385,061.8
|
3,108.2
|
388,170.0
|
2003
|
289,814.8
|
1,702.8
|
291,517.6
|
22,396.7
|
136.6
|
22,533.4
|
84,338.3
|
1,296.7
|
85,634.9
|
4/
|
206.0
|
396,549.8
|
3,342.2
|
399,892.0
|
2004
|
302,565.4
|
1,695.6
|
304,261.0
|
22,712.1
|
166.8
|
22,878.9
|
86,331.4
|
1,405.7
|
87,737.1
|
-.1
|
205.1
|
411,608.9
|
3,473.1
|
415,082.0
|
2005-I
|
78,748.1
|
549.6
|
79,297.7
|
5,793.6
|
32.1
|
5,825.7
|
22,124.6
|
308.3
|
22,432.9
|
56.2
|
106,666.3
|
946.2
|
107,612.5
|
|
2005-II
|
79,075.0
|
640.6
|
79,715.5
|
5,789.3
|
63.1
|
5,852.4
|
22,187.6
|
388.7
|
22,576.3
|
53.0
|
107,051.9
|
1,145.3
|
108,197.2
|
|
2005-III
|
79,623.6
|
429.0
|
80,052.6
|
5,790.2
|
52.6
|
5,842.8
|
22,206.4
|
344.7
|
22,551.1
|
49.8
|
107,620.3
|
876.1
|
108,496.4
|
|
2005-IV
|
80,100.7
|
763.2
|
80,863.9
|
5,802.2
|
91.6
|
5,893.8
|
22,287.4
|
321.0
|
22,608.4
|
...
|
46.2
|
108,190.3
|
1,222.0
|
109,412.2
|
2006-I
|
81,902.6
|
524.2
|
82,426.8
|
5,908.6
|
30.6
|
5,939.2
|
22,757.6
|
321.7
|
23,079.3
|
...
|
56.3
|
110,568.7
|
932.8
|
111,501.5
|
2006-II
|
82,330.8
|
616.3
|
82,947.2
|
5,909.6
|
60.5
|
5,970.1
|
22,834.0
|
406.1
|
23,240.1
|
...
|
53.0
|
111,074.4
|
1,136.0
|
112,210.4
|
2006-III
|
82,989.4
|
409.4
|
83,398.8
|
5,914.6
|
50.2
|
5,964.8
|
22,861.1
|
359.6
|
23,220.7
|
...
|
49.9
|
111,765.1
|
869.1
|
112,634.2
|
2006-IV
|
83,571.5
|
797.2
|
84,368.7
|
5,932.6
|
91.9
|
6,024.5
|
22,958.4
|
342.8
|
23,301.2
|
...
|
46.2
|
112,462.5
|
1,278.2
|
113,740.7
|
2007-I
|
85,701.5
|
585.1
|
86,286.6
|
6,058.2
|
34.1
|
6,092.3
|
23,504.0
|
336.2
|
23,840.2
|
...
|
56.3
|
115,263.7
|
1,011.7
|
116,275.4
|
2007-II
|
86,224.5
|
687.1
|
86,911.6
|
6,062.7
|
67.5
|
6,130.1
|
23,598.0
|
424.5
|
24,022.5
|
...
|
53.0
|
115,885.1
|
1,232.2
|
117,117.3
|
2007-III
|
86,994.7
|
456.9
|
87,451.6
|
6,070.8
|
56.0
|
6,126.7
|
23,638.7
|
375.8
|
24,014.5
|
...
|
49.9
|
116,704.2
|
938.6
|
117,642.7
|
2007-IV
|
87,696.7
|
880.4
|
88,577.1
|
6,092.8
|
102.0
|
6,194.8
|
23,756.3
|
359.9
|
24,116.3
|
...
|
46.2
|
117,545.9
|
1,388.5
|
118,934.4
|
2008-I
|
90,459.5
|
649.3
|
91,108.8
|
6,256.4
|
37.9
|
6,294.3
|
24,457.2
|
350.9
|
24,808.1
|
...
|
56.2
|
121,173.1
|
1,094.3
|
122,267.4
|
2008-II
|
91,086.6
|
761.9
|
91,848.6
|
6,265.4
|
74.8
|
6,340.2
|
24,568.1
|
443.3
|
25,011.4
|
...
|
53.0
|
121,920.1
|
1,333.1
|
123,253.2
|
2008-III
|
91,988.7
|
506.9
|
92,495.7
|
6,277.8
|
62.1
|
6,339.9
|
24,621.7
|
392.3
|
25,014.0
|
...
|
49.8
|
122,888.2
|
1,011.2
|
123,899.3
|
2008-IV
|
92,845.9
|
970.5
|
93,816.4
|
6,305.4
|
112.7
|
6,418.2
|
24,760.1
|
377.7
|
25,137.8
|
...
|
46.2
|
123,911.4
|
1,507.1
|
125,418.5
|
2009-I
|
95,993.5
|
742.8
|
96,736.3
|
6,487.7
|
43.3
|
6,531.0
|
25,531.4
|
366.6
|
25,898.0
|
...
|
56.2
|
128,012.6
|
1,209.0
|
129,221.5
|
2009-II
|
96,812.5
|
869.4
|
97,681.9
|
6,507.0
|
85.5
|
6,592.4
|
25,660.4
|
463.3
|
26,123.7
|
...
|
52.9
|
128,979.9
|
1,471.1
|
130,450.9
|
2009-III
|
97,942.7
|
579.9
|
98,522.6
|
6,529.8
|
71.1
|
6,600.9
|
25,730.4
|
409.8
|
26,140.2
|
...
|
49.8
|
130,202.9
|
1,110.6
|
131,313.5
|
2009-IV
|
99,061.6
|
1,079.9
|
100,141.5
|
6,569.4
|
127.0
|
6,696.3
|
25,892.7
|
396.7
|
26,289.3
|
...
|
46.2
|
131,523.6
|
1,649.8
|
133,173.4
|
2010-I
|
102,575.2
|
759.3
|
103,334.5
|
6,767.4
|
44.3
|
6,811.7
|
26,714.0
|
380.4
|
27,094.4
|
...
|
56.2
|
136,056.6
|
1,240.1
|
137,296.7
|
2010-II
|
103,493.4
|
893.0
|
104,386.4
|
6,790.1
|
87.6
|
6,877.7
|
26,857.1
|
480.9
|
27,338.0
|
...
|
52.9
|
137,140.5
|
1,514.4
|
138,655.0
|
2010-III
|
104,768.5
|
592.8
|
105,361.2
|
6,816.9
|
72.6
|
6,889.5
|
26,940.5
|
425.2
|
27,365.7
|
...
|
49.8
|
138,525.8
|
1,140.4
|
139,666.2
|
2010-IV
|
106,079.8
|
1,161.4
|
107,241.2
|
6,861.1
|
133.6
|
6,994.7
|
27,120.6
|
414.3
|
27,534.8
|
...
|
46.1
|
140,061.4
|
1,755.4
|
141,816.8
|
2011-I
|
109,934.7
|
924.3
|
110,859.0
|
7,070.4
|
53.9
|
7,124.3
|
27,991.0
|
397.1
|
28,388.1
|
...
|
56.1
|
144,996.1
|
1,431.4
|
146,427.5
|
2011-II
|
110,961.4
|
1,079.5
|
112,041.0
|
7,096.3
|
106.2
|
7,202.5
|
28,150.7
|
502.2
|
28,653.0
|
...
|
52.9
|
146,208.4
|
1,740.8
|
147,949.3
|
2011-III
|
112,386.6
|
721.3
|
113,107.9
|
7,126.8
|
88.4
|
7,215.3
|
28,250.6
|
443.9
|
28,694.5
|
...
|
49.7
|
147,764.0
|
1,303.4
|
149,067.4
|
2011-IV
|
113,881.7
|
1,317.0
|
115,198.7
|
7,175.5
|
156.2
|
7,331.7
|
28,451.7
|
435.0
|
28,886.7
|
...
|
46.1
|
149,508.9
|
1,954.3
|
151,463.2
|
2012-I
|
118,110.9
|
1,010.3
|
119,121.3
|
7,396.8
|
58.9
|
7,455.7
|
29,379.0
|
414.6
|
29,793.7
|
...
|
56.1
|
154,886.7
|
1,540.0
|
156,426.7
|
2012-II
|
119,305.0
|
1,180.4
|
120,485.4
|
7,425.6
|
116.1
|
7,541.7
|
29,565.0
|
524.6
|
30,089.6
|
...
|
52.8
|
156,295.5
|
1,874.0
|
158,169.6
|
2012-III
|
120,937.8
|
788.4
|
121,726.2
|
7,459.9
|
96.7
|
7,556.6
|
29,691.9
|
463.5
|
30,155.4
|
...
|
49.7
|
158,089.6
|
1,398.3
|
159,487.8
|
2012-IV
|
122,665.9
|
1,445.2
|
124,111.1
|
7,513.5
|
171.1
|
7,684.6
|
29,926.2
|
457.1
|
30,383.3
|
...
|
46.1
|
160,105.6
|
2,119.5
|
162,225.1
|
2013-I
|
127,306.2
|
1,100.3
|
128,406.5
|
7,746.6
|
64.2
|
7,810.8
|
30,921.4
|
431.9
|
31,353.2
|
...
|
56.0
|
165,974.2
|
1,652.4
|
167,626.5
|
2013-II
|
128,604.5
|
1,286.3
|
129,890.8
|
7,775.8
|
126.5
|
7,902.3
|
31,129.7
|
546.7
|
31,676.4
|
...
|
52.8
|
167,510.0
|
2,012.2
|
169,522.2
|
2013-III
|
130,393.4
|
858.6
|
131,252.0
|
7,811.1
|
105.3
|
7,916.3
|
31,279.6
|
482.7
|
31,762.4
|
...
|
49.7
|
169,484.1
|
1,496.2
|
170,980.3
|
2013-IV
|
132,320.3
|
1,584.0
|
133,904.3
|
7,866.7
|
187.0
|
8,053.7
|
31,542.2
|
479.4
|
32,021.5
|
...
|
46.1
|
171,729.2
|
2,296.4
|
174,025.6
|
2014-I
|
137,353.9
|
1,171.4
|
138,525.3
|
8,109.4
|
68.4
|
8,177.7
|
32,605.0
|
449.7
|
33,054.6
|
...
|
56.0
|
178,068.3
|
1,745.5
|
179,813.8
|
2014-II
|
138,709.3
|
1,372.3
|
140,081.5
|
8,137.1
|
134.8
|
8,271.9
|
32,835.4
|
569.5
|
33,404.9
|
...
|
52.8
|
179,681.7
|
2,129.4
|
181,811.1
|
2014-III
|
140,606.0
|
914.1
|
141,520.1
|
8,171.7
|
112.1
|
8,283.7
|
33,008.3
|
502.6
|
33,510.9
|
...
|
49.7
|
181,785.9
|
1,578.4
|
183,364.3
|
2014-IV
|
142,676.5
|
1,724.2
|
144,400.7
|
8,227.3
|
201.6
|
8,428.9
|
33,297.9
|
502.7
|
33,800.7
|
...
|
46.0
|
184,201.7
|
2,474.6
|
186,676.3
|
1Adjusted for amounts paid to dually-entitled beneficiaries (retired worker current-payment amount less the amount of reduced secondary benefits). 2Adjusted for amounts paid to dually-entitled beneficiaries (dependents of retired workers current-payment amount plus the amount of reduced spouse benefits). 3Adjusted for amounts paid to dually-entitled beneficiaries (survivors of deceased workers current-payment amount plus the amount of reduced widow(er) and parent benefits). 4Less than $50,000. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.